About three weeks from now, Democratic voters will convene for the Iowa Caucuses. On the Democratic side, it has come down to a horse race between Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. I still believe that when it comes right down to it, people will go into the polling place and say to themselves, "I can't bring myself to vote for a woman, or a black man." This is what John Edwards is counting on. He is not running for second place a second time.
However this all shakes out, the latest
polls are showing that any of those three Democrats will beat the Republican nominee (in the case of Mike Huckabee, by double digits).
In the interests of full disclosure, there are other candidates running for the Democratic nomination. No, really there are.
The rest of the field:
- Senator Joe Biden (DE) - again, as I have said before, he's really running for Secretary of State.
- Senator Chris Dodd (CT) - not a chance, Chris, go back to the Senate.
- Former Senator Mike Gravel (AK/VA) - every time I say his name, Mrs. BA goes, "Who?"
- Representative Dennis Kucinich (OH) - he's got the UFO lovers vote sewn up
- Governor Bill Richardson (NM) - I really like him, but he is running for the vice presidency.
So how do we think Iowa will shake out? Here's the predicted order of finish for the first three contests (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina):
- Barack Obama
- Hillary Clinton
- John Edwards
The lesser candidates will likely not survive after this point. Further, there is a significant possibility that the Democrats will see a brokered convention because they apportion their delegates differently than the Republicans. It is not winner take all, and will the three front runners all close in poll numbers the number of delegates for each contest could get split three ways.
Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
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