State House Shuffle

It's a good time to be a Democrat. As it looks increasingly like Democrats will take control of both houses of Congress, it also looks like that on November 8, Democrats will control nearly 30 of the governorships around the country. Let's take a look at the 35 races. 15 states do not have gubernatorial contests this year.

The New York Times 2006 Election Guide currently projects 13 safe Republican governorships, including six states where the governor is not up for reelection. The states with contests that are expected to go red are: Idaho, South Dakota, Nebraska, Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Connecticut. Of these only Idaho will elect a new governor, the others will all reelect the incumbent. There are six states where the expected outcome is Republican, including the Governator in California, Alabama, Florida, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Hawaii. Only Florida, where Jeb Bush is term-limited, will elect a new governor.

On the Democratic side, fifteen are deemed safe for the Democrats, with seven of those holding elections, including Arizona, New Mexico, Kansas, Tennessee, Ohio, New York, and New Hampshire. New York and Ohio will elect new Governors, Eliot Spitzer in New York and Ted Strickland in Ohio. Eleven other races are trending Democratic: Oregon, Wyoming, Colorado, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Maine. Colorado, Arkansas, and Massachusetts will all elect new Governors and all of them are replacing outgoing Republicans. Here in Maryland, incumbent Robert Ehrlich will lose to Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley.

That leaves five tossups. Alaska, where Frank Murkowski lost his primary and Republican Sarah Palin is facing off against former Governor Tony Knowles. It's cold in Alaska, no reason the state shouldn't be blue. In Nevada, the incumbent is term-limited and the race has recently featured some serious personal attacks on the two candidates. This winner is whoever is still standing on November 7. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) is holding off a late challenge from Democrat Mike Hatch in one of the "bluest" states in the country. In Iowa, Democrat Tom Vilsack is retiring and Republican Representative Jim Nussle is looking like he will capture the state house for the Republicans. Jennifer Granholm in Michigan is also holding off a late push from her Republican opponent.

So what's it all mean? Prediction: Democrats 30, Republicans 20.