The Democratic Wave

In the wake of the Foley page scandal, the Washington Post reported today that the Republicans are bracing for a loss of between 7 and 30 seats in the House in the upcoming election. The Republicans are running for cover, making it hard for them to be campaigning in their home districts. The Democrats need to stay on message and not appear to be taking too much advantage of the Republicans problems. A poll that appeared in the Post alongside this article shows a strong shift of support to Democratic candidates.

In Virginia, Republican incumbent George Allen and his Democratic challenger, Jim Webb, faced off in their final debate last night in Richmond. What was supposed to be an easy victory for Allen, starting him down the path toward a presidential run in 2008, now looks to be a race that is being watched all over the country. Democratic control of the Senate may well rest in the Old Dominion.

Current predictions today (hopefully better than my baseball predictions I made on my other blog):

• Senate - 52 Democrats (with two independents, Lieberman and Sanders) and 48 Democrats. The races to watch in the home stretch:
• Missouri, where Claire McCaskill is likely to edge out Republican Incumbent Jim Talent
• freakin' New Jersey, where Bob Menendez is barely ahead of challenger Tom Kean, Jr.
• Ohio, where incumbent Mike DeWine is trailing Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown
• Tennessee, where I have long said that Harold Ford will win the seat being vacated by Bill Frist
• Virginia, as mentioned, the race that everybody is watching.
• The House - 235 Democrats, 200 Republicans. Nancy Pelosi will likely get the Speaker's gavel from Dennis Hastert.

A note here. Calls have been getting louder for Hastert to resign. I don't see that happening. My take? I think Hastert knows the House is lost and he is not going to be Speaker in the 110th Congress anyway, so he will likely be able to fade back into the woodwork of the Republican minority.

Coming soon, a look at the Governor's races, where Democrats are also poised to capture (or hold) the majority of the state houses.