House of Representatives Update

"No, I'm sorry Ms. Bono-Mack, you may not vote twice, just because you married another House member." Yes, Mary Bono (R-CA), the widow of our dear friend, Sonny, married fellow Representative Connie Mack (R-FL) earlier this month. While it seems that the two of them are safe in their seats in the House, what does the rest of the table look like?

Can the Democrats increase their margins? Can the Republicans claw their way back from the pit? The thing about House races is that as soon as you get elected, you have to start campaigning again, especially if you are in a district that is competitive. Granted with Gerrymandering, there are fewer of those around, but there are some seats that will be newsworthy in 2008.

Larry Sabato, over there at the Crystal Ball again, has come out with his Congressional outlook. He starts off by saying,

Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often-years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other.

Since 1970 we have had five of those years:

[We could have a quiz and make you name them . . . nah, here they are]

• 1974 - a direct result of Watergate, the Democrats netted 48 House seats (along with 75 freshmen, who shook up the House)
• 1980 - The Republican landslide with Ronald Reagan's initial election, the GOP added 33 House seats. It didn't give them the majority, but it came damn close.
• 1982 - And the pendulum swings back. During a recession, Democrats won back 26 of the 33 seats they had lost two years earlier.
• 1994 - The Contract with America and our man Newt. Forty years of Democratic control of the House came to an end, as the GOP added 52 seats
• 2006 - After 12 years, Democrats screamed back gaining 30 House seats

There is more good news for the Democrats in this election cycle [from Sabato]:

1. For the first time in at least two decades, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has out-raised the National Republican Congressional Committee, and by the sizeable margin of $56.6 million to $40.7 million (with cash on hand: $29.2 million D to $2.5 million R).
2. Freshmen Democrats, many of them elected from normally GOP constituencies in 2006 and thus potentially vulnerable [see my comments above], have been doing particularly well in fundraising.
3. Out of 23 open seats for 2008, 17 are held by Republicans. Open seats give the opposition party the best chance for a takeover in many instances. You will note below that seven of these are rated as toss-ups.

Here's how Sabato is calling the races in the 23 districts where the incumbent is retiring:

• Alabama 2 - (Terry Everett, R) - Safe R
• California 52 (Duncan Hunter, R) - Safe R
• Colorado 6 (Tom Tancredo, R) - Safe R
• Louisiana 4 (Jim McCrery III, R) - Safe R
• Mississippi 3 (Chip Pickering, Jr., R) - Safe R
• Ohio 7 (Dave Hobson, R) - Safe R
• Illinois 18 (Ray LaHood, R) - Likely R
• New Jersey 3 (Jim Saxton, R) - Likely R
• New Mexico 2 (Steve Pearce, R) - Likely R
• Wyoming AL (Barbara Cubin, R) - Likely R
• Illinois 14 (Dennis Hastert, R) - Leans R
• New Jersey 7 (Mike Ferguson, R) - Toss-up
• Arizona 1 (Rick Renzi, R) - Toss-up
• Illinois 11 (Jerry Weller, R) - Toss-up
• Minnesota 3 (Jim Ramstad, R) - Toss-up
• New Mexico 1 (Heather Wilson, R) - Toss-up
• Ohio 15 (Deborah Pryce, R) - Toss-up
• Ohio 16 (Ralph Regula, R) - Toss-up
• Indiana 7 (Julia Carson, D) - Likely D
• Colorado 2 (Mark Udall, D) - Safe D
• Maine 1 (Tom Allen, D) - Safe D
• New Mexico 3 (Tom Udall, D) - Safe D
• New York 21 (Michael McNulty, D) - Safe D

There are many bridges to cross between now and election day. A lot will also hinge on who is the nominee of each party for president and how big the coattails are for those down the food chain. Stay tuned.