House of Representatives Update

"No, I'm sorry Ms. Bono-Mack, you may not vote twice, just because you married another House member." Yes, Mary Bono (R-CA), the widow of our dear friend, Sonny, married fellow Representative Connie Mack (R-FL) earlier this month. While it seems that the two of them are safe in their seats in the House, what does the rest of the table look like?

Can the Democrats increase their margins? Can the Republicans claw their way back from the pit? The thing about House races is that as soon as you get elected, you have to start campaigning again, especially if you are in a district that is competitive. Granted with Gerrymandering, there are fewer of those around, but there are some seats that will be newsworthy in 2008.

Larry Sabato, over there at the Crystal Ball again, has come out with his Congressional outlook. He starts off by saying,

Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often-years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other.

Since 1970 we have had five of those years:

[We could have a quiz and make you name them . . . nah, here they are]

• 1974 - a direct result of Watergate, the Democrats netted 48 House seats (along with 75 freshmen, who shook up the House)
• 1980 - The Republican landslide with Ronald Reagan's initial election, the GOP added 33 House seats. It didn't give them the majority, but it came damn close.
• 1982 - And the pendulum swings back. During a recession, Democrats won back 26 of the 33 seats they had lost two years earlier.
• 1994 - The Contract with America and our man Newt. Forty years of Democratic control of the House came to an end, as the GOP added 52 seats
• 2006 - After 12 years, Democrats screamed back gaining 30 House seats

There is more good news for the Democrats in this election cycle [from Sabato]:

1. For the first time in at least two decades, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has out-raised the National Republican Congressional Committee, and by the sizeable margin of $56.6 million to $40.7 million (with cash on hand: $29.2 million D to $2.5 million R).
2. Freshmen Democrats, many of them elected from normally GOP constituencies in 2006 and thus potentially vulnerable [see my comments above], have been doing particularly well in fundraising.
3. Out of 23 open seats for 2008, 17 are held by Republicans. Open seats give the opposition party the best chance for a takeover in many instances. You will note below that seven of these are rated as toss-ups.

Here's how Sabato is calling the races in the 23 districts where the incumbent is retiring:

• Alabama 2 - (Terry Everett, R) - Safe R
• California 52 (Duncan Hunter, R) - Safe R
• Colorado 6 (Tom Tancredo, R) - Safe R
• Louisiana 4 (Jim McCrery III, R) - Safe R
• Mississippi 3 (Chip Pickering, Jr., R) - Safe R
• Ohio 7 (Dave Hobson, R) - Safe R
• Illinois 18 (Ray LaHood, R) - Likely R
• New Jersey 3 (Jim Saxton, R) - Likely R
• New Mexico 2 (Steve Pearce, R) - Likely R
• Wyoming AL (Barbara Cubin, R) - Likely R
• Illinois 14 (Dennis Hastert, R) - Leans R
• New Jersey 7 (Mike Ferguson, R) - Toss-up
• Arizona 1 (Rick Renzi, R) - Toss-up
• Illinois 11 (Jerry Weller, R) - Toss-up
• Minnesota 3 (Jim Ramstad, R) - Toss-up
• New Mexico 1 (Heather Wilson, R) - Toss-up
• Ohio 15 (Deborah Pryce, R) - Toss-up
• Ohio 16 (Ralph Regula, R) - Toss-up
• Indiana 7 (Julia Carson, D) - Likely D
• Colorado 2 (Mark Udall, D) - Safe D
• Maine 1 (Tom Allen, D) - Safe D
• New Mexico 3 (Tom Udall, D) - Safe D
• New York 21 (Michael McNulty, D) - Safe D

There are many bridges to cross between now and election day. A lot will also hinge on who is the nominee of each party for president and how big the coattails are for those down the food chain. Stay tuned.

Whither the Senate?

Currently the Democrats hold a one vote majority in the Senate. This could very well change come next November. The Republicans are defending twice the number of seats as the Democrats and several of the seats are open because the incumbent is leaving.

Larry Sabato, writer of Sabato's Crystal ball says on his blog,

Look at recent history. The Senate has changed party control six times: in 1980 (D to R), 1986 (R to D), 1994 (D to R), 2001 (R to D), 2002 (D to R), and 2006 (R to D). This is no longer a rare event. And the Democrats now control the Senate by the slimmest of margins, 51 to 49. Surely, then, Republicans have a real chance to recapture Congress' upper chamber in 2008.

Surely not. While strange things happen in politics, and the election is almost a year away, it would be truly extraordinary if the GOP seized the Senate. In fact, Democrats have an excellent chance to expand their margin of control, perhaps significantly. Let's go to the states to see how.

Sabato believes that of the thirty-five Senate races in question, twenty-five of them are locks for the party that holds the seat (11 D, 14 R):

• Alabama - Jeff Sessions (R)
• Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D)
• Delaware - Joe Biden (D) (we're guessing that presidential thing won't work out so well)
• Georgia - Saxby Chambliss (R) (and this upsets me, I would like nothing more than for him to lose badly)
• Idaho - the departure of Larry Craig (R) is leading to the running of the GOP Lt. Gov. of Idaho, Jim Risch, who will almost certainly be the next Senator (that's how things go there in Idaho)
• Illinois - Dick Durbin (D)
• Iowa - Tom Harkin (D)
• Kansas - Pat Roberts (R)
• Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) - there was a rumor that he was going to get a good challenge, but that has vanished.
• Nebraska - Chuck Hagel is leaving the Senate and the Republican former Governor Mike Johanns should win.
• Massachusetts - John Kerry (D) - oh, yeah, him.
• Michigan - Carl Levin (D)
• Mississippi - Thad Cochran (R)
• Montana - Max Baucus (D)
• New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (D) - and very, very old in his second Senate career.
• North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole
• Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe (R)
• Rhode Island - Jack Reed (D)
• South Carolina - Lindsay Graham (R)
• South Dakota - Tim Johnson (D)
• Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (R)
• Texas - John Cornyn (R)
• West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (D)
• Wyoming - Mike Enzi (R)
• Wyoming - John Barasso (R) - he was appointed to fill out the late Craig Thomas's term and should win on his own.

So what of the other ten elections?

• Alaska - Ted Stevens (R) - Oh, that this race should be competitive. Stevens may face a primary challenge as well as a stiff opponent in the general election.
• Colorado - Open seat - Wayne Allard (R) pledged to leave after two terms and is doing exactly that. The new "purple" state may very well give the Democrats a pick-up in 2008.
• Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (D) has been targeted for poor performance post-Katrina, so she is in the bullseye of the Senate races. Given the swing to Republicans in the state (see Bobby Jindal's election as governor and the fleeing of the state of the democratic voting bloc), this race is a toss-up and may very well fall into the "red."
• Maine - Susan Collins (R) is a dying breed in the Senate, a moderate Republican. She is facing off against Maine's lone Congressman and could get knocked off. Still rated as a toss-up.
• Minnesota - Norm Coleman (R) - is Al Franken enough to put Paul Wellstone's seat back in the Democratic column? Remember, this is the state that elected Jesse Ventura governor.
• Mississippi - Trent Lott (R) is taking his marbles and going home. While the Republican Governor of the state, Haley Barbour, has not yet said when the special election will be held, he will have appointed someone to sit in the Senate to gain the stink of incumbency. For that, this election is leaning Republican.
• New Hampshire - John Sununu (R) is in big trouble in the Granite state, where Republicans are dropping like flies. He is running against popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen and she will likely win for a Democratic pickup.
• New Mexico - Open seat - Pete Domenici (St. Pete, as he is known in NM) is retiring due to illness. This seat will likely stay Republican unless Governor Bill Richardson can be persuaded to run when (note when, not if) his presidential campaign stalls.
• Oregon - Gordon Smith (R) normally gets little opposition here. Since he is getting some now, the race is being noticed, but for the time being, he's safe.
• Virginia - John Warner (R) is retiring. It is very likely that people will notice little difference as another Warner will likely slip into the seat. Mark Warner, Virginia's popular ex-Governor has announced and will likely face his predecessor in the Virginia state house, Jim Gilmore.

Gut check early prediction for the next Senate:
58 Democrats, 42 Republicans (note, that is still two shy of the presidential override margin, but a Democratic president should come along with it).

The Ioway to the White House (Democrats)

About three weeks from now, Democratic voters will convene for the Iowa Caucuses. On the Democratic side, it has come down to a horse race between Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. I still believe that when it comes right down to it, people will go into the polling place and say to themselves, "I can't bring myself to vote for a woman, or a black man." This is what John Edwards is counting on. He is not running for second place a second time.

However this all shakes out, the latest polls are showing that any of those three Democrats will beat the Republican nominee (in the case of Mike Huckabee, by double digits).

In the interests of full disclosure, there are other candidates running for the Democratic nomination. No, really there are.

The rest of the field:

• Senator Joe Biden (DE) - again, as I have said before, he's really running for Secretary of State.
• Senator Chris Dodd (CT) - not a chance, Chris, go back to the Senate.
• Former Senator Mike Gravel (AK/VA) - every time I say his name, Mrs. BA goes, "Who?"
• Representative Dennis Kucinich (OH) - he's got the UFO lovers vote sewn up
• Governor Bill Richardson (NM) - I really like him, but he is running for the vice presidency.

So how do we think Iowa will shake out? Here's the predicted order of finish for the first three contests (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina):

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Edwards

The lesser candidates will likely not survive after this point. Further, there is a significant possibility that the Democrats will see a brokered convention because they apportion their delegates differently than the Republicans. It is not winner take all, and will the three front runners all close in poll numbers the number of delegates for each contest could get split three ways.

Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

I Heart Huckabee?

I would like to say I thought this all the time, but it would conflict with my other belief that America does not elect a president with a vowel at the end of his name. With those disclaimers, what is up with Mike Huckabee? The new man from Hope, Arkansas, albeit from the other side of the aisle, is positioning himself to win Iowa and possibly South Carolina.

With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, here are my predictions for what the Republican field might look like going into Tsunami Tuesday.

Here are the Republican candidates, in case you have been living in a vacuum or under a rock:

• Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York
• Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas
• Duncan Hunter, Congressman from California
• John McCain, Senator from Arizona
• Ron Paul, Representative from Texas
• Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
• Tom Tancredo, Congressman from Colorado
• Fred Thompson, Actor, former Senator from Tennessee

The Washington Post has started a series on the candidates, which has been very good. It focuses on the "front-runners" and for the Republicans, that means, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and Thompson. While Congressmen Paul, Tancredo, and Hunter are certainly interesting in their own right, they will not be the nominee of their party. So, for our purposes here, they are not a factor.

Iowa: The Republicans are starving for someone that thinks like they do. Despite Mitt Romney's millions of dollars spent in the Hawkeye State, I don't think it's going to happen for him. Ditto for Rudy. Iowans will go for the guy who sounds like them.

Projected Finish:

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Giuliani
4. Thompson
5. McCain

New Hampshire: Romney's last stand. If he can't win here, next to his putative home of Massachusetts, stick a fork in him, he's done. McCain needs the big win, too, but again, as I have said all along, I never thought he would make it this far.

Projected Finish:

1. Romney
2. Giuliani
3. Huckabee
4. Thompson
5. McCain

South Carolina: The third prize in the front-loaded delegate sweepstakes. McCain has spent a lot of time here and, unfortunately it is not paying off for him. He will probably make it to this primary and they quietly walk away.

Projected Finish:

1. Huckabee
2. Giuliani
3. Romney
4. McCain
5. Thompson

Once these three contests are over, I think that both McCain and Thompson will withdraw. Giuliani still leads in most national polls on the race for the nomination, but Huckabee is closing the ground fast. The big question will be is where do the supporters of McCain and Thompson go when those tents come down? That may be the best news for Mitt Romney. In a three-person race, he will come off as the most "presidential" (again, the vowel thing) and should get a good bump going into "Super-Duper Tuesday."

I still maintain that at least one party or the other may go into their convention without one individual holding enough delegates to get the nomination on the first ballot. God, I would love that. I would take time off to sit in front of C-Span to watch.

Coming next, why can't John Edwards pass Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? Come back soon. I'll be here.

Answers to the second quiz

Here are the answers to the second quiz, which appeared last Sunday.

1. Which member appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a professional athlete?
• Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) in the March 1, 1965 issue. (He was a professional baseball player.)
  
2. How many current governors served in Congress?
• 10 of 50 (Bob Riley - Alabama, Butch Otter - Idaho, Rod Blagojevich - Illinois, Ernie Fletcher - Kentucky, John Baldacci - Maine, Jim Gibbons - Nevada, Jon Corzine - New Jersey, Bill Richardson - New Mexico, Ted Strickland - Ohio, Mark Sanford, South Carolina)
  
3. How many Senators served in the House?
• 49 of 100
  
4. How many Senators are children of Senators?
• Five - Evan Bayh (D-IN), Robert Bennett (R-UT), Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Mark Pryor (D-AR).
  
5. How many presidents has Representative John Dingell (D-Mich.) served under since he was sworn in?
• Ten, Dingell took office in December 1955.
  
6. Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore failed to win 30 percent of the vote in four states in 2000. Name them.
• Alaska (28%), Idaho (28%), Utah (26%), Wyoming (28%)
  
7. Which three states switched their presidential vote from 2000 to 2004?
• Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico