The Democratic Race in Eight Minutes

following up on the "Democratic Race in Seven Minutes." Boy what a difference a minute makes.

The Democratic Race in Seven Minutes

and you know it hasn't been heaven . . .

What About Mike Gravel?

So I guess I am not going to have a chance to vote for Mike Gravel in the MD Primary . . . there is no word from Mad Mike. His whereabouts are unknown. Saturday, the Democrats will complete the other part of the South Carolina Primary. At this moment, the remaining candidates are debating in Myrtle Beach.

I was getting a haircut today and on my left was an older white woman getting her hair cut by an African-American woman, probably in her late 20s-early 30s. I happened to overhear when they started talking politics. I was intrigued to hear that the older white woman was more inclined to vote for Hillary after she showed some emotion before the NH primary. The black woman was going to vote for her until that point. It was a little microcosm of the electorate that I found interesting.

I am still disappointed by John Edwards. If he can't win in South Carolina, there may be no future for him or a role at the convention for that matter. I also can't see him taking the number 2 spot again.

Here is how the delegate count looks for the Democrats among the four remaining candidates.

Needed to nominate: 2025
Total delegate votes: 4049

• Hillary Clinton - 236
• Barack Obama - 136
• John Edwards - 50
• Dennis Kucinich - 1
  

Mac is Back, The Hunt[er] is Over

Another weekend, another two Republican contests in the books. The Nevada Caucuses and the GOP South Carolina primary were this past Saturday. John McCain is continuing his "Lazarus-like" comeback, capturing a primary that eluded him eight years ago. The two events also knocked Duncan Hunter from the presidential sweepstakes (but what about the one delegate he won?).

I still can't believe that McCain can win. I have heard a lot of talk about getting him to commit to serving only one term. Like he would go on the record and aver that. We will see how things go in Florida this weekend and then on Tsunami Tuesday. Of course, Florida is shaping up as the last stand of Rudy Giuliani. He has had the state to himself for some time and if he doesn't win here, time to pack up the tents and head back into his 9/11 bunker.

According to the Washington Post here are the latest delegate counts.
Needed to nominate: 1191
Total delegates: 2380

• Mitt Romney - 59
• Mike Huckabee - 40
• John McCain - 36
• Fred Thompson - 5
• Ron Paul - 4
• Rudy Giuliani - 1

Three down, 47 to go

Iowa went first and then Tuesday, New Hampshire. The Wyoming Republicans snuck in there between the two. Here's how they went:

Iowa (Republicans):

1. Huckabee - 37%, 17 delegates
2. Romney - 25%, 12 delegates
3. McCain - 13%, 3 delegates
4. Thompson - 13%, 3 delegates
5. Paul - 10%, 2 delegates
6. Giuliani - 4%, 0 delegates
7. Hunter - 1%, 0 delegates

Iowa (Democrats)

1. Obama - 38%, 16 delegates
2. Edwards - 30%, 14 delegates
3. Clinton - 29%, 15 delegates

Wyoming (Republicans)

1. Romney - 67%, 8 delegates
2. Thompson - 25%, 3 delegates
3. Hunter - 8%, 1 delegate (OH, HE'S ON FIRE NOW!)

New Hampshire (Democrats)

1. Clinton - 39%, 9 delegates
2. Obama - 37%, 9 delegates
3. Edwards - 17%, 3 delegates
   

New Hampshire (Republicans)

1. McCain - 37%, 7 delegates
2. Romney - 32%, 4 delegates
3. Huckabee - 11%, 1 delegate

Now its on to Michigan then Nevada, and South Carolina.

If you need a primer on how the delegate selection process works, read this.

Done With Hawkeyes, Off to Granites

For the Republicans - Huckabee vanquishes the Mormon and heads off to New Hampshire without much money or support. How big will the bounce be? Is it enough to stop the surging John McCain, who is fighting his last stand in the Granite State. Will New Hampshire make McCain the "new Comeback Kid?" We'll find out Tuesday. What is evident is that by Tuesday the Republicans should be down to a three man race. Sorry, Dr. Paul, your campaign is terminal. And if Romney comes in a distant third, you should be able to stick a fork in him, too. He'll be done.

A donkey is sort of like a horse right? For we have got ourselves a horse race for the Democrats. Obama's win was much more surprising than Huckabee's (Iowa voters think more like an evangelical Christian than a black man from the city) and it is bad news for the Clinton camp. Well, we have said it all along, she is unelectable. Finally, the voters are coming around to that. I would have liked Edwards to have done a little better, but he is managing. I don't know how long the three man (person) race can last, but it is certainly exciting.

The Ioway to the White House (Democrats)

About three weeks from now, Democratic voters will convene for the Iowa Caucuses. On the Democratic side, it has come down to a horse race between Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. I still believe that when it comes right down to it, people will go into the polling place and say to themselves, "I can't bring myself to vote for a woman, or a black man." This is what John Edwards is counting on. He is not running for second place a second time.

However this all shakes out, the latest polls are showing that any of those three Democrats will beat the Republican nominee (in the case of Mike Huckabee, by double digits).

In the interests of full disclosure, there are other candidates running for the Democratic nomination. No, really there are.

The rest of the field:

• Senator Joe Biden (DE) - again, as I have said before, he's really running for Secretary of State.
• Senator Chris Dodd (CT) - not a chance, Chris, go back to the Senate.
• Former Senator Mike Gravel (AK/VA) - every time I say his name, Mrs. BA goes, "Who?"
• Representative Dennis Kucinich (OH) - he's got the UFO lovers vote sewn up
• Governor Bill Richardson (NM) - I really like him, but he is running for the vice presidency.

So how do we think Iowa will shake out? Here's the predicted order of finish for the first three contests (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina):

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Edwards

The lesser candidates will likely not survive after this point. Further, there is a significant possibility that the Democrats will see a brokered convention because they apportion their delegates differently than the Republicans. It is not winner take all, and will the three front runners all close in poll numbers the number of delegates for each contest could get split three ways.

Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

I Heart Huckabee?

I would like to say I thought this all the time, but it would conflict with my other belief that America does not elect a president with a vowel at the end of his name. With those disclaimers, what is up with Mike Huckabee? The new man from Hope, Arkansas, albeit from the other side of the aisle, is positioning himself to win Iowa and possibly South Carolina.

With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, here are my predictions for what the Republican field might look like going into Tsunami Tuesday.

Here are the Republican candidates, in case you have been living in a vacuum or under a rock:

• Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York
• Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas
• Duncan Hunter, Congressman from California
• John McCain, Senator from Arizona
• Ron Paul, Representative from Texas
• Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
• Tom Tancredo, Congressman from Colorado
• Fred Thompson, Actor, former Senator from Tennessee

The Washington Post has started a series on the candidates, which has been very good. It focuses on the "front-runners" and for the Republicans, that means, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and Thompson. While Congressmen Paul, Tancredo, and Hunter are certainly interesting in their own right, they will not be the nominee of their party. So, for our purposes here, they are not a factor.

Iowa: The Republicans are starving for someone that thinks like they do. Despite Mitt Romney's millions of dollars spent in the Hawkeye State, I don't think it's going to happen for him. Ditto for Rudy. Iowans will go for the guy who sounds like them.

Projected Finish:

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Giuliani
4. Thompson
5. McCain

New Hampshire: Romney's last stand. If he can't win here, next to his putative home of Massachusetts, stick a fork in him, he's done. McCain needs the big win, too, but again, as I have said all along, I never thought he would make it this far.

Projected Finish:

1. Romney
2. Giuliani
3. Huckabee
4. Thompson
5. McCain

South Carolina: The third prize in the front-loaded delegate sweepstakes. McCain has spent a lot of time here and, unfortunately it is not paying off for him. He will probably make it to this primary and they quietly walk away.

Projected Finish:

1. Huckabee
2. Giuliani
3. Romney
4. McCain
5. Thompson

Once these three contests are over, I think that both McCain and Thompson will withdraw. Giuliani still leads in most national polls on the race for the nomination, but Huckabee is closing the ground fast. The big question will be is where do the supporters of McCain and Thompson go when those tents come down? That may be the best news for Mitt Romney. In a three-person race, he will come off as the most "presidential" (again, the vowel thing) and should get a good bump going into "Super-Duper Tuesday."

I still maintain that at least one party or the other may go into their convention without one individual holding enough delegates to get the nomination on the first ballot. God, I would love that. I would take time off to sit in front of C-Span to watch.

Coming next, why can't John Edwards pass Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? Come back soon. I'll be here.