House of Representatives Update

"No, I'm sorry Ms. Bono-Mack, you may not vote twice, just because you married another House member." Yes, Mary Bono (R-CA), the widow of our dear friend, Sonny, married fellow Representative Connie Mack (R-FL) earlier this month. While it seems that the two of them are safe in their seats in the House, what does the rest of the table look like?

Can the Democrats increase their margins? Can the Republicans claw their way back from the pit? The thing about House races is that as soon as you get elected, you have to start campaigning again, especially if you are in a district that is competitive. Granted with Gerrymandering, there are fewer of those around, but there are some seats that will be newsworthy in 2008.

Larry Sabato, over there at the Crystal Ball again, has come out with his Congressional outlook. He starts off by saying,

Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often-years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other.

Since 1970 we have had five of those years:

[We could have a quiz and make you name them . . . nah, here they are]

• 1974 - a direct result of Watergate, the Democrats netted 48 House seats (along with 75 freshmen, who shook up the House)
• 1980 - The Republican landslide with Ronald Reagan's initial election, the GOP added 33 House seats. It didn't give them the majority, but it came damn close.
• 1982 - And the pendulum swings back. During a recession, Democrats won back 26 of the 33 seats they had lost two years earlier.
• 1994 - The Contract with America and our man Newt. Forty years of Democratic control of the House came to an end, as the GOP added 52 seats
• 2006 - After 12 years, Democrats screamed back gaining 30 House seats

There is more good news for the Democrats in this election cycle [from Sabato]:

1. For the first time in at least two decades, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has out-raised the National Republican Congressional Committee, and by the sizeable margin of $56.6 million to $40.7 million (with cash on hand: $29.2 million D to $2.5 million R).
2. Freshmen Democrats, many of them elected from normally GOP constituencies in 2006 and thus potentially vulnerable [see my comments above], have been doing particularly well in fundraising.
3. Out of 23 open seats for 2008, 17 are held by Republicans. Open seats give the opposition party the best chance for a takeover in many instances. You will note below that seven of these are rated as toss-ups.

Here's how Sabato is calling the races in the 23 districts where the incumbent is retiring:

• Alabama 2 - (Terry Everett, R) - Safe R
• California 52 (Duncan Hunter, R) - Safe R
• Colorado 6 (Tom Tancredo, R) - Safe R
• Louisiana 4 (Jim McCrery III, R) - Safe R
• Mississippi 3 (Chip Pickering, Jr., R) - Safe R
• Ohio 7 (Dave Hobson, R) - Safe R
• Illinois 18 (Ray LaHood, R) - Likely R
• New Jersey 3 (Jim Saxton, R) - Likely R
• New Mexico 2 (Steve Pearce, R) - Likely R
• Wyoming AL (Barbara Cubin, R) - Likely R
• Illinois 14 (Dennis Hastert, R) - Leans R
• New Jersey 7 (Mike Ferguson, R) - Toss-up
• Arizona 1 (Rick Renzi, R) - Toss-up
• Illinois 11 (Jerry Weller, R) - Toss-up
• Minnesota 3 (Jim Ramstad, R) - Toss-up
• New Mexico 1 (Heather Wilson, R) - Toss-up
• Ohio 15 (Deborah Pryce, R) - Toss-up
• Ohio 16 (Ralph Regula, R) - Toss-up
• Indiana 7 (Julia Carson, D) - Likely D
• Colorado 2 (Mark Udall, D) - Safe D
• Maine 1 (Tom Allen, D) - Safe D
• New Mexico 3 (Tom Udall, D) - Safe D
• New York 21 (Michael McNulty, D) - Safe D

There are many bridges to cross between now and election day. A lot will also hinge on who is the nominee of each party for president and how big the coattails are for those down the food chain. Stay tuned.

Whither the Senate?

Currently the Democrats hold a one vote majority in the Senate. This could very well change come next November. The Republicans are defending twice the number of seats as the Democrats and several of the seats are open because the incumbent is leaving.

Larry Sabato, writer of Sabato's Crystal ball says on his blog,

Look at recent history. The Senate has changed party control six times: in 1980 (D to R), 1986 (R to D), 1994 (D to R), 2001 (R to D), 2002 (D to R), and 2006 (R to D). This is no longer a rare event. And the Democrats now control the Senate by the slimmest of margins, 51 to 49. Surely, then, Republicans have a real chance to recapture Congress' upper chamber in 2008.

Surely not. While strange things happen in politics, and the election is almost a year away, it would be truly extraordinary if the GOP seized the Senate. In fact, Democrats have an excellent chance to expand their margin of control, perhaps significantly. Let's go to the states to see how.

Sabato believes that of the thirty-five Senate races in question, twenty-five of them are locks for the party that holds the seat (11 D, 14 R):

• Alabama - Jeff Sessions (R)
• Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D)
• Delaware - Joe Biden (D) (we're guessing that presidential thing won't work out so well)
• Georgia - Saxby Chambliss (R) (and this upsets me, I would like nothing more than for him to lose badly)
• Idaho - the departure of Larry Craig (R) is leading to the running of the GOP Lt. Gov. of Idaho, Jim Risch, who will almost certainly be the next Senator (that's how things go there in Idaho)
• Illinois - Dick Durbin (D)
• Iowa - Tom Harkin (D)
• Kansas - Pat Roberts (R)
• Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) - there was a rumor that he was going to get a good challenge, but that has vanished.
• Nebraska - Chuck Hagel is leaving the Senate and the Republican former Governor Mike Johanns should win.
• Massachusetts - John Kerry (D) - oh, yeah, him.
• Michigan - Carl Levin (D)
• Mississippi - Thad Cochran (R)
• Montana - Max Baucus (D)
• New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (D) - and very, very old in his second Senate career.
• North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole
• Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe (R)
• Rhode Island - Jack Reed (D)
• South Carolina - Lindsay Graham (R)
• South Dakota - Tim Johnson (D)
• Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (R)
• Texas - John Cornyn (R)
• West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (D)
• Wyoming - Mike Enzi (R)
• Wyoming - John Barasso (R) - he was appointed to fill out the late Craig Thomas's term and should win on his own.

So what of the other ten elections?

• Alaska - Ted Stevens (R) - Oh, that this race should be competitive. Stevens may face a primary challenge as well as a stiff opponent in the general election.
• Colorado - Open seat - Wayne Allard (R) pledged to leave after two terms and is doing exactly that. The new "purple" state may very well give the Democrats a pick-up in 2008.
• Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (D) has been targeted for poor performance post-Katrina, so she is in the bullseye of the Senate races. Given the swing to Republicans in the state (see Bobby Jindal's election as governor and the fleeing of the state of the democratic voting bloc), this race is a toss-up and may very well fall into the "red."
• Maine - Susan Collins (R) is a dying breed in the Senate, a moderate Republican. She is facing off against Maine's lone Congressman and could get knocked off. Still rated as a toss-up.
• Minnesota - Norm Coleman (R) - is Al Franken enough to put Paul Wellstone's seat back in the Democratic column? Remember, this is the state that elected Jesse Ventura governor.
• Mississippi - Trent Lott (R) is taking his marbles and going home. While the Republican Governor of the state, Haley Barbour, has not yet said when the special election will be held, he will have appointed someone to sit in the Senate to gain the stink of incumbency. For that, this election is leaning Republican.
• New Hampshire - John Sununu (R) is in big trouble in the Granite state, where Republicans are dropping like flies. He is running against popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen and she will likely win for a Democratic pickup.
• New Mexico - Open seat - Pete Domenici (St. Pete, as he is known in NM) is retiring due to illness. This seat will likely stay Republican unless Governor Bill Richardson can be persuaded to run when (note when, not if) his presidential campaign stalls.
• Oregon - Gordon Smith (R) normally gets little opposition here. Since he is getting some now, the race is being noticed, but for the time being, he's safe.
• Virginia - John Warner (R) is retiring. It is very likely that people will notice little difference as another Warner will likely slip into the seat. Mark Warner, Virginia's popular ex-Governor has announced and will likely face his predecessor in the Virginia state house, Jim Gilmore.

Gut check early prediction for the next Senate:
58 Democrats, 42 Republicans (note, that is still two shy of the presidential override margin, but a Democratic president should come along with it).

The Ioway to the White House (Democrats)

About three weeks from now, Democratic voters will convene for the Iowa Caucuses. On the Democratic side, it has come down to a horse race between Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. I still believe that when it comes right down to it, people will go into the polling place and say to themselves, "I can't bring myself to vote for a woman, or a black man." This is what John Edwards is counting on. He is not running for second place a second time.

However this all shakes out, the latest polls are showing that any of those three Democrats will beat the Republican nominee (in the case of Mike Huckabee, by double digits).

In the interests of full disclosure, there are other candidates running for the Democratic nomination. No, really there are.

The rest of the field:

• Senator Joe Biden (DE) - again, as I have said before, he's really running for Secretary of State.
• Senator Chris Dodd (CT) - not a chance, Chris, go back to the Senate.
• Former Senator Mike Gravel (AK/VA) - every time I say his name, Mrs. BA goes, "Who?"
• Representative Dennis Kucinich (OH) - he's got the UFO lovers vote sewn up
• Governor Bill Richardson (NM) - I really like him, but he is running for the vice presidency.

So how do we think Iowa will shake out? Here's the predicted order of finish for the first three contests (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina):

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Edwards

The lesser candidates will likely not survive after this point. Further, there is a significant possibility that the Democrats will see a brokered convention because they apportion their delegates differently than the Republicans. It is not winner take all, and will the three front runners all close in poll numbers the number of delegates for each contest could get split three ways.

Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

I Heart Huckabee?

I would like to say I thought this all the time, but it would conflict with my other belief that America does not elect a president with a vowel at the end of his name. With those disclaimers, what is up with Mike Huckabee? The new man from Hope, Arkansas, albeit from the other side of the aisle, is positioning himself to win Iowa and possibly South Carolina.

With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, here are my predictions for what the Republican field might look like going into Tsunami Tuesday.

Here are the Republican candidates, in case you have been living in a vacuum or under a rock:

• Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York
• Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas
• Duncan Hunter, Congressman from California
• John McCain, Senator from Arizona
• Ron Paul, Representative from Texas
• Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
• Tom Tancredo, Congressman from Colorado
• Fred Thompson, Actor, former Senator from Tennessee

The Washington Post has started a series on the candidates, which has been very good. It focuses on the "front-runners" and for the Republicans, that means, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and Thompson. While Congressmen Paul, Tancredo, and Hunter are certainly interesting in their own right, they will not be the nominee of their party. So, for our purposes here, they are not a factor.

Iowa: The Republicans are starving for someone that thinks like they do. Despite Mitt Romney's millions of dollars spent in the Hawkeye State, I don't think it's going to happen for him. Ditto for Rudy. Iowans will go for the guy who sounds like them.

Projected Finish:

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Giuliani
4. Thompson
5. McCain

New Hampshire: Romney's last stand. If he can't win here, next to his putative home of Massachusetts, stick a fork in him, he's done. McCain needs the big win, too, but again, as I have said all along, I never thought he would make it this far.

Projected Finish:

1. Romney
2. Giuliani
3. Huckabee
4. Thompson
5. McCain

South Carolina: The third prize in the front-loaded delegate sweepstakes. McCain has spent a lot of time here and, unfortunately it is not paying off for him. He will probably make it to this primary and they quietly walk away.

Projected Finish:

1. Huckabee
2. Giuliani
3. Romney
4. McCain
5. Thompson

Once these three contests are over, I think that both McCain and Thompson will withdraw. Giuliani still leads in most national polls on the race for the nomination, but Huckabee is closing the ground fast. The big question will be is where do the supporters of McCain and Thompson go when those tents come down? That may be the best news for Mitt Romney. In a three-person race, he will come off as the most "presidential" (again, the vowel thing) and should get a good bump going into "Super-Duper Tuesday."

I still maintain that at least one party or the other may go into their convention without one individual holding enough delegates to get the nomination on the first ballot. God, I would love that. I would take time off to sit in front of C-Span to watch.

Coming next, why can't John Edwards pass Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? Come back soon. I'll be here.

Answers to the second quiz

Here are the answers to the second quiz, which appeared last Sunday.

1. Which member appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a professional athlete?
• Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) in the March 1, 1965 issue. (He was a professional baseball player.)
  
2. How many current governors served in Congress?
• 10 of 50 (Bob Riley - Alabama, Butch Otter - Idaho, Rod Blagojevich - Illinois, Ernie Fletcher - Kentucky, John Baldacci - Maine, Jim Gibbons - Nevada, Jon Corzine - New Jersey, Bill Richardson - New Mexico, Ted Strickland - Ohio, Mark Sanford, South Carolina)
  
3. How many Senators served in the House?
• 49 of 100
  
4. How many Senators are children of Senators?
• Five - Evan Bayh (D-IN), Robert Bennett (R-UT), Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Mark Pryor (D-AR).
  
5. How many presidents has Representative John Dingell (D-Mich.) served under since he was sworn in?
• Ten, Dingell took office in December 1955.
  
6. Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore failed to win 30 percent of the vote in four states in 2000. Name them.
• Alaska (28%), Idaho (28%), Utah (26%), Wyoming (28%)
  
7. Which three states switched their presidential vote from 2000 to 2004?
• Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico

Congress, it's just trivial!

Here are the answers from last week's quiz. How'd you do? Are you ready for some politics? Stay tuned.

1. Which member of Congress is the only one who refuses to disclose his or her date of birth?
• Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) - best the Congressional Biographical Dictionary can say is December 1952.
  
2. Which member of Congress is baseball great Hank Aaron's brother-in-law?
• Representative David Scott (D-GA)
3. Which member of Congress delivered his 2002 opponent's baby?
• Representative Michael Burgess (R-TX)
  
4. Which member of Congress worked for Jerry Springer's 1982 Ohio gubernatorial campaign?
• Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA)
  
5. Which member of Congress carried the "nuclear football" for Presidents Carter and Reagan?
• Representative John Kline (R-MN)
  
6. Which member of Congress is the only member to list the addresses of all his district's bowling alleys on his congressional website? (Oh, think about this one, it's easy!)
• Representative Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) (told you it was easy.)
  

More Questions from the Almanac of American Politics

Here are some more questions from the new issue of the 2008 Almanac of American Politics, which hit bookstores last week. Answers next week.

1. Which member appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a professional athlete?
2. How many current governors served in Congress?
3. How many Senators served in the House?
4. How many Senators are children of Senators?
5. How many presidents has Representative John Dingell (D-Mich.) served under since he was sworn in?
6. Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore failed to win 30 percent of the vote in four states in 2000. Name them.
7. Which three states switched their presidential vote from 2000 to 2004?
   

The Primary Lineup

The New Hampshire Secretary of State has finally declared that the first presidential primary will take place on January 8. With that, the schedule is set.

• January 3, 2008 - Iowa caucuses
• January 5, 2008 - Wyoming caucuses (Republicans)
• January 8, 2008 - New Hampshire primary
• January 15, 2008 - Michigan primary
• January 19, 2008 - Nevada caucus and South Carolina (Republicans) primary
• January 26, 2008 - South Carolina primary (Democrats)
• January 29, 2008 - Florida primary
• February 1, 2008 - Maine caucus (Democrats)
• February 5, 2008 - being dubbed as "Tsunami Tuesday" or "Super Duper Tuesday" when 21 states will hold caucuses or primaries.
  

• Alabama

  Alaska (caucus)

  Arizona

  Arkansas

  California

  Colorado (caucus)

  Connecticut

  Delaware

  Georgia

  Idaho (Democratic caucus)

  Illinois

  Kansas (Democratic caucus)

  Minnesota (caucus)

  Missouri

  New Jersey

  New Mexico (Democrats)

  New York

  North Dakota (caucus)

  Oklahoma

  Tennessee

  Utah

• February 7, 2008 - Hawaii caucuses (Republicans)
• February 9, 2008 - Kansas Republican caucus, Louisiana primary, Nebraska Democratic caucus
• February 10, 2008 - Maine caucuses (Republicans)
• February 12, 2008 - The "Capital Primary" - Washington DC, Maryland, and Virginia primaries
• February 19, 2008 - Hawaii caucuses (Democrats), Washington state and Wisconsin primaries
• March 4, 2008 - Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont primaries
• March 8, 2008 - Wyoming caucus (Democrats)
• March 11, 2008 - Mississippi primary
• April 22 - Pennsylvania primary
• May 6, 2008 - Indiana and North Carolina primaries
• May 13, 2008 - Nebraska primary (Republicans) and West Virginia primary
• May 20, 2008 - Kentucky and Oregon primaries
• May 27, 2008 - Idaho primary (Republicans)
• June 3, 2008 - Montana, New Mexico (Republican), and South Dakota primaries

Get Your Motor Running!

Don't you think that Steppenwolf's "Born to Be Wild" would make an awesome campaign song? This on the heels of Senator Obama's admission that he used illegal drugs and drank in college (well, who didn't really?), maybe he should pick a new song.

But it is time to get pumped for the upcoming presidential campaign. Yes, sure it's been going on for a while, leading to this Onion story, but the Iowa caucuses are less than two months away! I hope that this blog will be your site for finding out who will grab their respective party's crowns and head off to the general election.

As a teaser, here is a short trivia, courtesy of today's Washington Post. Answers next week. And lots more content coming!

"Like us, you probably spend the holidays gathered around a roaring fire, leafing through the family's beloved, dog-eared copy of the Almanac of American Politics. (Did you know that Collin Peterson - the Susan Lucci of Congress - lost four consecutive races for Minnesota's 7th District before he got elected?) To pump you up for the newly released 2008 edition, the publishers offer these brainteasers to share with your loved ones this Thanksgiving."

1. Which member of Congress is the only one who refuses to disclose his or her date of birth?
2. Which member of Congress is baseball great Hank Aaron's brother-in-law?
3. Which member of Congress delivered his 2002 opponent's baby?
4. Which member of Congress worked for Jerry Springer's 1982 Ohio gubernatorial campaign?
5. Which member of Congress carried the "nuclear football" for Presidents Carter and Reagan?
6. Which member of Congress is the only member to list the addresses of all his district's bowling alleys on his congressional website? (Oh, think about this one, it's easy!)
   

Scary Quote of the Week

"I've been planning that myself." - President Bush, asked about the prospect of Putin keeping power next year by becoming prime minister.

This will come as no surprise to some, who believe that the current administration might even plan a terrorist attack (or let one happen) next summer, suspend the Constitution, and call off the 2008 elections to stay in power.

Senator? Do you have a square to spare?

So Larry Craig is staying. Does this mean that his ultimate retirement will mean Idaho will elect a Democrat to replace him? Probably not, but it will certainly make his seat a little more competitive with him staying on the stage too long.

The Republicans have the majority of seats to defend in the 2008 cycle, 22, versus 12 for the Democrats. Five of the Republican seats will be open as the Republican incumbent is retiring.

Here's a rundown on the Senate Races for 2008 and the (very early) predictions:

• Alabama - Jeff Sessions (R) cruises to a third term.


• Alaska - Ted Stevens (R) will be 85 in 2008. Let's hope the Democrats can find a worthy opponent. Ted is definitely a target. Let's say Democratic pickup.


• Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D) vs. whatever sacrificial lamb the Republicans can find. He's probably safe.


• Colorado - Wayne Allard (R) promised to stay for two terms and he's keeping his promise. Congressman Mark Udall (D) is running. Look for a Democratic pickup here, remember the Democratic Convention is in Denver in 2008.


• Delaware - Joe Biden (D), you remember him? The guy running for President? Watch for him to slink back to DE and pick up his campaign to return to the Senate (until a democratic president-elect chooses him for Secretary of State, the job he's really running for). The seat will stay Democratic.


• Georgia - I would love nothing more than to see Saxby Chambliss (R) lose this election. He managed to defeat Max Cleland by calling him unpatriotic. Nice. A veteran in a wheelchair is unpatriotic. Chambliss is not worthy of being a Senator, but I don't see a good enough challenger to unseat him.


• Idaho - Larry Craig (R) is staying until the end of his term. But in this conservative state, that might not be enough to make the state go blue.


• Illinois - Dick Durbin (D) has risen into the party leadership. Illinois loves him and will send him back to the Senate.


• Iowa - Tom Harkin (D) is an institution in this state. No Republican should have a chance.


• Kansas - Pat Roberts (R), see Tom Harkin, but as a Republican.


• Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) is now the Minority Leader in the Senate. He's not going anywhere.


• Louisiana - With the election of Congressman Bobby Jindal (R) as Governor, the state is losing Democrats left and right. Mary Landrieu (D) is certain to be targeted by the Republicans and she is in danger of losing her seat. Republican pickup.


• Maine - Susan Collins (R) is a dying breed, that of a moderate Republican. Tom Allen (D), one of Maine's two Congressmen is already running and it will definitely be a close race. I say Democratic pickup.


• Massachusetts - Hey, remember this guy? He wanted to be president? In one of the bluest states in the nation, John Kerry will stay in the Senate.


• Michigan - Carl Levin (D) has been around the Senate for sometime. While he will be 74 in 2008, he's not heading home. He's safe.


• Minnesota - Norm Coleman (R) should have never been elected. Had Paul Wellstone not died in a plane crash, he wouldn't have. A bevy of characters have lined up to take on Coleman, including comedian Al Franken. Democratic pickup.


• Mississippi - Thad Cochran (R) is the other senator from Mississippi. He will cruise to reelection.


• Montana - Believe it or not, both Senators from Montana are Democrats. Max Baucus (D) has been there a while and should be hard to push aside.


• Nebraska - Chuck Hagel is taking his marbles and going home. Bob Kerrey, the former Senator is being pushed very hard to run for the Senate again. Let's hope so. Democratic pickup.


• New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (D) was called out of retirement to run when Bob Menendez hit the skids in 2002. Lautenberg will be 84 in 2008. Does he have it for another six years? Either way, I think the seat stays democratic.


• New Mexico - St. Pete, Pete Domenici (R) is retiring due to brain disease. There are those that are hoping Bill Richardson (D) will give up the presidency chase and go for this seat instead. This seat's a toss-up.


• North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (R) turns 72 in 2008 and has had some health problems recently. Might she announce her retirement soon? But the seat is likely to stay red.


• Oklahoma - James Inhofe (R) will be 74 in 2008. He may call it quits, but there is currently no real competition for him. Either way, the seat stays in the Republican column.


• Rhode Island - Jack Reed is a nice moderate Democrat. He's safe.


• South Carolina - Lindsay Graham, who made his name as one of Clinton's impeachers, has moved to the center as a Senator. He's very impressive and a shoo-in for reelection.


• South Dakota - Tim Johnson nearly died, but he's running for another term. You want to go negative on this guy? He should be fine.


• Tennessee - Lamar Alexander is quiet, unassuming, and of retirement age. But he's probably staying and should be reelected easily.


• Texas - John Cornyn is one of Bush's closest allies in the Senate. While that is certain to be a handicap for him, he should be safe.


• Virginia - The Commonwealth looks to be changing color and will exchange one Warner for another, as John (R) is retiring and former Governor Mark (D) is running. Democratic pickup.


• West Virginia - John D. Rockefeller IV is still the junior Senator from WV (at 71). He's back for another term.


• Wyoming - Both seats are up for reelection with the passing in 2006 of Craig Thomas. John Barasso was appointed and will run on his own for the completion of Thomas's term. Also up in Mike Enzi. Both should win.

So what's the scorecard?

Current - 49 R, 49 D, 2 I (with the Democrats)

Projected - 44 R, 54 D, 2 I (with the Democrats)

A Look at the House of Representatives

I have been neglectful of this blog for some time. Here we are in October of 2007 and the interminable quest for the presidency continues. Here are a series of posts to update where things stand for the races for the House, the Senate, and of course, the Presidency.

The House of Representatives is currently at 232 Democrats and 200 Republicans. There are currently three vacancies. In Massachusetts, Martin Meehan resigned to become Chancellor of the University of Massachusetts. A special election will take place on October 16. It is expected that Paul Tsongas' widow will win that election and the seat will remain in Democratic hands. Representatives Paul Gillmore (R-OH) and Joann Davis (R-VA) died in office and special elections will be set to fill those vacancies. Neither seat is expected to be competitive.

So what does this mean for 2008? According to Sabato's Crystal Ball, there are a total of sixty-one competitive races in 2008. Twenty-eight of the seats are held by Democrats and thirty-three by Republicans. Sabato defines the race as competitive if the victor won with less than 55 percent of the vote in 2006. This site is watching the "open seat" races, where the representatives have announced their retirements from the House. As of mid-September, this list has nine people on it, seven Republicans and two Democrats, including former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

Several of the seats currently held by Democrats are in Republican districts (Mark Foley's district in Florida, for one) and they will be challenging for Democrats to hold. My early prediction? The House stays in Democratic hands but the majority shrinks. Make me put a number on it? 220-215.

So Where are We?

Yes, I know. It's a been a while. But, please, I can't keep posting to this blog about the goings on in presidential politics. That would only encourage the candidates that we like this marathon campaign season.

But I figured it was time for a little update as the field is shifting. Let's take a look at the Democrats first - for if you can believe it, they are the more stable group.

• Hillary still leads the pack - and I continue to shake my head. I don't get it. It is clear that if she gets the nomination, Republicans will get up out of their graves to vote against her. But Democrats don't see that. Kudos for the ad announcing her campaign song - but MAJOR boos for choosing Celene Dion! She is still the candidate to beat.
• One of the only others in the field that can is Barack Obama. He continues to do well in speaking, fund-raising, no gaffes. As with a woman, we may not be a nation ready to elect a black man, but between the two of them - it's going to be interesting.
• John Edwards. He has been dealing with some issues, mainly the haircut thing. Then his wife, Elizabeth, took on Ann Coulter (LOVED it). I think that Edwards has a really good shot, he just needs to let it ride and perhaps hope for a brokered convention, where the delegates would move to him after it becomes clear that neither Hillary nor Obama can get the nomination.
• Despite his claim that he is after the top job, Bill Richardson is clearly running for Vice President. He would be an outstanding number two for any of the candidates. He has good Clinton ties and would be a great fit for her.
• The Rest of the Field: Biden - again, says he is running for president, but I think really is running to be somebody's Secretary of State. It's the job he has always wanted. Dodd - putting a lot of money in some of the early primary states, it's not going to help. Kucinich - his only chance is with the crazy vote, which he has locked up. Gravel - still asking, who?
• The wallflowers - Al Gore and Wesley Clark. Gore could get into the race and become a serious contender overnight. Clark not so much.

The Republicans are [still] in complete disarray. I believe I could announce for the Republican nomination and get it.

• People scoffed at me when I said that John McCain was not going to get the nomination. He has only about three people still working for him and about that many dollars. I still don't think he makes it past the first set of primaries.
• Rudy Giuliani. I still wonder how a left wing Republican (what we New Yorkers call a Rockefeller Republican) can get the base to support him. He must be doing something right. I always use to say that a candidate with a vowel at the end of his name wouldn't play in the Midwest, but he seems to be doing well all over.
• While Mitt Romney has lost the PETA vote, he is doing well in all areas of the party. He has been raising good money and is clearly gaining momentum.
• We all know what happened the last time the Republicans nominated an actor for the presidency. Can lightning strike Fred Thompson and elevate him to the big house? Stay tuned for that one, but don't go looking for the Law and Order reruns, they will have to be pulled.
• The other guys - Sam Brownback - may God have mercy on our souls if he manages to make it; Mike Huckabee - how far can weight loss carry a man?; Duncan Hunter - one should have more than one issue to run on; Ron Paul - see Dennis Kucinich; Tom Tancredo - see Duncan Hunter; the other Thompson (Tommy), a potential dark horse, but way, way, way outside.

Who Will Be Number 2?

A pause from the examination of who will top the respective party tickets. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is speculating on who might be a good choice to round out the tickets for the Republicans and the Democrats next year.

Sabato starts with what the VP choice should bring to the ticket:

• Disciplined, relatively scandal-free, and cause no major problems at selection time and throughout the campaign.
• Should be able to carry his or her home state. This is important especially if the choice is from a state that would go to the other party otherwise.
• They should complement those talents / experiences of the presidential nominee
• Help to (re)unite the party by being from another faction than the presidential candidate. Sorry, Joe Lieberman, don't wait for the phone to ring.
• If the presidential nominee is too far left or right, then the VP choice should be a centrist.
• A regional balance can be helpful, but it has not proved essential (Clinton/Gore).
• Symbolism - a woman, African-American, Hispanic/Latino, etc., could translate to voters and money
• Personal chemistry between the ticket-mates. Again, good, but not essential (Kennedy/Johnson).
• Finally, is he presidential?

Of course, as the article continues, the number 2 slot often goes to the person who comes in second in the delegate count. They are known quantities but with this field unlikely. Obama is a likely choice, if he can hold on to second. Same for Bill Richardson. Hillary would not be satisfied with number 2 and Edwards has already been there, done that. For the Republicans, Rudy's ego would disqualify him, McCain's age, and Romney brings nothing to the party except things people don't want.

Who Will be the Democratic Number 2?

• Sen. Evan Bayh of IN - Centrist Democrat who could put IN and OH in play simultaneously, good family and media image, broad executive and legislative experience, BUT cannot guarantee IN, not a strong public speaker, low-wattage personality.
• Gov. Phil Bredesen of TN - Executive experience at state and local levels, puts TN in play, moderate Southern/Border Democrat, personal wealth, BUT no foreign policy experience, bland personality.
• Sen. Bob Casey of PA - Moderate Democrat, giant-killer of Santorum in '06, guarantees PA.
• Gov. Jon Corzine of NJ - Executive and legislative experience, strong business credentials, personal wealth, BUT adds nothing electorally, perception that NJ=corruption and Corzine has had more than his personal share of it, another liberal Democrat from the Northeast.
• Gov. Mike Easley of NC - Executive experience, good match for northern liberal, puts NC in play, BUT dull persona, no foreign policy experience.
• Sen. Russ Feingold of WI - Broad legislative experience, strong netroots backing, highly intelligent, clean as a hound's tooth, BUT very liberal Democrat, twice divorced, something of a gadfly, unable to be controlled by nominee or, eventually, the White House.
• Sen. Amy Klobuchar of MN - Keeps MN in D column, woman, good counter-move to Pawlenty, some legislative and law enforcement experience, BUT MN already likely to be D, liberal record, minimal elected office experience, no foreign policy background.
• Sen. Mary Landrieu of LA - Centrist Southern Democrat, woman, may possibly be able to put LA in play, long legislative experience, could make Bush Katrina response a big issue, BUT by no means can she guarantee LA, much less any other electoral votes.
• Sen. Blanche Lincoln of AR - Moderate Democrat, Southern, woman, considerable legislative experience, puts AR in play, BUT AR not guaranteed, and not many electoral votes besides, bland persona.
• Gov. Joe Manchin of WV - Executive experience, moderate Democrat, puts WV in play, BUT WV is a tough sell nationally, no electoral votes outside WV guaranteed, no foreign policy experience.
• Gov. Janet Napolitano of AZ - Western executive, woman, puts AZ in play, BUT no national security experience, unknown nationally.
• Sen. Bill Nelson of FL - Only Democrat who can probably deliver FL and thus the White House, long legislative experience, moderate Southern D, BUT FL not guaranteed even with Nelson, not a strong persona.
• Sen. Mark Pryor of AR - Moderate Democrat, Southern, good political instincts, puts AR in play, BUT little foreign policy or executive experience, bland persona.
• Gov. Ed Rendell of PA - Strong executive experience at state and local levels, key state that GOP always targets, BUT relatively little national security background, PA ought to be Blue anyway.
• Gov. Bill Richardson of NM - He's got it all: The resume of the year, executive and legislative credentials, the only Governor with a credible foreign policy, Hispanic, Western, BUT are the personal womanizing rumors true? We don't know but Richardson has to deal with them so the nominee--if not Richardson--doesn't have to.
• Gov. Bill Ritter of CO - Western executive, puts CO in play, BUT relatively inexperienced, problems with labor unions, too.
• Sen. Ken Salazar of CO - Key Western state, probably puts CO in D column, Hispanic, BUT no foreign policy experience, relatively new, bland persona.
• Gov. Brian Schweitzer of MT - Executive experience, Western, ebullient personality, may put MT in play, BUT adds little electorally, no foreign policy experience.
• Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of KS - Executive experience, woman, Midwest, possibly could put KS in play, BUT unknown nationally, in deep Red territory that perhaps cannot be moved, no foreign policy experience.
• Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio - Executive and legislative experience, moderate Democrat used to running in rural areas, puts the key swing state of OH in play or more, BUT depends on achievements as Governor by '08, low voltage personality, little foreign policy experience.
• Ex-Gov. Mark Warner of VA - Successful executive and businessman, puts VA and WV in play, unusually energetic, personal wealth, BUT only one-term in office, no foreign policy experience.
• Sen. Jim Webb of VA - Moderate Democrat and former Reagan Republican, might put VA in play, giant-killer of George Allen in '06 that switched Senate to D column, netroots favorite, would pound away at Iraq, national security and military experience, BUT new to Senate and elective office, might be loose cannon, certainly impossible to control, doesn't guarantee VA.

Who Will Be the Republican Number 2?

• Gov. Haley Barbour of MS - Solid Southern conservative, sharp strategist, national reputation as ex-RNC Chair, understands the media, BUT adds nothing electorally, may be too conservative for country, has mission to complete in post-Katrina MS.
• Ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush - Strong record as Governor, critical swing state, 100 percent name ID, BUT his last name is tarnished for a generation.
• Sen. Susan Collins of ME - Moderate-liberal, woman with centrist appeal, could put ME into play, BUT social views would cause consternation among GOP conservatives.
• Sen. Elizabeth Dole of NC - Stellar "brand name" in GOP, solid conservative, woman, wouldn't be controversial, BUT adds little electorally, unexciting candidate.
• Sen. Lindsay Graham of SC - McCain favorite, some centrist appeal, long legislative experience, BUT adds nothing electorally, has irritated many conservatives yet totally pro-Iraq War, brings back Clinton impeachment issue.
• Sen. Chuck Hagel of NE - If Iraq is a total disaster, Hagel is a way for GOP nominee to separate himself from Bush, BUT adds nothing electorally, would split party, strong personality would overshadow presidential candidate.
• Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee of AR - Moderate conservative, long executive record, weight loss twist, BUT tax-cutting wing doesn't like him. Offers little or nothing electorally.
• Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of TX - Solid conservative except on abortion, woman, long political experience, appeal in South plus West, BUT adds little electorally. Only Texan who could be on the ticket in '08 (sorry, Rick Perry and John Cornyn), but is the Bush-whacked Lone Star State out of the running totally this time?
• Sen. Joe Lieberman of CT - Technically a Democrat-Fusion ticket, long Senate and foreign policy experience, hawk, could put CT in play, BUT his liberal views on economic and social issues would be anathema to GOP.
• Gov. Tim Pawlenty of MN - Conservative with a Midwest twist, executive experience, swing state, McCain favorite, BUT questionable whether he could carry MN after weak 2006 performance.
• Gov. Sonny Perdue of GA - Solid conservative, Southern base, executive experience, BUT perhaps too conservative for the country, adds nothing electorally.
• Gov. Jodi Rell of CT - Liberal on social issues, woman, puts her state in play, BUT so liberal a GOP convention walk-out might occur.
• Gov. Bob Riley of AL - Solid conservative, congressional and executive experience, BUT gains the GOP nothing electorally. No foreign policy experience.
• Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice - Black, female, impressive mind, 100 percent name ID, BUT Iraq, Iraq, Iraq: She owns it too. Bush III when almost no one wants that.
• Gov. Mark Sanford of SC - Solid Southern conservative, executive and legislative experience, 2000 McCain backer, BUT adds nothing electorally, mixed record in Palmetto State.
• Sen. Gordon Smith of OR - Centrist appeal, could make OR competitive, BUT too liberal for most in GOP, likely loss of his GOP Senate seat (up in 2008).
• Sen. Olympia Snowe of ME - Liberal who appeals to center, woman, long legislative experience, could put ME into play, BUT may be too liberal for most in GOP, possible convention walk-out.
• Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson of TN/Hollywood/DC - Solid conservative, McCain supporter--at least until he got the White House bug recently, Reaganesque, great on TV, BUT time may have passed, adds little electorally.
• Sen. David Vitter of LA - Endorsed Rudy, possible Southern VP for him, good media image, could crusade for Katrina relief--separating the ticket from Bush, BUT relatively unknown and inexperienced, adds nothing electorally, hasn't been vetted.
• Sen. George Voinovich of OH - Long executive and legislative experience, could be the only way for GOP to save the key swing state of Ohio, BUT nationally unknown, somewhat quirky in Senate.

Mayor Mike Makes Some Noise

Reports are circulating that New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg is thinking about running as an independent for President of the United States. Someone needs to sit him down to contact John Lindsay from the grave (or for that matter, his predecessor, Rudy Giuliani).

Could he do it? One of the reasons that Governor Tom Vilsack withdrew from the presidential race (and endorsed Hillary Clinton) was that he didn't have enough money to sustain his candidacy. Mayor Mike? Not a problem, as Bloomberg currently sits at No. 142 on the Forbes list of the worlds richest people and is reportedly worth at least $5.5 billion. He is also not afraid to spend his money. In his recent reelection bid for Mayor, he spent $85 million against an opponent that was not likely to win anyway.

Who would he appeal to? Bloomberg used to be a Democrat, turning Republican late in life (perhaps it was all that money). So he could draw support from both parties to an independent candidacy.

What about those other people? The two main parties have the process locked up and third party candidacies very rarely get anywhere (see: Ralph Nader, Ross Perot). Bloomberg is publicly silent on the issue, but the idea is coming out from Bloomberg's media empire that he is considering it.

Unity08 was founded to help the "center" gain a voice and is planning to hold a "unity" primary to nominate a bipartisan ticket for the White House. The group was founded by several heavy hitters, including Hamilton Jordan, who served as President Jimmy Carter's Chief of Staff.

The question remains, one that Bloomberg himself is asking, can a "5-foot-7, divorced billionaire Jew running as an independent from New York possibly have a chance?"

For 2008, as we have already seen . . . All bets are off.

But I Brought a Note from My Campaign Manager

There is a new report out that recounts the votes missed by current members of Congress. Pundits have taken note of the presidential contenders who have missed votes. Please disregard the person at the top of the list, Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), he's been a little busy not dying.

Herewith is the list of senators who have missed votes and are also seeking their party's nomination for president.

• Sam Brownback (R-KS) - 22 votes missed (42.3%)
• Joseph Biden (D-DE) - 12 votes missed (23.1%)
• Chuck Hagel (R-NE) - 9 votes missed (17.3%)
• Christopher Dodd (D-CT) - 8 votes missed (15.4%)
• John McCain (R-AZ) - 5 votes missed (9.6%)
• Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 2 votes missed (3.8%)
• Barack Obama (D-IL) - 0 votes missed!

Vilsack Gets Sacked

Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack has withdrawn from the 2008 Presidential Race, a mere 15 weeks after getting into it. Vilsack announced the day after the 2006 midterm elections and brought the best "emotional" story to the race. However, he was always viewed as a underdog, despite an impressive resume and most importantly, executive experience. As most pundits will tell you there is a reason the past four of five presidents have been governors.

Vilsack's withdrawal could be good for Bill Richardson of New Mexico, one of the few other governors in the race and also an impressive resume. I believe Richardson will do well if he can survive the front runner shuffle being conducted by the Senator from Illinois and the Senator from New York.

Stay tuned. There's still a long way to go and lots more time for people to stumble.

President John McCain?

The current issue of Washingtonian Magazine (February 2007) has a fictional article in it on how John McCain becomes president in 2008. It was a fascinating read with some interesting factual stingers, most notably how Joe Biden can't seem to keep his foot out of his mouth (articulate, indeed!).

The article describes how the Democrats go into their convention deadlocked with John Edwards, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton all with large numbers of delegates but not enough to capture the nomination. Clinton finally releases her delegates to Edwards after securing a promise that he will pick Obama as his running mate. Clinton returns to the Senate and a place in history.

McCain has wrested the nomination away from Rudy Giuliani and asked Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty to run as his vice president. The general election race is on. On October 31, a terrorist attack strikes in St. Louis and it reminds the nation that Edwards and Obama may not be ready. McCain wins the election a week later.

The article uses actual statements from McCain and weaves an impressive story and goes to show how entertaining the next two years are going to be. But I still think that McCain will not be the Republican nominee, regardless of what happens.

Only 648 Days Until the Election!

The title of this blog comes from the cover of Time Magazine's February 5, 2007 issue. The issue is full of stories about the extraordinary presidential race already underway. It reminds us this is the first election since 1928 that no incumbent President or Vice President is on a primary ballot. It points out that we might conceivably elect the first woman, the first African American, the first Latino, or the first Mormon.

The magazine also announces the creation of the Time Election Index, which will be periodically updated as the candidates popularity ebb and flow over the election season. The index plots a candidates support among voters against how much they presume to know about the candidate. The index currently puts the front runners as Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats.

Speaking of Clinton, she campaigned in Iowa this weekend and performed admirably. It marks the first time a Clinton has campaigned in the Midwest battleground in some time. Bill Clinton wrote off Iowa in 1992 and did not campaign there as an incumbent in 1996.

The issue also points out the 8 Keys to the Campaign:

• How the Iraq War Scrambles Party Lines - where else do Chuck Hagel and Joe Biden agree?
• Raising Cash - Clinton's announcement to forgo public financing puts the bar out of sight of most, meaning that candidates will need to raise about $2 million a week to remain competitive through the campaign.
• The Religion Question - Are we ready for a Mormon? Do we need another conservative Christian? What of the Republicans who don't espouse the typical religious beliefs of the party? Which Democrat will stop ducking the gay marriage question?
• Read All About It! - At least half of the candidates out there have best sellers.
• What About That Guy? - Both Al Gore and Newt Gingrich are waiting in the wings to see what happens. Newt reminds us all that John Kennedy waited until January 1960 before announcing his candidacy for president.
• The men behind the curtains - Political talent is being snapped up left and right. Will there be anyone left? Are the operatives hooking their carts to the right horse?
• The Blogosphere - There are a lot of us out there and many of the candidates do their own blogging. Howard Dean showed us the power of the Internet and it will only become more powerful in the next two years.
• Wait, don't tell me. That's, um, you know, that Senator . . . - Three House members, a bunch of Senators, several Governors. Can't tell the players without a scorecard. Get yer programs here!

It's going to be a long season / campaign / year. Hold on tight!

January - A Busy Month!

It's only January 22, and we have had a flurry of candidates getting into the race. Storming into the race and out in front are the two Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Over the weekend, Senator Sam Brownback announced his candidacy. Governor Bill Richardson takes aim at the Hispanic vote by announcing the formation of his exploratory committee.

A news report tonight on the Jim Lehrer News Hour contained a quote that candidates will need to raise nearly $2 million a week over the next year to stay viable. It is the first time since 1928 there is no sitting president or vice president in the field, hence the plethora of candidates.

It is still too soon to tell who the nominee will be and whether it will even be one of the current candidates or a dark horse not yet being discussed.

Democrats in:

• Joe Biden (Sen.-DE) - announced he is running but no formal candidacy announcement yet.
• Hillary Rodham Clinton (Sen.-NY) - announced her candidacy on the Internet, realizing the power of that medium. But can she win?
• Christopher Dodd (Sen.-CT) - announced candidate with little appeal outside of his native Connecticut. Could be a good veep for a candidate outside the Northeast, like . . .
• John Edwards (former Sen.-NC) - the former VP candidate in 2004 has remade himself as a populist and as the "Anti-Hillary." It could work to his advantage.
• Mike Gravel (former Sen.-VA) - who? Gravel represented Alaska in the House and was front and center during the Watergate issues. Since relocating to Virginia, he is largely unnoticed in the field.
• Dennis Kucinich (Rep.-OH) - A candidate in 2004, he believes the Democrats are not advancing the anti-Iraq agenda enough. Not likely to be a contender.
• Barack Obama (Sen.-IL) - filed his paperwork for his committee this month and will announce in February. Can he stop the Hillary onslaught?
• Bill Richardson (Gov.-NM) - a candidate I firmly believe can win the presidency.
• Tom Vilsack (former Gov.-IA) - restricted by term limits, he announced his candidacy the day after Election Day 2006. Could be a VP candidate.

Republicans in:

• Sam Brownback (Sen.-KS) - the choice of conservative candidates, he could keep the Republicans to the right.
• Jim Gilmore (former Gov.-VA) - no, really. Jim Gilmore? for President?
• Rudy Giuliani (former Mayor-NYC) - the 9/11 icon could make the Republicans worry about the message he brings to the party.
• Duncan Hunter (Rep.-CA) - a House Member with one issue to run on, the military.
• John McCain (Sen.-AZ) - the front runner, if he runs.
• Mitt Romney (former Gov.-MA) - sometimes conservative, sometimes liberal, Mitt is an enigma, and that's dangerous.
• Tom Tancredo (Rep.-CO) - another House member with one issue, but this one is immigration. He won't go quietly.
• Tommy Thompson (former Gov.-WI) - also a former member of the Bush Cabinet, he may show up on VP short lists, but that's about all.

Representative Tancredo slips in under the radar

Representative Tom Tancredo (R-CO) has filed papers to form a presidential exploratory committee. It was not an unexpected move, but Tancredo is another longshot for the nomination. He joins another House member, Duncan Hunter (R-CA) in the race for the Republican nomination.

As I said when Hunter got in the race, the last House member to go to the Presidency was James Garfield in 1880. With the star power on the Republican side (Giuliani, McCain), Hunter and Tancredo can only hope to get their issues out there and keep the Republicans on message.

Iowa and New Hampshire are but a year away!

Senator Dodd for President

Christopher Dodd, the senior Senator from Connecticut has decided to run for president. Okay, but why is the next question. He flirted with the idea in 2004 and now thinks the time has come for him to "get out of the bleachers and play on the floor." Too bad that his pickup game is going to be a little short from the other players on the floor.

But I wish him luck. Dodd is a good Northeast liberal. And we all know how successful they are in winning the presidency. What does he have going for him? A prominent father who was also a Senator from Connecticut. Remind you of anyone else?

Good luck, Chris. I like you but I don't see you making it past Super Tuesday.

The 110th Congress Convenes

History was made today, when the 110th Congress of the United States convened. Members of the House of Representatives elected Nancy Pelosi of California to serve as Speaker of the House. She becomes the first woman ever to hold that position.

The leadership of the House was also announced on the floor:

• Majority Leader - Steny Hoyer (MD)
• Majority Whip - James Clyburn (SC)
• Minority Leader - John Boehner (OH)
• Minority Whip - Roy Blunt (MO)

Over on the Senate side, the new Senators were sworn in by Vice President Cheney.

A new day dawned in American politics as the Democrats took control of the entire Congress for the first time in 12 years. Let's hope they can pull it off, or it is likely to be a short majority.

Mitt Romney Joins the Field

After the nation bade farewell to the 38th President, Gerald Ford, outgoing Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney announced the formation of an exploratory committee in preparation for a run for the Republican nomination for President in 2008.

This has been expected for some time and he joins a field still looking for a front runner. John McCain is still considered the front runner, but, while exploring a run, I continue to maintain that he will ultimately decide not to run.

Romney's religion may be a hurdle for him and he is not well liked by the conservative wing of the party. However, he has proved a good administrator in Massachusetts. Romney also has a good political pedigree. His father was George Romney, Republican Governor of Illinois and unsuccessful presidential candidate in 1968. Romney joins several others in the Republican party: who have already declared their candidacies or have formed exploratory committees:

• Senator Sam Brownback (KS)
• Rudy Giuliani
• Congressman Duncan Hunter (CA)
• Senator John McCain (AZ)
• Secretary Tommy Thompson