The House of Representatives

A great article in the Washington Post today, which included the following line: "Republican operatives closely following the battle for the House and Senate said that they are virtually ready to concede nearly a third of the 15 seats the Democrats need to recapture control of the House, and that they will spend the next five weeks trying to shelter other vulnerable incumbents from the fallout of the Foley scandal in hopes of salvaging a slender majority." You have got to love a party in crisis, especially when it is the Republicans.

Let's start with a brief history lesson. The House of Representatives (or the Lower House) is made up of 435 members, distributed among the 50 states based on population. As a result, California, Texas, and New York have the largest Congressional delegations, while smaller or sparsely populated states (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming) have the minimum, one at-large delegate. House members are elected to two-year terms and the entire House is up for election at the same time (unlike the Senate, which is elected in thirds). So, technically, the entire House could change every two years - but never happened and never will. House seats are generally safe and rarely competitive and many times not contested. It is not unusual for House members to serve for more than 20 years. House districts are also usually drawn to favorite a particular candidate or party. This is known as "Gerrymandering" and is named for a Massachusetts Governor (and signer of the Declaration of Independence) Elbridge Gerry.

The current composition of the House is 230 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent (Socialist Bernie Sanders (VT), who is leaving the House to run for the Senate this year), and three vacancies: Bob Menendez (D-NJ), who was appointed to fill Jon Corzine's Senate seat when Corzine was elected Governor; Tom Delay (R-TX), who resigned over ethics violations, and most recently, Mark Foley (R-FL), who abruptly resigned last week over allegations of salacious emails with a Congressional page.

Many projections show 190 seats safe for the Democrats with 17 leaning Democrat and 189 seats safe for the Republicans and 21 leaning Republican. For all of you that like math, how many seats does that leave? That's right! 18 seats are considered toss ups. To be in the majority, a party needs (more math) 218 seats. Let's take a look at the chances of the Democrats pulling this off shall we? Keys to the win? Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, and Ohio. These states by far, pose the best chances for Democrats to unseat Republican incumbents.

In Pennsylvania, four districts are being targeted, CD6, CD7, CD8, and CD10. All have Republican incumbents in a state that is most certainly trending Democrat. Many pundits believe that only Jim Gerlach in CD6 will fall to Lois Murphy (which I agree with), but I believe that Curt Weldon in CD7 will lose to Joe Sestak. I don't think that Mike Fitzpatrick will lose in CD8, but Don Sherwood may not be able to stop the wave of democratic victories that will sweep across the state in November and he will lose to Christopher Carney.

Connecticut has five congressional districts. Three of the seats are held by Republicans and two by Democrats. After Election Day, look for only one to be left standing. In CD2, which covers the entire eastern part of the state, Robert Simmons is having trouble fighting off Joseph Courtney. CD5 is looking better and better for incumbent Nancy Johnson and she may be the aforementioned lone Republican in the delegation. In CD4, Christopher Shays is almost certain to go down to defeat to Diane Farrell. Those moderate Republicans are a dying breed, evidently (See Rhode Island and Senator Chafee).

In Florida, there are four districts worth watching. Three involve open seats and one is ver competitive. In CD9, Gus Bilirakis is running to succeed his father and name recognition will probably be enough. CD13 is Katherine Harris's seat (yes, that Katherine Harris), who foolishly decided to run for the Senate, but that will likely stay in Republican hands. The aforementioned Mark Foley's actions (CD16) has likely cleared the way for a victory by Democrat Tim Mahoney. Finally, Clay Shaw may be forced into retirement as Ron Klein should send Shaw down to defeat.

Finally, Ohio. A state where Republicans have been running for cover. Governor Bob Taft is "retiring" under a cloud of scandal, Congressman Robert Ney resigned earlier this year, when he got caught up in the Abramoff scandal. Unfortunately, given all that, it may be hard for the Democrats to pick up more than one seat. The ones to watch are CD1, where Steve Chabot is running a lackluster reelection campaign, CD6, where Ted Strickland is leaving the House to run for Governor, but the seat will likely stay in democratic control. CD13 is also an open seat, where Sherrod Brown is taking on Mike DeWine for the Senate seat, but Betty Sutton should be able to keep Republican Craig Foltin at bay. The two true toss ups in Ohio are in CD 15 and 18. CD15 is incumbent Deborah Pryce against Mary Jo Kilroy. Kilroy was here, and let's hope she will be in the House come January. CD18 is Robert Ney's seat and Democrat Zack Space should be able to wrest this one away for his party.

I will update on other important House races soon as well as comment on the Governor's races around the country. But for now, pin me to the wall and I will scream the following projection:

• Democrats 220 - Republicans 215