Equal Time: Who's the Republican VP

Some interesting choices here in this list.

The GOP Veep Sweepstakes

No. Really, He's Old

And here is an entire blog devoted to telling you who or what is younger than John McCain.

Some of the things from the blog:

1. FM Radio
2. Keith Richards
3. Superman
4. Mount Rushmore
5. Both of Barack Obama's parents (and they're dead now)
6. Bugs Bunny
7. 49 of the 50 US Governors (thanks Ruth Ann Minner - D, DE)
   
8. The Golden Gate Bridge
9. The TV Dinner
10. Scrabble
    

Well that's one nominee

So we know who the Republican nominee will be. Hang on a sec, let me grab a forkful of crow here. I left John McCain for dead last year, along with most people. But McCain rose from the ashes of his own political campaign and snatched the nomination of his party away from those on the far right. And he pretty much did it without their help.

Today, McCain traveled back to Washington, where he met with President Bush. There is nothing more that brings joy to Democrats then to see the two of them arm in arm at the White House. The longer we can tag him as a Republican, the better. So it's a good thing that he is one, isn't it? Let's try and remember that, OK? Besides, he shouldn't be able to serve as president, right?

The next big thing will be to see who McCain picks as his running mate. Larry Sabato, who runs his "Crystal Ball" out at the University of Virginia, had a good article with McCain's choices.

As a Democrat, I am certainly troubled at the direction of my party. This race needs to be over and in my next post, I will go over that in a little more detail. But bottom line is, waiting is bad, because my party can't decide on a nominee and the other party has theirs and he gets to sit back and wait.

No more speed, I'm almost there . . .

I don't really have time for everything that I would like to do. I can't even begin to imagine what it is like to run for president. The commanding egos that it takes to put yourself out there every day and worry about what the other guys are saying about you, afraid you might say something that will wind up on YouTube moments after you utter it.

All that being said, I have woefully neglected The Political Point. I'll try to be better. The delegate count (courtesy of MSNBC News) will stay up there at the top of the column. You should be able to click on it to get full results from the voting that has taken place. Don't forget The Fix over there on the right, which has links to columnists and stories from the Washington Post. Below that is a list of other blogs and political sites that are a little more dedicated to digesting the information and getting it out to you, dear reader.

So by the way of quick recap, here is where things stand since I was here writing last.

• Mitt Romney realized his pockets actually did have bottoms and he "suspended" his campaign. He may have been spotted selling used cars in Waltham, Massachusetts. I, mean, really. Mitt. We've had slick, but you took the cake, and the pie, and the donuts . . .
  
• Mike Huckabee is really a nice guy who likes John McCain but would happily pound him into the ground and step over his broken body if it would get him the nomination. He is really working the double-edged sword, to see if the VP slot comes to him, playing coy.
• John McCain. Excuse me? Waitress? A serving of crow over here for the Brave Astronaut. I left the man for dead and he has arisen Phoenix-like to nearly secure the nomination. Everybody should go and read this again.

As it looks like McCain will be the nominee, the question is raising its head - who will be his veep? This is a very important question for a man who would be 72 on Inauguration Day. There is of course the "Huckabee Speculation," Governor Pawlenty, as mentioned in the article linked above, a friend who is a McCain supporter who has some inside information that Lindsay Graham is being seriously considered. Over on my regular blog, I have started a series of recapping the Presidents of the United States, which will end on Election Day. When you look at the first few presidents, several started out as Secretary of State. Vice President Rice, anyone?

On the Democratic side, John Edwards slunk away with his tail between his legs. His departure left me with the option of voting for Obama, which I did, in yesterday's "Potomac Primary." It was nice to vote in a primary, where things mattered. The general consensus is that Maryland hasn't been competitive since George Wallace visited Laurel, Maryland in 1972.

• Barack Obama is the man to beat. He stands alongside Hillary Clinton, WHO IS UNELECTABLE. Go watch this video and then come back. Go ahead. I'll wait. . . . Isn't that one of the best things you have ever seen? Change is good. Join with me. Get on the Obama train.
• Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. Wrote yourself a $5 million check. Shook up your staff. And what did it get you? Not much, you lost the delegate lead, the momentum, the schedule that favored you. Please, we're begging you. Go back to the Senate. Be Queen of the Senate. Get out of the way of history. Please.

I feel like I'm watching those Bugs Bunny cartoons with her. "I dare you to step over this line!" Each line is another primary or caucus. She has staked her campaign on winning Texas and Ohio. Hey, Hil? Give Rudy a call. Ask him how spending all his time in one state, gambling on winning it worked out for him.

Stay tuned, the wild ride is not yet over. Not by a longshot.

Mac is Back, The Hunt[er] is Over

Another weekend, another two Republican contests in the books. The Nevada Caucuses and the GOP South Carolina primary were this past Saturday. John McCain is continuing his "Lazarus-like" comeback, capturing a primary that eluded him eight years ago. The two events also knocked Duncan Hunter from the presidential sweepstakes (but what about the one delegate he won?).

I still can't believe that McCain can win. I have heard a lot of talk about getting him to commit to serving only one term. Like he would go on the record and aver that. We will see how things go in Florida this weekend and then on Tsunami Tuesday. Of course, Florida is shaping up as the last stand of Rudy Giuliani. He has had the state to himself for some time and if he doesn't win here, time to pack up the tents and head back into his 9/11 bunker.

According to the Washington Post here are the latest delegate counts.
Needed to nominate: 1191
Total delegates: 2380

• Mitt Romney - 59
• Mike Huckabee - 40
• John McCain - 36
• Fred Thompson - 5
• Ron Paul - 4
• Rudy Giuliani - 1

I Heart Huckabee?

I would like to say I thought this all the time, but it would conflict with my other belief that America does not elect a president with a vowel at the end of his name. With those disclaimers, what is up with Mike Huckabee? The new man from Hope, Arkansas, albeit from the other side of the aisle, is positioning himself to win Iowa and possibly South Carolina.

With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, here are my predictions for what the Republican field might look like going into Tsunami Tuesday.

Here are the Republican candidates, in case you have been living in a vacuum or under a rock:

• Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York
• Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas
• Duncan Hunter, Congressman from California
• John McCain, Senator from Arizona
• Ron Paul, Representative from Texas
• Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
• Tom Tancredo, Congressman from Colorado
• Fred Thompson, Actor, former Senator from Tennessee

The Washington Post has started a series on the candidates, which has been very good. It focuses on the "front-runners" and for the Republicans, that means, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and Thompson. While Congressmen Paul, Tancredo, and Hunter are certainly interesting in their own right, they will not be the nominee of their party. So, for our purposes here, they are not a factor.

Iowa: The Republicans are starving for someone that thinks like they do. Despite Mitt Romney's millions of dollars spent in the Hawkeye State, I don't think it's going to happen for him. Ditto for Rudy. Iowans will go for the guy who sounds like them.

Projected Finish:

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Giuliani
4. Thompson
5. McCain

New Hampshire: Romney's last stand. If he can't win here, next to his putative home of Massachusetts, stick a fork in him, he's done. McCain needs the big win, too, but again, as I have said all along, I never thought he would make it this far.

Projected Finish:

1. Romney
2. Giuliani
3. Huckabee
4. Thompson
5. McCain

South Carolina: The third prize in the front-loaded delegate sweepstakes. McCain has spent a lot of time here and, unfortunately it is not paying off for him. He will probably make it to this primary and they quietly walk away.

Projected Finish:

1. Huckabee
2. Giuliani
3. Romney
4. McCain
5. Thompson

Once these three contests are over, I think that both McCain and Thompson will withdraw. Giuliani still leads in most national polls on the race for the nomination, but Huckabee is closing the ground fast. The big question will be is where do the supporters of McCain and Thompson go when those tents come down? That may be the best news for Mitt Romney. In a three-person race, he will come off as the most "presidential" (again, the vowel thing) and should get a good bump going into "Super-Duper Tuesday."

I still maintain that at least one party or the other may go into their convention without one individual holding enough delegates to get the nomination on the first ballot. God, I would love that. I would take time off to sit in front of C-Span to watch.

Coming next, why can't John Edwards pass Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? Come back soon. I'll be here.

Who Will Be the Republican Number 2?

• Gov. Haley Barbour of MS - Solid Southern conservative, sharp strategist, national reputation as ex-RNC Chair, understands the media, BUT adds nothing electorally, may be too conservative for country, has mission to complete in post-Katrina MS.
• Ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush - Strong record as Governor, critical swing state, 100 percent name ID, BUT his last name is tarnished for a generation.
• Sen. Susan Collins of ME - Moderate-liberal, woman with centrist appeal, could put ME into play, BUT social views would cause consternation among GOP conservatives.
• Sen. Elizabeth Dole of NC - Stellar "brand name" in GOP, solid conservative, woman, wouldn't be controversial, BUT adds little electorally, unexciting candidate.
• Sen. Lindsay Graham of SC - McCain favorite, some centrist appeal, long legislative experience, BUT adds nothing electorally, has irritated many conservatives yet totally pro-Iraq War, brings back Clinton impeachment issue.
• Sen. Chuck Hagel of NE - If Iraq is a total disaster, Hagel is a way for GOP nominee to separate himself from Bush, BUT adds nothing electorally, would split party, strong personality would overshadow presidential candidate.
• Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee of AR - Moderate conservative, long executive record, weight loss twist, BUT tax-cutting wing doesn't like him. Offers little or nothing electorally.
• Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of TX - Solid conservative except on abortion, woman, long political experience, appeal in South plus West, BUT adds little electorally. Only Texan who could be on the ticket in '08 (sorry, Rick Perry and John Cornyn), but is the Bush-whacked Lone Star State out of the running totally this time?
• Sen. Joe Lieberman of CT - Technically a Democrat-Fusion ticket, long Senate and foreign policy experience, hawk, could put CT in play, BUT his liberal views on economic and social issues would be anathema to GOP.
• Gov. Tim Pawlenty of MN - Conservative with a Midwest twist, executive experience, swing state, McCain favorite, BUT questionable whether he could carry MN after weak 2006 performance.
• Gov. Sonny Perdue of GA - Solid conservative, Southern base, executive experience, BUT perhaps too conservative for the country, adds nothing electorally.
• Gov. Jodi Rell of CT - Liberal on social issues, woman, puts her state in play, BUT so liberal a GOP convention walk-out might occur.
• Gov. Bob Riley of AL - Solid conservative, congressional and executive experience, BUT gains the GOP nothing electorally. No foreign policy experience.
• Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice - Black, female, impressive mind, 100 percent name ID, BUT Iraq, Iraq, Iraq: She owns it too. Bush III when almost no one wants that.
• Gov. Mark Sanford of SC - Solid Southern conservative, executive and legislative experience, 2000 McCain backer, BUT adds nothing electorally, mixed record in Palmetto State.
• Sen. Gordon Smith of OR - Centrist appeal, could make OR competitive, BUT too liberal for most in GOP, likely loss of his GOP Senate seat (up in 2008).
• Sen. Olympia Snowe of ME - Liberal who appeals to center, woman, long legislative experience, could put ME into play, BUT may be too liberal for most in GOP, possible convention walk-out.
• Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson of TN/Hollywood/DC - Solid conservative, McCain supporter--at least until he got the White House bug recently, Reaganesque, great on TV, BUT time may have passed, adds little electorally.
• Sen. David Vitter of LA - Endorsed Rudy, possible Southern VP for him, good media image, could crusade for Katrina relief--separating the ticket from Bush, BUT relatively unknown and inexperienced, adds nothing electorally, hasn't been vetted.
• Sen. George Voinovich of OH - Long executive and legislative experience, could be the only way for GOP to save the key swing state of Ohio, BUT nationally unknown, somewhat quirky in Senate.

January - A Busy Month!

It's only January 22, and we have had a flurry of candidates getting into the race. Storming into the race and out in front are the two Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Over the weekend, Senator Sam Brownback announced his candidacy. Governor Bill Richardson takes aim at the Hispanic vote by announcing the formation of his exploratory committee.

A news report tonight on the Jim Lehrer News Hour contained a quote that candidates will need to raise nearly $2 million a week over the next year to stay viable. It is the first time since 1928 there is no sitting president or vice president in the field, hence the plethora of candidates.

It is still too soon to tell who the nominee will be and whether it will even be one of the current candidates or a dark horse not yet being discussed.

Democrats in:

• Joe Biden (Sen.-DE) - announced he is running but no formal candidacy announcement yet.
• Hillary Rodham Clinton (Sen.-NY) - announced her candidacy on the Internet, realizing the power of that medium. But can she win?
• Christopher Dodd (Sen.-CT) - announced candidate with little appeal outside of his native Connecticut. Could be a good veep for a candidate outside the Northeast, like . . .
• John Edwards (former Sen.-NC) - the former VP candidate in 2004 has remade himself as a populist and as the "Anti-Hillary." It could work to his advantage.
• Mike Gravel (former Sen.-VA) - who? Gravel represented Alaska in the House and was front and center during the Watergate issues. Since relocating to Virginia, he is largely unnoticed in the field.
• Dennis Kucinich (Rep.-OH) - A candidate in 2004, he believes the Democrats are not advancing the anti-Iraq agenda enough. Not likely to be a contender.
• Barack Obama (Sen.-IL) - filed his paperwork for his committee this month and will announce in February. Can he stop the Hillary onslaught?
• Bill Richardson (Gov.-NM) - a candidate I firmly believe can win the presidency.
• Tom Vilsack (former Gov.-IA) - restricted by term limits, he announced his candidacy the day after Election Day 2006. Could be a VP candidate.

Republicans in:

• Sam Brownback (Sen.-KS) - the choice of conservative candidates, he could keep the Republicans to the right.
• Jim Gilmore (former Gov.-VA) - no, really. Jim Gilmore? for President?
• Rudy Giuliani (former Mayor-NYC) - the 9/11 icon could make the Republicans worry about the message he brings to the party.
• Duncan Hunter (Rep.-CA) - a House Member with one issue to run on, the military.
• John McCain (Sen.-AZ) - the front runner, if he runs.
• Mitt Romney (former Gov.-MA) - sometimes conservative, sometimes liberal, Mitt is an enigma, and that's dangerous.
• Tom Tancredo (Rep.-CO) - another House member with one issue, but this one is immigration. He won't go quietly.
• Tommy Thompson (former Gov.-WI) - also a former member of the Bush Cabinet, he may show up on VP short lists, but that's about all.

Representative Tancredo slips in under the radar

Representative Tom Tancredo (R-CO) has filed papers to form a presidential exploratory committee. It was not an unexpected move, but Tancredo is another longshot for the nomination. He joins another House member, Duncan Hunter (R-CA) in the race for the Republican nomination.

As I said when Hunter got in the race, the last House member to go to the Presidency was James Garfield in 1880. With the star power on the Republican side (Giuliani, McCain), Hunter and Tancredo can only hope to get their issues out there and keep the Republicans on message.

Iowa and New Hampshire are but a year away!

Mitt Romney Joins the Field

After the nation bade farewell to the 38th President, Gerald Ford, outgoing Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney announced the formation of an exploratory committee in preparation for a run for the Republican nomination for President in 2008.

This has been expected for some time and he joins a field still looking for a front runner. John McCain is still considered the front runner, but, while exploring a run, I continue to maintain that he will ultimately decide not to run.

Romney's religion may be a hurdle for him and he is not well liked by the conservative wing of the party. However, he has proved a good administrator in Massachusetts. Romney also has a good political pedigree. His father was George Romney, Republican Governor of Illinois and unsuccessful presidential candidate in 1968. Romney joins several others in the Republican party: who have already declared their candidacies or have formed exploratory committees:

• Senator Sam Brownback (KS)
• Rudy Giuliani
• Congressman Duncan Hunter (CA)
• Senator John McCain (AZ)
• Secretary Tommy Thompson

An End of the Year Recap - Republicans

Here is a year-end look at who is in and out for the Republican nomination for the presidency:

IN:

• Rudy Giuliani - the major contender Republican candidate is in the race right now and he's getting all the press and the attention. But does he have the stamina?
• Duncan Hunter - the Congressman from California announced he would run while running for reelection to the House. Last House member to win the presidency? James Garfield in 1880.

EXPLORING:

• Sam Brownback - now in the minority, the Kansas Senator is making noise about running a very conservative campaign.
• Jim Gilmore - the former Virginia governor is a conservative favorite and a definite long-shot.
• John McCain - the undeclared front runner. However, I still don't see him running. He will be 72 in 2008, which, if he's elected, would make him the oldest person elected president.
• Mitt Romney - the outgoing Massachusetts governor is expected to join the race in early 2007.
• Tommy Thompson - the former Wisconsin Governor and Cabinet Secretary has formed an exploratory committee. Will he find anything or anyone to care?

RUMORS:

• Jeb Bush - Still the wild card, term limited, Bush won't be able to run again as governor of Florida. Will he seek to continue the Bush dynasty?
• Newt Gingrich - the former Speaker has said he will wait until Labor Day 2007 to make a decision. If there is no consensus candidate or the issues he believes in are not being addressed, he will get in. He can be a serious contender. My dark horse.
• Chuck Hagel - the moderate senator from Nebraska has been rumored to want the higher office. But can he reach back to the base?
• Mike Huckabee - the outgoing Arkansas Governor. Can Arkansas produce another President?
• George Pataki - The outgoing New York governor has presidential ambitions but will likely make a better veep candidate.
• Condoleezza Rice - A popular draft candidate, she may instead run for senate in California in 2006, especially if Diane Feinstein retires.

OUT:

• George Allen - he will spend the next two years wondering how he lost his Senate reelection.
• Haley Barbour - the Mississippi Governor and former RNC Chair got a lot of press after Katrina, but has said he is not running.
• Bill Frist - the outgoing Majority Leader is going home to Tennessee and is "retiring" from public service.
• Rick Santorum - see George Allen, but in Pennsylvania.

Brownback Goes Forth and a Republican Scorecard

Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS) has announced the formation of an exploratory committee for a presidential run. Brownback has made clear that he will focus on social conservative issues, and is clearly the most conservative Republican to join the field. He is the fifth Republican to make plans to seek the presidency.

For those keeping score:

• Senator John McCain (AZ) - exploratory committee
• former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani - exploratory committee
• Rep. Duncan Hunter (CA) - exploratory committee
• Governor Mitt Romney (MA) - expected to join race in early 2007
• Governor Mike Huckabee (AZ) - on radar screens
• Senator Chuck Hagel (NE) - on radar screens
• former Speaker Newt Gingrich (GA) - on radar screens
• Governor George Pataki - longshot
• Secretary (and former Governor) Tommy Thompson - longshot
• Senator Bill Frist (TN) - NO
• Senator George Allen - NO
• Senator Rick Santorum - NO

Hagel Hems and Haws

Chuck Hagel (R-NE) is mulling over a run for the presidency, something he has been thinking about for more than a year. He intends to make his plans public early in 2007, but the centrist Republican could shake up the party with a fight for the nomination.

Those Republicans from the right, clinging desperately to the shreds of the party of Goldwater and Reagan, are fearing the Republicans getting into the race (Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and now Hagel) would move the Republican party away from its base and into a new slot in the American political spectrum.

But will it work? Who knows?

Frist Opts Out

According to a statement on his website today, outgoing Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) is not running for president in 2008. It should be noted the statement is worded as such: "In the Bible, God tells us for everything there is a season, and for me, for now, this season of being an elected official has come to a close. I do not intend to run for president in 2008."

He does not intend? Not the most definitive of statements. But let's take the God-fearing doctor at his word shall we? Another Republican out of the pool.

And Rudy Makes Three!

CNN is reporting that Rudy Giuliani has taken his first steps in a 2008 run for the presidency, filing papers to form an exploratory committee. This comes on the heels of John McCain's announcement that he is contemplating a run, but will not form his exploratory committee until early in 2007.

According to recent polls, Giuliani is popular among Republicans and independents who lean Republican. His moderate views make him both a good and bad candidate. The religious conservatives will take issue with his moderate views on gay rights and late-term abortions, but he could quickly emerge as a centrist candidate.

However, if Giuliani were to secure the nomination, and that is a HUGE if, a contest between Giuliani, a true New Yorker, and Hillary Clinton, a new New Yorker, could prove very interesting.

McCain Joins the Fray - Surprise!

On today's Meet the Press, John McCain (R-AZ) conceded to Tim Russert that he is planning / contemplating / thinking about a presidential run in 2008. He is certainly the front-runner for the nomination, but I still think he will fade in a strong field.

Remember this is a man who could not stop the George W. Bush bandwagon in 2000. Also, you can't read an article about McCain which does not contain the sentence, "If elected, McCain would be the oldest person ever inaugurated."

Senator McCain is a great American and would make an outstanding candidate and a great president. However, I can't help but think that his ship may have sailed.

Hunting for the Top Job

Representative Duncan Hunter (R-California) stunned political pollsters today with an announcement that he was forming an exploratory committee to run for the presidency in 2008. There have been many articles on the subject, from the basic AP feeds to more in-depth commentary. Hunter, who serves the 52nd Congressional District, a district to the east of San Diego and running along the Mexican border, has been an outspoken critic of the immigration policy.

The Los Angeles Times reports that Hunter would use two main issues in his campaign, support for the U.S. Military and opposition to illegal immigration. Hunter is 52 years old and has been a Congressman for more than 25 years. He is currently chairman of the Armed Services Committee, a position he is likely to lose if the Democrats take control of the House.

While Hunter is expected to be reelected next week, his opponent, Navy veteran John Rinaldi, was on the fringes of the news conference crowd. He called Hunter's announcement a stunt to draw attention away from serious issues. "He has about as much chance of being president as I do of becoming Miss America," Rinaldi said.