Don't Listen to Me

Look at the pictures and decide for yourself. Please. Change is Coming. Be a Part of it.

Orrin Hatch For Kennedy

Sad news that Ted Kennedy will likely miss the Democratic Convention.

His friend in the Senate, Republican Orrin Hatch wrote a song for the Senior Senator from Massachusetts. It's a little melancholy. It may make an appearance at the convention, along with a video that is being produced to honor Kennedy.

Click to hear the song.

Here's some audio from Kennedy's 1980 speech to the convention, after he conceded the nomination to Jimmy Carter.

The Democratic Race in Eight Minutes

following up on the "Democratic Race in Seven Minutes." Boy what a difference a minute makes.

Because You Don't Care About Anyone But Yourself?

Why I Continue to Run - Hillary Rodham Clinton

Democratic VP Spot Open Thread

From the 2008 Democratic Convention blog.

Who Will Be the VP for Obama?

When Obama Wins . . .

click here for lots of options

The Democratic Race in Seven Minutes

and you know it hasn't been heaven . . .

It's a Math Problem

Stop. Please. I don't care about the phone and whose there to pick it up. You people don't answer your own phones anyway. Stop. Yes, I understand that your husband wants back in. I like him (probably more than you do). You can make all the arguments you want. Sure, you've won the big states but those are states that would have voted for you anyway. My guy is winning in those states that normally vote red. He's winning traditional democratic voters. You're winning in states where Republicans are allowed to cross over and vote for you because they know you'll lose to Senator McCain.

Stop. Please. Did you not do well in math? You can't get there. Please don't reduce my party to rubble over superdelegates. All those people out there who are voting for my guy? They may not vote for you because you've been pretty nasty.

Stop. Please. Go back to the Senate. Be the Queen. We'll even make you the first woman Senate Majority Leader. Just, please, stop.

Go ahead, try any of them. You'll see. The numbers aren't there.

CNN Delegate Counter

Slate Delegate Calculator

MSNBC Primaries Sheet

No more speed, I'm almost there . . .

I don't really have time for everything that I would like to do. I can't even begin to imagine what it is like to run for president. The commanding egos that it takes to put yourself out there every day and worry about what the other guys are saying about you, afraid you might say something that will wind up on YouTube moments after you utter it.

All that being said, I have woefully neglected The Political Point. I'll try to be better. The delegate count (courtesy of MSNBC News) will stay up there at the top of the column. You should be able to click on it to get full results from the voting that has taken place. Don't forget The Fix over there on the right, which has links to columnists and stories from the Washington Post. Below that is a list of other blogs and political sites that are a little more dedicated to digesting the information and getting it out to you, dear reader.

So by the way of quick recap, here is where things stand since I was here writing last.

• Mitt Romney realized his pockets actually did have bottoms and he "suspended" his campaign. He may have been spotted selling used cars in Waltham, Massachusetts. I, mean, really. Mitt. We've had slick, but you took the cake, and the pie, and the donuts . . .
  
• Mike Huckabee is really a nice guy who likes John McCain but would happily pound him into the ground and step over his broken body if it would get him the nomination. He is really working the double-edged sword, to see if the VP slot comes to him, playing coy.
• John McCain. Excuse me? Waitress? A serving of crow over here for the Brave Astronaut. I left the man for dead and he has arisen Phoenix-like to nearly secure the nomination. Everybody should go and read this again.

As it looks like McCain will be the nominee, the question is raising its head - who will be his veep? This is a very important question for a man who would be 72 on Inauguration Day. There is of course the "Huckabee Speculation," Governor Pawlenty, as mentioned in the article linked above, a friend who is a McCain supporter who has some inside information that Lindsay Graham is being seriously considered. Over on my regular blog, I have started a series of recapping the Presidents of the United States, which will end on Election Day. When you look at the first few presidents, several started out as Secretary of State. Vice President Rice, anyone?

On the Democratic side, John Edwards slunk away with his tail between his legs. His departure left me with the option of voting for Obama, which I did, in yesterday's "Potomac Primary." It was nice to vote in a primary, where things mattered. The general consensus is that Maryland hasn't been competitive since George Wallace visited Laurel, Maryland in 1972.

• Barack Obama is the man to beat. He stands alongside Hillary Clinton, WHO IS UNELECTABLE. Go watch this video and then come back. Go ahead. I'll wait. . . . Isn't that one of the best things you have ever seen? Change is good. Join with me. Get on the Obama train.
• Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. Wrote yourself a $5 million check. Shook up your staff. And what did it get you? Not much, you lost the delegate lead, the momentum, the schedule that favored you. Please, we're begging you. Go back to the Senate. Be Queen of the Senate. Get out of the way of history. Please.

I feel like I'm watching those Bugs Bunny cartoons with her. "I dare you to step over this line!" Each line is another primary or caucus. She has staked her campaign on winning Texas and Ohio. Hey, Hil? Give Rudy a call. Ask him how spending all his time in one state, gambling on winning it worked out for him.

Stay tuned, the wild ride is not yet over. Not by a longshot.

"A President Like My Father"

When the Kennedy family steps up, I listen. Granted, I remember Ted Kennedy's abortive attempt to unseat Jimmy Carter in 1980, but when the Lion of the Senate roars, it's time to sit up and take notice.

Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) has joined with his niece, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, in endorsing Barack Obama for President of the United States.

In yesterday's New York Times, Caroline, the child of John F. Kennedy, endorsed Obama in an op-ed piece, A President Like My Father.

Of the remaining candidates in the race, I have been leading toward John Edwards. I have long maintained that Hillary, while dominant, is unelectable. Obama is fresh, he's new, he represents change. But I still don't know if this country is ready to elect a black man. I will admit to being very impressed at the margin of victory in South Carolina.

For now, I'll go along and see what Super Duper Tuesday brings.

What About Mike Gravel?

So I guess I am not going to have a chance to vote for Mike Gravel in the MD Primary . . . there is no word from Mad Mike. His whereabouts are unknown. Saturday, the Democrats will complete the other part of the South Carolina Primary. At this moment, the remaining candidates are debating in Myrtle Beach.

I was getting a haircut today and on my left was an older white woman getting her hair cut by an African-American woman, probably in her late 20s-early 30s. I happened to overhear when they started talking politics. I was intrigued to hear that the older white woman was more inclined to vote for Hillary after she showed some emotion before the NH primary. The black woman was going to vote for her until that point. It was a little microcosm of the electorate that I found interesting.

I am still disappointed by John Edwards. If he can't win in South Carolina, there may be no future for him or a role at the convention for that matter. I also can't see him taking the number 2 spot again.

Here is how the delegate count looks for the Democrats among the four remaining candidates.

Needed to nominate: 2025
Total delegate votes: 4049

• Hillary Clinton - 236
• Barack Obama - 136
• John Edwards - 50
• Dennis Kucinich - 1
  

The Ioway to the White House (Democrats)

About three weeks from now, Democratic voters will convene for the Iowa Caucuses. On the Democratic side, it has come down to a horse race between Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. I still believe that when it comes right down to it, people will go into the polling place and say to themselves, "I can't bring myself to vote for a woman, or a black man." This is what John Edwards is counting on. He is not running for second place a second time.

However this all shakes out, the latest polls are showing that any of those three Democrats will beat the Republican nominee (in the case of Mike Huckabee, by double digits).

In the interests of full disclosure, there are other candidates running for the Democratic nomination. No, really there are.

The rest of the field:

• Senator Joe Biden (DE) - again, as I have said before, he's really running for Secretary of State.
• Senator Chris Dodd (CT) - not a chance, Chris, go back to the Senate.
• Former Senator Mike Gravel (AK/VA) - every time I say his name, Mrs. BA goes, "Who?"
• Representative Dennis Kucinich (OH) - he's got the UFO lovers vote sewn up
• Governor Bill Richardson (NM) - I really like him, but he is running for the vice presidency.

So how do we think Iowa will shake out? Here's the predicted order of finish for the first three contests (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina):

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Edwards

The lesser candidates will likely not survive after this point. Further, there is a significant possibility that the Democrats will see a brokered convention because they apportion their delegates differently than the Republicans. It is not winner take all, and will the three front runners all close in poll numbers the number of delegates for each contest could get split three ways.

Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Who Will be the Democratic Number 2?

• Sen. Evan Bayh of IN - Centrist Democrat who could put IN and OH in play simultaneously, good family and media image, broad executive and legislative experience, BUT cannot guarantee IN, not a strong public speaker, low-wattage personality.
• Gov. Phil Bredesen of TN - Executive experience at state and local levels, puts TN in play, moderate Southern/Border Democrat, personal wealth, BUT no foreign policy experience, bland personality.
• Sen. Bob Casey of PA - Moderate Democrat, giant-killer of Santorum in '06, guarantees PA.
• Gov. Jon Corzine of NJ - Executive and legislative experience, strong business credentials, personal wealth, BUT adds nothing electorally, perception that NJ=corruption and Corzine has had more than his personal share of it, another liberal Democrat from the Northeast.
• Gov. Mike Easley of NC - Executive experience, good match for northern liberal, puts NC in play, BUT dull persona, no foreign policy experience.
• Sen. Russ Feingold of WI - Broad legislative experience, strong netroots backing, highly intelligent, clean as a hound's tooth, BUT very liberal Democrat, twice divorced, something of a gadfly, unable to be controlled by nominee or, eventually, the White House.
• Sen. Amy Klobuchar of MN - Keeps MN in D column, woman, good counter-move to Pawlenty, some legislative and law enforcement experience, BUT MN already likely to be D, liberal record, minimal elected office experience, no foreign policy background.
• Sen. Mary Landrieu of LA - Centrist Southern Democrat, woman, may possibly be able to put LA in play, long legislative experience, could make Bush Katrina response a big issue, BUT by no means can she guarantee LA, much less any other electoral votes.
• Sen. Blanche Lincoln of AR - Moderate Democrat, Southern, woman, considerable legislative experience, puts AR in play, BUT AR not guaranteed, and not many electoral votes besides, bland persona.
• Gov. Joe Manchin of WV - Executive experience, moderate Democrat, puts WV in play, BUT WV is a tough sell nationally, no electoral votes outside WV guaranteed, no foreign policy experience.
• Gov. Janet Napolitano of AZ - Western executive, woman, puts AZ in play, BUT no national security experience, unknown nationally.
• Sen. Bill Nelson of FL - Only Democrat who can probably deliver FL and thus the White House, long legislative experience, moderate Southern D, BUT FL not guaranteed even with Nelson, not a strong persona.
• Sen. Mark Pryor of AR - Moderate Democrat, Southern, good political instincts, puts AR in play, BUT little foreign policy or executive experience, bland persona.
• Gov. Ed Rendell of PA - Strong executive experience at state and local levels, key state that GOP always targets, BUT relatively little national security background, PA ought to be Blue anyway.
• Gov. Bill Richardson of NM - He's got it all: The resume of the year, executive and legislative credentials, the only Governor with a credible foreign policy, Hispanic, Western, BUT are the personal womanizing rumors true? We don't know but Richardson has to deal with them so the nominee--if not Richardson--doesn't have to.
• Gov. Bill Ritter of CO - Western executive, puts CO in play, BUT relatively inexperienced, problems with labor unions, too.
• Sen. Ken Salazar of CO - Key Western state, probably puts CO in D column, Hispanic, BUT no foreign policy experience, relatively new, bland persona.
• Gov. Brian Schweitzer of MT - Executive experience, Western, ebullient personality, may put MT in play, BUT adds little electorally, no foreign policy experience.
• Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of KS - Executive experience, woman, Midwest, possibly could put KS in play, BUT unknown nationally, in deep Red territory that perhaps cannot be moved, no foreign policy experience.
• Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio - Executive and legislative experience, moderate Democrat used to running in rural areas, puts the key swing state of OH in play or more, BUT depends on achievements as Governor by '08, low voltage personality, little foreign policy experience.
• Ex-Gov. Mark Warner of VA - Successful executive and businessman, puts VA and WV in play, unusually energetic, personal wealth, BUT only one-term in office, no foreign policy experience.
• Sen. Jim Webb of VA - Moderate Democrat and former Reagan Republican, might put VA in play, giant-killer of George Allen in '06 that switched Senate to D column, netroots favorite, would pound away at Iraq, national security and military experience, BUT new to Senate and elective office, might be loose cannon, certainly impossible to control, doesn't guarantee VA.

Vilsack Gets Sacked

Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack has withdrawn from the 2008 Presidential Race, a mere 15 weeks after getting into it. Vilsack announced the day after the 2006 midterm elections and brought the best "emotional" story to the race. However, he was always viewed as a underdog, despite an impressive resume and most importantly, executive experience. As most pundits will tell you there is a reason the past four of five presidents have been governors.

Vilsack's withdrawal could be good for Bill Richardson of New Mexico, one of the few other governors in the race and also an impressive resume. I believe Richardson will do well if he can survive the front runner shuffle being conducted by the Senator from Illinois and the Senator from New York.

Stay tuned. There's still a long way to go and lots more time for people to stumble.

January - A Busy Month!

It's only January 22, and we have had a flurry of candidates getting into the race. Storming into the race and out in front are the two Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Over the weekend, Senator Sam Brownback announced his candidacy. Governor Bill Richardson takes aim at the Hispanic vote by announcing the formation of his exploratory committee.

A news report tonight on the Jim Lehrer News Hour contained a quote that candidates will need to raise nearly $2 million a week over the next year to stay viable. It is the first time since 1928 there is no sitting president or vice president in the field, hence the plethora of candidates.

It is still too soon to tell who the nominee will be and whether it will even be one of the current candidates or a dark horse not yet being discussed.

Democrats in:

• Joe Biden (Sen.-DE) - announced he is running but no formal candidacy announcement yet.
• Hillary Rodham Clinton (Sen.-NY) - announced her candidacy on the Internet, realizing the power of that medium. But can she win?
• Christopher Dodd (Sen.-CT) - announced candidate with little appeal outside of his native Connecticut. Could be a good veep for a candidate outside the Northeast, like . . .
• John Edwards (former Sen.-NC) - the former VP candidate in 2004 has remade himself as a populist and as the "Anti-Hillary." It could work to his advantage.
• Mike Gravel (former Sen.-VA) - who? Gravel represented Alaska in the House and was front and center during the Watergate issues. Since relocating to Virginia, he is largely unnoticed in the field.
• Dennis Kucinich (Rep.-OH) - A candidate in 2004, he believes the Democrats are not advancing the anti-Iraq agenda enough. Not likely to be a contender.
• Barack Obama (Sen.-IL) - filed his paperwork for his committee this month and will announce in February. Can he stop the Hillary onslaught?
• Bill Richardson (Gov.-NM) - a candidate I firmly believe can win the presidency.
• Tom Vilsack (former Gov.-IA) - restricted by term limits, he announced his candidacy the day after Election Day 2006. Could be a VP candidate.

Republicans in:

• Sam Brownback (Sen.-KS) - the choice of conservative candidates, he could keep the Republicans to the right.
• Jim Gilmore (former Gov.-VA) - no, really. Jim Gilmore? for President?
• Rudy Giuliani (former Mayor-NYC) - the 9/11 icon could make the Republicans worry about the message he brings to the party.
• Duncan Hunter (Rep.-CA) - a House Member with one issue to run on, the military.
• John McCain (Sen.-AZ) - the front runner, if he runs.
• Mitt Romney (former Gov.-MA) - sometimes conservative, sometimes liberal, Mitt is an enigma, and that's dangerous.
• Tom Tancredo (Rep.-CO) - another House member with one issue, but this one is immigration. He won't go quietly.
• Tommy Thompson (former Gov.-WI) - also a former member of the Bush Cabinet, he may show up on VP short lists, but that's about all.

Senator Dodd for President

Christopher Dodd, the senior Senator from Connecticut has decided to run for president. Okay, but why is the next question. He flirted with the idea in 2004 and now thinks the time has come for him to "get out of the bleachers and play on the floor." Too bad that his pickup game is going to be a little short from the other players on the floor.

But I wish him luck. Dodd is a good Northeast liberal. And we all know how successful they are in winning the presidency. What does he have going for him? A prominent father who was also a Senator from Connecticut. Remind you of anyone else?

Good luck, Chris. I like you but I don't see you making it past Super Tuesday.

An End of the Year Recap - Democrats

Here is a year-end look at who is in and out for the Democratic nomination for the presidency:

IN:

• Dennis Kucinich - the Ohio Congressman has jumped into the race yet again. He believes the Democrats are not being anti-war enough for his tastes.
• Tom Vilsack - the popular governor of Iowa (home of the first caucuses) has declared and is off and running. Enjoy the attention now, for it won't last.

EXPLORING:

• Joe Biden - the Delaware Senator has done this before. He should know better. It won't work this time either.
• John Edwards - his website announced his candidacy before he did. A clear party favorite, can he make people forget that he was John Kerry's running mate in 2004?
• Bill Richardson - the New Mexico governor would be the first Hispanic candidate. From a red state, he could certainly make the Democrats sit up and take notice.

RUMORS:

• Wesley Clark - a contender in 2004, he brings military gravitas to the party. Can he get his message out now?
• Hillary Clinton - I like her. She's a fine Senator. But please, stay there. Make a career in the Senate. You could be the first woman Majority Leader. Please?
• Christopher Dodd - the Connecticut Senator is making noise. For now, that's all it is.
• Al Gore - he says he's not running. If he does, he can always say that he one in 2000 and he is just trying to get back in the front door.
• John Kerry - he will turn 65 in 2008, he will be up for reelection. Will someone whisper in his ear to go away?
• Barack Obama - he's well spoken, he's good looking, he's African-American, he's young, and he's inexperienced. By all means, let's call him the front runner.

OUT:

• Evan Bayh - the Senator from Indiana formed an exploratory committee and then declared he would not be a candidate. Too bad. He could have been a serious contender.
• Tom Daschle - the former South Dakota Senator should think about running to return to the Senate if Tim Johnson decides to retire after his health scare.
• Howard Dean - the screamer has done a good job as DNC Chair. He wants to keep that job and help elect the next president, which he says will not be him.
• Russ Feingold - the Wisconsin Senator announced he would enjoy being in the majority and work for the people from the Senate and not on the presidential campaign trail.
• Mark Warner - the former Virginia governor said his family asked him not to run. Again, a candidate from a red state, with deep pockets, he could have been a serious contender. An excellent VP choice.

Bayh Says Aye

While former Senator Tom Daschle (D-SD) retreats to the sidelines, announcing he will not run for the presidency in 2008, the "Republicrat" from Indiana has announced plans to seek the top job. Evan Bayh, son of Birch, has announced plans to form an exploratory committee and make a candidacy announcement early in the new year.

I applaud this move. I have been telling anyone who will listen that the Democrats will not win back the White House with another Northeastern liberal. Take a look at the two last Democratic presidents - Arkansas and Georgia. The successful candidate will come from a red state with a proven record of winning. Bayh has served as both Governor of Indiana and as its Senator.

I grew up in the Northeast. But I like winning, too. Today, Evan's my guy.

Happy Birthday Senator Biden!

Today is Senator Joseph Biden's 64th birthday. He was on the Today show this morning and was asked about his presidential ambitions. He reiterated his plans to run and that he would form an exploratory committee soon and plan a formal announcement in 2007.

The man has run before and it didn't go well. He has skeletons in his closet with "plagiarism" banners hanging on their frame. And he's from Delaware. No offense intended to the small state, but can a senator from Delaware attain the highest office in the land?

Senator Feingold Votes Nay

Russ Feingold (D-WI) has opted to stay out of the presidential contest in 2008, reports say. The Wisconsin maverick, a staunch anti-war Senator, would have brought a fresh perspective to the contest. With Feingold in the majority in the new Senate, he has opted to stay there and try to "undo much of the damage that one-party rule has done to America."

Feingold admitted his candidacy was a long shot, and he was leaning more against a run than for it. Like Mark Warner, who announced he would not be a candidate, both would make outstanding veep possibilities.