Plan Accordingly

My caveat is still, if I have a ticket, and the weather is cooperative, I'm going.

Inauguration schedule released

also, here.

The Class III Senators

There have been pundits that have stated that while it does not look like the Democrats will get to 60 seats this year, it looks just as favorable in 2010 to increase the majority. Here is the current list of Class III Senators as of today.

• Bayh, Evan - (D - IN) - um, yeah, that's a Dem hold.
• Bennett, Robert F. - (R-UT) - and that would be a Rep hold.
• Bond, Christopher S. - (R – MO) - beatable, but not likely.
• Boxer, Barbara - (D- CA) - Dem hold
• Brownback, Sam - (R - KS) - likely retiring and good chance for a takeover.
• Bunning, Jim - (R - KY) - Sure, he's in the Baseball Hall of Fame, but he's still crazy. And Republican Senators in Kentucky can be (almost) beaten.
• Burr, Richard - (R - NC) - recently labeled as the most ineffective Senator. And the new Junior Senator is a Democrat. Like that trend.
• Coburn, Tom - (R - OK) - He's over there in the crazy corner with Bunning. But he's also the head of the RSCC. Unfortunately, likely safe.
• Crapo, Mike - (R – ID) - Safe.
• DeMint, Jim - (R - SC) - Rumors are he's disillusioned. Maybe he leaves?
• Dodd, Christopher J. - (D - CT) - The Senior Senator will surely be back for another term.
• Dorgan, Byron L. - (D - ND) - maybe retiring.
• Feingold, Russell D. - (D - WI) - a good, liberal, Democratic hold.
• Grassley, Chuck - (R - IA) - and crazy makes three. But not leaving, perhaps.
• Gregg, Judd - (R - NH) - Rep hold.
• Inouye, Daniel K. - (D - HI) - old, but a Dem hold.
• Isakson, Johnny - (R - GA) - finishing up his first term, does he get another?
• Leahy, Patrick J. - (D - VT) - another of the last liberals in the Senate. Don't go, Pat.
• Lincoln, Blanche L. - (D - AR) - Dem hold.
• Martinez, Mel - (R - FL) - I'd like to think he's toast.
• McCain, John - (R-AZ) - burnt toast
• Mikulski, Barbara A. - (D - MD) - no signs of retirement there.
• Murkowski, Lisa - (R - AK) - Senator Palin?
• Murray, Patty - (D - WA) - The Senator in tennis shoes is comfortable where she is.
• (OPEN) - (D- DE) - Paging Beau Biden, Paging Beau Biden. You're seat's all warm and ready for you. Come and get it.
• (OPEN) - (D - IL) - That would be President Obama's seat. Um, yeah, that's a Dem hold.
• (OPEN) - (D - NY) - Where the Secretary of State had been? Senator Clinton, perhaps? No, the other one. That guy who used to be President?
  
• Reid, Harry - (D - NV) - He has not been my favorite Majority Leader. But he's got a good majority. Let's see what he does with it.
• Salazar, Ken - (D - CO) - With Colorado's trend, he's safe
• Schumer, Charles E. - (D - NY) - wait, is that a microphone? He's safe.
• Shelby, Richard C. - (R-AL) - He might be leaving. But not a state good for takeover.
• Specter, Arlen - (R - PA) - He's old. The cancer's back. Ed Rendell is thinking of running. The best shot at a flip.
• Thune, John - (R - SD) - wait, I stand corrected.
• Vitter, David - (R - LA) - never mind, I meant this one.
• Voinovich, George V. - (R - OH) - leaving by choice or election? you pick.
• Wyden, Ron - (D - OR) - Dem hold in a Dem state
  

So What's Next?

There is a habit in my wife's family when we are relaxing enjoying a wonderful meal, we will begin to focus on the next meal. So because we are that bad, here's a list of what's coming up for the Governors in 2009 and 2010.

In 2009, 2 states will hold gubernatorial elections: Tim Kaine will be looking for work in Virginia (in one of the stupidest laws ever - Governors serving only one term) and Jon Corzine will be looking to return to Trenton despite some pretty high unfavorables.

In 2010, 36 states will have gubernatorial elections, of which 20 are currently held by Democrats and 16 by Republicans. This is the current list.

• Alabama: Bob Riley (R) - term limited and I don't see this state house switching parties.
• Alaska: Sarah Palin (R) - hey, whose this woman? Think she's got a future in the party?
• Arkansas: Mike Beebe (D) - a rarity, a Democrat in a Southern State House, can he hold it?
• Arizona: Janet Napolitano - she's term limited, likely going to Homeland Security. If not, she will crush McCain in his attempt to get reelected to the Senate.
• California: Arnold Schwarzenegger - again, term limited. Does he want to be Senator? Perhaps that Constitutional amendment will have passed and he can be VP to Sarah Palin in 2012?
• Colorado: Bill Ritter (D) - In the continuing bluing of Colorado, he stays put.
• Connecticut: Jodi Rell (R) - Somebody else who could run against Lieberman - an actual Republican.
• Florida: Charlie Crist (R) - Didn't he get married? Is he thinking of running for President in 2012? Who knows? Who cares?
• Georgia: Sonny Perdue (R) - Georgia will elect a new governor to replace the term limited Perdue. Max Cleland, is that your phone?
• Hawaii: Linda Lingle (R) - Also term limited. A Republican Governor is a very blue state. Go figure.
• Illinois: Rod Blagojevich (D) - Anyone want to bet he makes it to 2010? Rod, don't answer the door, it's probably the police. And they're not here to protect you anymore.
• Idaho: Butch Otter (R) - Whatever. You want fries with that governor?
• Iowa: Chet Culver (D) - Chet and Butch, are we going to elect Governor Spanky next?
• Kansas: Kathleen Sebelius (D) - Term limited and perhaps heading for the Supreme Court someday?
• Maine: John Baldacci (D) - A fine Governor for the Pine Tree State.
  
• Maryland: Martin O'Malley (D) - He's been a disappointment, but for the most part, he is a Democrat.
  
• Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D) - Will his friend the President, come to get him for something good?
  
• Nebraska: Dave Heineman (R) - I'm thinking reelection.
  
• New Hampshire: John Lynch (D) - pretty happy in Concord.
  
• New York: David Paterson (D) - Announced around the time he took over for Eliot Spitzer that he would run for a full term in 2010.
• Michigan: Jennifer Granholm (D) - She's term limited, but the new President may find something for her to do.
• Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty (R) - You have to think that someone is thinking bigger and better from the Gopher State, yes?
• Nevada: Jim Gibbons (R) - something tells me there is not much of a future for him.
• Ohio: Ted Strickland (D)
• Oklahoma: Brad Henry (R) - term limited and in a very red state, sure to continue with an R in this state house.
• Oregon: Ted Kulongoski (D) - term limited, but likely to stay in the blue column.
• Pennsylvania: Ed Rendell (D) - term limited, may be eyeing the Senate (running against Arlen Spector. TV Commentator Chris Matthews is rumored to have his eye on state wide office in the Keystone State.
• Rhode Island: Donald Carcieri (R) - term limited. A small state and a very democratic one - Change is coming.
  
• South Carolina: Mark Sanford (R) - term limited.
• South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) - term limited.
• Texas: Rick Perry (R) - maybe Shrub can get his old job back.
• Tennessee: Phil Bredesen (D) - A Democrat in a red state, wasn't that Al Gore's problem?
• Vermont: Jim Douglas (R) - He's hoping that Patrick Leahy decides it's time to retire. But he would probably be content to stay in Montpelier, or maybe not.
• Wisconsin: Jim Doyle (D) - pass the cheddar, he's staying.
  
• Wyoming: Dave Freudenthal (D) - term limited.
  

The First 100 Days

Something to look forward to . . . something to measure President Obama by (God doesn't that just look wonderful?)

The First 100 Days (the Good Sheet)

Depicts the first 100 days of the modern presidents (starting with FDR)

A cartoon

from my sister-in-law.

A New Day is Here

Here on the pulse of this new day
You may have the grace to look up and out
And into your sister's eyes, into
Your brother's face, your country
And say simply
Very simply
With hope
Good morning

- Maya Angelou, January 20, 1993

I went to bed last night overwhelmed. My wife and I drank champagne and toasted our president-elect and dreamed of a better country for our children. We reveled in the moment, unable to comprehend what had taken place. We were both moved to tears on several occasions last night - I again felt tears of joy when I saw this editorial cartoon in today's Washington Post and after hearing the commentator Colbert I. King on WTOP News this morning talk about growing up in a capital city where he had to enter buildings by the back door and now the Obama family will move into the Executive Mansion through the front door.

"If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer . . .

We are, and always will be, the United States of America . . .

But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to. It belongs to you. It belongs to you . . .

This is your victory . . .

And I know you didn't do this just to win an election. And I know you didn't do it for me . . .

This is our moment . . .

This is our time, to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can."

- Barack Obama, November 4, 2008

When I awoke this morning, there was a sense that, "was it really true?" Had we elected a man to lead us in a new direction and get us believing in hope again? Yes, we did. Some of my readers have commented and questioned the validity of the two candidates in this race. My response is yes, neither of them are perfect, but we have elected the best person out there right now. Barack Obama is the real thing. He has to be.

The road ahead is long, the hill we must climb is steep. There is no perfect solution to the ills that are before us. Barack Obama was elected as an agent of change and he will do everything in his power, which with Democratic majorities in the House and Senate might be a great deal, to make this country a great nation again.

I had pestered a family member to vote, which she finally did. Prior to this she had not voted for President since Gerald Ford. I tried to explain to her that yes there were issues with the way this country votes, but we finally had a candidate that might actually be able to do something about the system. If not a first-term United States Senator, an African-American, and a Democrat who should cruise to election in the anti-Republican wave that was building all summer, then who? Change is coming and many of us will benefit.

She tried to tell me that her vote didn't matter - and yet her state has not yet been called. Don't tell me that every vote doesn't matter. If one person feels that way - there are others and that's how apathy gets out of control. She lives in a state where the black population is overjoyed at the idea of a black president, but this election was not about race. To a point. Yes, we have elected a black man, who defeated a white man, but first and foremost, we have elected a man who truly believes in the future of this country.

As President-elect Obama has said on many occasions, we are not a nation of red states and blue states, we are the United States. He will have to govern that way. He must surround himself with the right people (Rahm Emanuel is a good first pick) for the big tasks that lie ahead. He must be careful to avoid the pitfalls that befell Jimmy Carter in 1976, who arrived in Washington as an outsider and he and his advisors could not contain the Washington mentality.

President-elect Obama must also beware of lofty ideals that could derail some initiatives. He is given to high oratory. There is surely an international crisis out there waiting to test the new leader (Joe Biden wasn't wrong). But possibly the biggest danger may be the President-elect himself. Although he received a significant mandate (no Democrat had been elected with more than 50.1% of the vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976), winning traditionally Republican states and securing a large margin in the Electoral College, he is sure to face resistance from many sides. Change may be a good thing, but in general, people hate it. President-elect Obama will need to temper his enthusiasm to try and do too much, too fast.

One of my regular readers has left me comments with her criticisms of the current political climate and the lack of an acceptable candidate to her views. I grant her that our two party system is broken and that we are in need of real change in the way we elect our leaders and the party structure which we subscribe to. But as I said earlier, we have found someone who, first is willing to take this job right now, and two, was truly the best choice we had.

It is up to him to see if he can surround himself with the right people and truly lead this country in a new direction. Hope is alive, change is coming. Our wish and dream should be that Barack Obama can "Let America Be America Again." May God bless and protect our President-elect and continue to look over our country.

Let America be America again.
Let it be the dream it used to be.
Let it be the pioneer on the plain
Seeking a home where he himself is free.
(America never was America to me.)

Let America be the dream the dreamers dreamed -
Let it be that great strong land of love
Where never kings connive nor tyrants scheme
That any man be crushed by one above.
(It never was America to me.)

O, let my land be a land where Liberty
Is crowned with no false patriotic wreath,
But opportunity is real, and life is free,
Equality is in the air we breathe.
(There's never been equality for me,
Nor freedom in this "homeland of the free.")

Say, who are you that mumbles in the dark?
And who are you that draws your veil across the stars?

I am the poor white, fooled and pushed apart,
I am the Negro bearing slavery's scars.
I am the red man driven from the land,
I am the immigrant clutching the hope I seek -
And finding only the same old stupid plan
Of dog eat dog, of mighty crush the weak.

I am the young man, full of strength and hope,
Tangled in that ancient endless chain
Of profit, power, gain, of grab the land!
Of grab the gold! Of grab the ways of satisfying need!
Of work the men! Of take the pay!
Of owning everything for one's own greed!

I am the farmer, bondsman to the soil.
I am the worker sold to the machine.
I am the Negro, servant to you all.
I am the people, humble, hungry, mean -
Hungry yet today despite the dream.
Beaten yet today - O, Pioneers!
I am the man who never got ahead,
The poorest worker bartered through the years.

Yet I'm the one who dreamt our basic dream
In the Old World while still a serf of kings,
Who dreamt a dream so strong, so brave, so true,
That even yet its mighty daring sings
In every brick and stone, in every furrow turned
That's made America the land it has become.
O, I'm the man who sailed those early seas
In search of what I meant to be my home--
For I'm the one who left dark Ireland's shore,
And Poland's plain, and England's grassy lea,
And torn from Black Africa's strand I came
To build a "homeland of the free."
The free?

Who said the free? Not me?
Surely not me? The millions on relief today?
The millions shot down when we strike?
The millions who have nothing for our pay?
For all the dreams we've dreamed
And all the songs we've sung
And all the hopes we've held
And all the flags we've hung,
The millions who have nothing for our pay -
Except the dream that's almost dead today.

O, let America be America again -
The land that never has been yet -
And yet must be - the land where every man is free.
The land that's mine - the poor man's, Indian's, Negro's, ME -
Who made America,
Whose sweat and blood, whose faith and pain,
Whose hand at the foundry, whose plow in the rain,
Must bring back our mighty dream again.

Sure, call me any ugly name you choose -
The steel of freedom does not stain.
From those who live like leeches on the people's lives,
We must take back our land again,
America!

O, yes,
I say it plain,
America never was America to me,
And yet I swear this oath -
America will be!

Out of the rack and ruin of our gangster death,
The rape and rot of graft, and stealth, and lies,
We, the people, must redeem
The land, the mines, the plants, the rivers.
The mountains and the endless plain -
All, all the stretch of these great green states -
And make America again!

Let America be America Again
- Langston Hughes

Did You Take the Day Off?

A PROCLAMATION

WHEREAS The Fourth Day of November in the year 2008 represents the long-awaited resolution to the fiercely contested Presidential election.

WHEREAS By nature of Mr. Obama’s residency and its proud Democratic tradition, the great city of Chicago finds itself squarely at the center of attention on this momentous day.

WHEREAS No municipal or government body has shown the foresight or fortitude to state what needs to be stated.

NOW THEREFORE WE, Coudal Partners, do hereby proclaim that
NO WORK be done on NOVEMBER FOURTH

WHEREAS All employees are hereby required to report for work at the regularly appointed time and subsequently spend the morning hours unfettered by any assignment or memo, conversing with coworkers and furiously surfing political blogs for the latest information.

WHEREAS It would be nice if someone brought bagels.

WHEREAS Commencing at the hour of lunch, all employees will be set free from obligation, to leave the workplace and join friends and family at places of community and conviviality.

WHEREAS An exception will be made for those employees in “battleground states” with certain disagreeable political leanings who are required to arrive at work before the polls open and work until they have closed, without a lunch break and under constant supervision.

WHEREAS For everyone else in Chicago, we will see you at Grant Park. In all other American burgs, villages and hamlets, pretty much anywhere with a television is acceptable. Bowling alleys, rec rooms, firehouses and taverns are a few suggested venues.

WHEREAS Employers not obeying this proclamation are forewarned that they will find the day without productivity or profit and in the end only earn the ire of their tireless and devoted workers.

WHEREAS By the authority vested in us by us, all employees in the U.S.A. are encouraged to forward this proclamation to their supervisors and if there is some doubt about said supervisors agreeableness to follow the guidelines stated herein they are further advised, in the great tradition of American Democracy, to take matters into their own hands and sneak out the back door at lunchtime leaving this web page open on their computer as a statement of their whereabouts and intentions.

WHEREAS Employers are also advised to allow great leniency for late arrivals on the morning of the Fifth Day of November.

Signed and Stated by Coudal Partners, 31 October 2008

"Bob Rumsen's [John McCain's] Problem is He Can't Sell It!

Vote and Then Go Get Some Ice Cream

from Ben and Jerry's.

But no sprinkles for you if you don't do the right thing and vote for change.

Don't Listen to Me

Look at the pictures and decide for yourself. Please. Change is Coming. Be a Part of it.

Are They On to Something?

One could get very tired of polls and projections, punditry, etc. Well there is one group out there that has picked the winner in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections. Yep, the students of Weekly Reader. C'mon - do it for the kids.

So the Big Guy Wins, Right?

So says the New York Times. But everyone expected them to endorse Obama anyway . . .

537 Votes

That was the difference in Florida in 2000. So don't vote, it surely won't matter, will it?

See more funny videos and funny pictures at CollegeHumor.

It's Good Enough for Opie, Richie, Andy, and the Fonz

so it's good enough for me. Vote on November 4

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

When John McCain gets desparate

Wait, hasn't that happened already?

Finished Carving Your Pumpkins Yet?

Here are some ideas

I've got mine . . .

Humor from the Candidates

From the Al Smith dinner in New York last week:

First John McCain


Followed by Barack Obama

269-269

Don't say I didn't warn you. I have had this scenario in the back of my mind for some time now. But it's OK, because the Democrats win if it goes to the House. Probably.

Overtime? from DemConWatch.

But we're not going to worry about this, right?

I Like How He Thinks

from Daily Kos

I'm going to watch the debate now.

One of my favorites

This Kennedy commercial from 1960. It's not as good as the Sinatra one, but it's close.

Whither the Bellweather

People are quick to point out that Missouri has voted for the winning presidential candidate since like the dawn of time. But it would appear that Barack Obama is looking to redraw the map. Remember 270 is the magic number.

The Rothenberg Political Report looked at the Bellweather states.

The New Yorker Votes for Change

Won't you?

The New Yorker endorses Barack Obama.

Things I Try not to Think About

Most sports stars are Republicans . . . From Daniel Drezner (who got it from ESPN) by way of Marginal Revolution . . .

John McCain drew a record audience for his acceptance speech, and based on the distribution of viewers, part of what put him over the top was holdover viewers from the New York Giants/Washington Redskins game.

Could it be that Matt Yglesias is in the minority and that football-watchers are more likely to lean Republican? I don’t know — but that’s the best segue I can think of to link to Paula Lavigne’s fascinating ESPN.com article on which sports figures are backing which presidential candidates. The article is very long well-researched, but here are the tidbits I found interesting:

• Professional athletes and executives have given $445,334 to the two nominees — 55.8 percent to McCain and 44.2 percent to Obama, according to ESPN analysis of figures from the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group.
• The difference this election is that pro sports donors are more divided. In the past two presidential elections, the Democratic nominee has struggled to muster at most 16 percent of pro sports donations.
• Professional sports figures have given twice as much money to all presidential candidates combined during this election than they have to candidates in each of the past two races. And almost two months of fundraising remain for the two nominees.
• McCain has lots of friends in the dugout, but his biggest fans are in football. Six of McCain’s top 10 pro sports donors are with NFL teams, led by the San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans.
• NBA staff topped Obama’s list of pro sports donors at $24,360.
• [Rudy Giuliani] cashed in a total of $210,900 from pro sports donors, including $86,300 from NASCAR employees and drivers and $17,000 from his hometown New York Yankees.
  

Read the whole thing. And props to the athletes — their reasons for their various endorsements were very cogent.

Why Libertarians Should Vote for Obama

We live in a two-party country. Face it. Sure there are other parties and other candidates that will be on the ballot in November. But they are not going to win. It just doesn't happen here. And it won't happen any time soon. So here's an entreaty to Libertarians to not throw away their vote, and vote for Barack Obama for President.

From Marginal Revolution:

First, war. War is the antithesis of the libertarian philosophy of consent, voluntarism and trade. With every war in American history Leviathan has grown larger and our liberties have withered. War is the health of the state. And now, fulfilling the dreams of Big Brother, we are in a perpetual war.

A country cannot long combine unlimited government abroad and limited government at home. The Republican party has become the party of war and thus the party of unlimited government.

With war has come FEAR, magnified many times over by the governing party. Fear is pulling Americans into the arms of the state. If only we were better at resisting. Alas, we Americans say that we love liberty but we are fair-weather lovers. Liberty will flourish only with peace.

Have libertarians gained on other margins in the past eight years? Not at all. Under the Republicans we have been sailing due South-West on the Nolan Chart – fewer civil liberties and more government, including the largest new government program in a generation, the Medicare prescription drug plan, and the biggest nationalization since the Great Depression. Tax cuts, the summum bonum of Republican economic policy, are a sham. The only way to cut taxes is to cut spending and that has not happened.

The libertarian voice has not been listened to in Republican politics for a long time. The Republicans take the libertarian wing of the party for granted and with phony rhetoric and empty phrases have bought our support on the cheap. Thus - since voice has failed - it is time for exit. Remember that if a political party can count on you then you cannot count on it.

Exit is the right strategy because if there is any hope for reform it is by casting the Republicans out of power and into the wilderness where they may relearn virtue. Libertarians understand better than anyone that power corrupts. The Republican party illustrates. Lack of power is no guarantee of virtue but Republicans are a far better - more libertarian - party out-of-power than they are in power. When in the wilderness, Republicans turn naturally to a critique of power and they ratchet up libertarian rhetoric about free trade, free enterprise, abuse of government power and even the defense of civil liberties. We can hope that new leaders will arise in this libertarian milieu.

You Know You Want To

So please, don't make me beg. They are all doing the begging for me. Please, make sure you're registered and vote on November 4.

Saturday with the House

Pollsters are currently tracking nearly sixty seats in the House that are competitive. This will be an election like no other and there is a chance for the Democrats to improve their majority in the House to near veto-proof margins. Gut check prediction? Democrats pick up 10 seats

Here's a list of some races to watch from the site, ElectoralVote.com, which qualifies "hot races" as:

1. The incumbent won by 2% or less in 2006
2. The incumbent is in the other party's territory and did not win convincingly.

• AL-2 - open seat, retiring Republican - if the Democrats win this seat, which they very well might, it's going to be a very good night for the Democrats everywhere.
• AL-5 - open seat, retiring Democrat - this seat should go back to the Republicans. It will come down to whether voters like the guy with the first name Parker or the guy with the last name Parker. Really, you can't make this stuff up.
• AK-AL - Don Young vs. Ethan Berkowitz - Young squeaked by in his primary and most polls show him losing to Berkowitz. Dem Pickup
• AZ-1 - retiring Republican - the Republican is Rick Renzi, who is leaving under a cloud. Good chance for Dem pickup.
• AZ-5 - The incumbent Democrat won in a district where he shouldn't have. Expect a big fight.
• AZ-8 - Another Democratic incumbent in a Republican-leaning seat. Toss-up
• CA-4 - C'mon, the Democrat is Charlie Brown - can he really win?
• CA-11 - The Democrat won in 2006 against a scandal-plagued Congressman. The Republican mayor of the biggest city in the district has endorsed the Democrat. Is this a Democratic year or what?
• CO-4 - The Republican is not a nice woman. There I said it. And Colorado is going to go blue up and down the ticket. Dem pickup.
• CT-2 - Democratic incumbent should be able to hold on.
• CT-4 - Chris Shays is the last Republican in all of New England. After this election, there might not be any more.
• FL-13 - This race is still undecided from 2006. The same two are at it again.
• FL-15 - Retiring Republican - Republican district, but anything might happen
• FL-16 - This is Mark Foley's district, captured by the Dems in 2006. The Democratic incumbent is a Christian Conservative, so he might be able to hold on.
• FL-21 - Suddenly a horse race in a district held by a Republican ever since it was created. Both men are Cuban-American and it should be a fiery race.
  
• FL-24 - Republican incumbent who has a bit of the Abramoff stink on him. The Democratic challenger is getting a lot of help from the DCCC.
• GA-8 - Democrat in a Republican leaning district, so a good change for a Republican pickup
  
• GA-12 - Another Democrat incumbent in a state likely to go Red in the national picture.
• IL-8 - Democrats in Illinois should have an easy time, even in this Republican leaning district.
  
• IL-10 - A Republican incumbent in a Democratic district in a state that is going to be the bluest on the national map.
• IL-11 - Retiring Republican could lead to a Dem pickup.
  
• IN-2 - Another race where the incumbent will have the edge and thus a Democratic hold.
  
• IN-8 - A conservative Democrat, but a Democrat in a Republican leaning district should be good enough for the seat to stay in the blue column
  
• IN-9 - The fourth time the two candidates have faced off. This time the Democrat is the incumbent, but the district is Republican leaning and it could flip again.
  
• KS-2 - Incumbent Democrat who knocked off an entrenched Republican in 2006. He tried for the rematch, but lost the primary, which is good for the Democratic Congresswoman to hold the seat.
  
• LA-6 - Currently held by a Democrat, who has been in the seat only a few months, he may only have a few more months in the seat. Rep pickup
  
• MI-7 - Incumbent Republican who won in 2006 50 to 46, but outspent his opponent 25 to 1. Not the best return on one's investment. The DCCC and Chris Van Hollen has money to throw at this race and he might flip it. Dem pickup
  
• MI-9 - Republican incumbent who is older than John McCain and may see his Congressional career end here. Dem pickup
  
• MN-1 - Democratic incumbent in a slightly Republican leaning district. He should be able to hold it.
  
• MN-3 - open seat, retiring Republican - the retirement was unexpected and the Democrats have fielded a better candidate than the Republicans. A definite toss-up
• MS-1 - A Democrat in Mississippi? Hey it happened and he should be able to hold the seat for the blue guys.
  
• MO-6 - A Republican leaning district and a Republican incumbent, but this year anything could happen. But probably not here.
  
• NV-3 - If this state goes blue, the Republican incumbent is likely out the door also.
  
• NH-1 - another 2006 rematch, but the Democrat has the incumbency now and should be able to hold it in a state that is likely to go blue.
  
• NJ-3 - open seat, retiring Republican - another excellent chance for Dem pickup
  
• NJ-7 - open seat, retiring Republican - NJ-3 is more Democratic, but this one could flip, too
• NM-1 - open seat, retiring Republican - with NM trending blue and good Democrats up and down the slate, this seat should go blue. Dem pickup
  
• NY-13 - open seat, disgraced Republican (poor Vito Fosella). Dem pickup.
  
• NY-19 - This is the seat currently held by Orleans singer, John Hall. Is he Still the One?
• NY-20 - Democratic incumbent beat a popular Republican in 2006 and the power of incumbency should be enough.
  
• NY-24 - Democratic incumbent should be able to hold the seat
  
• NY-25 - open seat, retiring Republican - the Democrat tried this in 2006, with the incumbent out of the picture, he should get there this time. Dem pickup
  
• NY-26 - open seat, retiring Republican - little chance for a Dem pickup in this very conservative western NY district.
  
• NY-29 - Another rematch from 2006 with the Republican incumbent likely to stave off the Democrat again.
  
• NC-8 - Republican incumbent won in 2006 by less than 350 votes. This rematch has the DCCC behind the Democrat and he might pull it off this time. Dem pickup
  
• OH-1 - Republican incumbent should be safe, but in a Democratic year, it's still a toss-up
  
• OH-2 - A 2006 rematch, where the Republican incumbent won by less than 3000 votes.
  
• OH-15 - open seat, retiring Republican - the Democrat who nearly unseated the incumbent is running again, and this time she should pull it off. Dem pickup
  
• OH-16 - open seat, retiring Republican - considered a top tier race, and a toss-up
  
• OH-18 - incumbent Democrat in a Republican leaning district, should be a close race.
  
• OR-5 - open seat, retiring Democrat - should be held by the Democrat
  
• PA-4 - Democrat incumbent being challenged by the woman he beat two years ago.
  
• PA-6 - Republican incumbent in a Democratic leaning district, but a mediocre Democrat should keep the seat red.
  
• PA-10 - Democratic incumbent who won in 2006 when the Republican got caught in a scandal. The Republicans are pushing hard for this seat.
  
• TX-22 - Dem incumbent in Tom Delay's old seat. Best opportunity for a Rep pickup
  
• TX-23 - Dem incumbent trying to stave off a Republican in a Republican leaning district. The Democrat has the advantage of being Hispanic, which is the majority of his constituents.
  
• VA-11 - open seat, retiring Republican - this seat is likely to flip - Dem pickup
  
• WA-8 - Rep incumbent has a rematch with 2006 opponent in a Dem leaning district
  
• WI-8 - Dem incumbent who won in 2006 should be able to hold.
  

Jed Bartlet is my President

Couldn't he be? Please?

Maureen Dowd wonders . . . courtesy of Aaron Sorkin

BARACK OBAMA knocks on the front door of a 300-year-old New Hampshire farmhouse while his Secret Service detail waits in the driveway. The door opens and OBAMA is standing face to face with former President JED BARTLET.

BARTLET Senator.

OBAMA Mr. President.

BARTLET You seem startled.

OBAMA I didn’t expect you to answer the door yourself.

BARTLET I didn’t expect you to be getting beat by John McCain and a Lancôme rep who thinks “The Flintstones” was based on a true story, so let’s call it even.

OBAMA Yes, sir.

BARTLET Come on in.

BARTLET leads OBAMA into his study.

BARTLET That was a hell of a convention.

OBAMA Thank you, I was proud of it.

BARTLET I meant the Republicans. The Us versus Them-a-thon. As a Democrat I was surprised to learn that I don’t like small towns, God, people with jobs or America. I’ve been a little out of touch but is there a mandate that the vice president be skilled at field dressing a moose —

OBAMA Look —

BARTLET — and selling Air Force Two on eBay?

OBAMA Joke all you want, Mr. President, but it worked.

BARTLET Imagine my surprise. What can I do for you, kid?

OBAMA I’m interested in your advice.

BARTLET I can’t give it to you.

OBAMA Why not?

BARTLET I’m supporting McCain.

OBAMA Why?

BARTLET He’s promised to eradicate evil and that was always on my “to do” list.

OBAMA O.K. —

BARTLET And he’s surrounded himself, I think, with the best possible team to get us out of an economic crisis. Why, Sarah Palin just said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had “gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers.” Can you spot the error in that statement?

OBAMA Yes, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aren’t funded by taxpayers.

BARTLET Well, at least they are now. Kind of reminds you of the time Bush said that Social Security wasn’t a government program. He was only off by a little — Social Security is the largest government program.

OBAMA I appreciate your sense of humor, sir, but I really could use your advice.

BARTLET Well, it seems to me your problem is a lot like the problem I had twice.

OBAMA Which was?

BARTLET A huge number of Americans thought I thought I was superior to them.

OBAMA And?

BARTLET I was.

OBAMA I mean, how did you overcome that?

BARTLET I won’t lie to you, being fictional was a big advantage.

OBAMA What do you mean?

BARTLET I’m a fictional president. You’re dreaming right now, Senator.

OBAMA I’m asleep?

BARTLET Yes, and you’re losing a ton of white women.

OBAMA Yes, sir.

BARTLET I mean tons.

OBAMA I understand.

BARTLET I didn’t even think there were that many white women.

OBAMA I see the numbers, sir. What do they want from me?

BARTLET I’ve been married to a white woman for 40 years and I still don’t know what she wants from me.

OBAMA How did you do it?

BARTLET Well, I say I’m sorry a lot.

OBAMA I don’t mean your marriage, sir. I mean how did you get America on your side?

BARTLET There again, I didn’t have to be president of America, I just had to be president of the people who watched “The West Wing.”

OBAMA That would make it easier.

BARTLET You’d do very well on NBC. Thursday nights in the old “ER” time slot with “30 Rock” as your lead-in, you’d get seven, seven-five in the demo with a 20, 22 share — you’d be selling $450,000 minutes.

OBAMA What the hell does that mean?

BARTLET TV talk. I thought you’d be interested.

OBAMA I’m not. They pivoted off the argument that I was inexperienced to the criticism that I’m — wait for it — the Messiah, who, by the way, was a community organizer. When I speak I try to lead with inspiration and aptitude. How is that a liability?

BARTLET Because the idea of American exceptionalism doesn’t extend to Americans being exceptional. If you excelled academically and are able to casually use 690 SAT words then you might as well have the press shoot video of you giving the finger to the Statue of Liberty while the Dixie Chicks sing the University of the Taliban fight song. The people who want English to be the official language of the United States are uncomfortable with their leaders being fluent in it.

OBAMA You’re saying race doesn’t have anything to do with it?

BARTLET I wouldn’t go that far. Brains made me look arrogant but they make you look uppity. Plus, if you had a black daughter —

OBAMA I have two.

BARTLET — who was 17 and pregnant and unmarried and the father was a teenager hoping to launch a rap career with “Thug Life” inked across his chest, you’d come in fifth behind Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and a ficus.

OBAMA You’re not cheering me up.

BARTLET Is that what you came here for?

OBAMA No, but it wouldn’t kill you.

BARTLET Have you tried doing a two-hour special or a really good Christmas show?

OBAMA Sir —

BARTLET Hang on. Home run. Right here. Is there any chance you could get Michelle pregnant before the fall sweeps?

OBAMA The problem is we can’t appear angry. Bush called us the angry left. Did you see anyone in Denver who was angry?

BARTLET Well ... let me think. ...We went to war against the wrong country, Osama bin Laden just celebrated his seventh anniversary of not being caught either dead or alive, my family’s less safe than it was eight years ago, we’ve lost trillions of dollars, millions of jobs, thousands of lives and we lost an entire city due to bad weather. So, you know ... I’m a little angry.

OBAMA What would you do?

BARTLET GET ANGRIER! Call them liars, because that’s what they are. Sarah Palin didn’t say “thanks but no thanks” to the Bridge to Nowhere. She just said “Thanks.” You were raised by a single mother on food stamps — where does a guy with eight houses who was legacied into Annapolis get off calling you an elitist? And by the way, if you do nothing else, take that word back. Elite is a good word, it means well above average. I’d ask them what their problem is with excellence. While you’re at it, I want the word “patriot” back. McCain can say that the transcendent issue of our time is the spread of Islamic fanaticism or he can choose a running mate who doesn’t know the Bush doctrine from the Monroe Doctrine, but he can’t do both at the same time and call it patriotic. They have to lie — the truth isn’t their friend right now. Get angry. Mock them mercilessly; they’ve earned it. McCain decried agents of intolerance, then chose a running mate who had to ask if she was allowed to ban books from a public library. It’s not bad enough she thinks the planet Earth was created in six days 6,000 years ago complete with a man, a woman and a talking snake, she wants schools to teach the rest of our kids to deny geology, anthropology, archaeology and common sense too? It’s not bad enough she’s forcing her own daughter into a loveless marriage to a teenage hood, she wants the rest of us to guide our daughters in that direction too? It’s not enough that a woman shouldn’t have the right to choose, it should be the law of the land that she has to carry and deliver her rapist’s baby too? I don’t know whether or not Governor Palin has the tenacity of a pit bull, but I know for sure she’s got the qualifications of one. And you’re worried about seeming angry? You could eat their lunch, make them cry and tell their mamas about it and God himself would call it restrained. There are times when you are simply required to be impolite. There are times when condescension is called for!

OBAMA Good to get that off your chest?

BARTLET Am I keeping you from something?

OBAMA Well, it’s not as if I didn’t know all of that and it took you like 20 minutes to say.

BARTLET I know, I have a problem, but admitting it is the first step.

OBAMA What’s the second step?

BARTLET I don’t care.

OBAMA So what about hope? Chuck it for outrage and put-downs?

BARTLET No. You’re elite, you can do both. Four weeks ago you had the best week of your campaign, followed — granted, inexplicably — by the worst week of your campaign. And you’re still in a statistical dead heat. You’re a 47-year-old black man with a foreign-sounding name who went to Harvard and thinks devotion to your country and lapel pins aren’t the same thing and you’re in a statistical tie with a war hero and a Cinemax heroine. To these aged eyes, Senator, that’s what progress looks like. You guys got four debates. Get out of my house and go back to work.

OBAMA Wait, what is it you always used to say? When you hit a bump on the show and your people were down and frustrated? You’d give them a pep talk and then you’d always end it with something. What was it ...?

BARTLET “Break’s over.”

Sunday with the Senators

There is more good news for Democrats (really, where isn't there good news for the Democrats this year?) in the Senate races. As has been said all along, the Republicans are defending twice as many seats this year as the Democrats and they are poised to see their minority grow in the Upper House.

Here are the races to watch.

• Alaska - Who would have ever put this race on a watch list earlier this year? Senator Ted (R) is going down it would seem. Democratic pickup.
• Colorado - Senator Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge to leave after two terms. Two very strong candidates stepped in to run and the edge is going to the Democrats in the face of Rep. Mark Udall (D). Democratic pickup.
• Georgia - I really want this race to go the Democratic way. I despise Saxby Chambliss. Obama will need to have HUGE coattails for Jim Martin to beat Chambliss. This is my dream race. I pray for this one but for the moment it's a Republican hold.
• Louisiana - Senator Mary Landrieu (D) has been targeted although it looks like she will be safe. Democratic hold.
• Maine - Senator Susan Collins (R) is one of those moderate Republicans that Democrats like to pick on, although they are useful to the Democrats. She is facing a stiff challenge from Maine's Democratic Congressman, but she should survive. Then maybe the Democrats can get her to switch parties - as there is that Senator in Connecticut who needs to be taken out back and shot. Republican hold.
• Minnesota - It must be a Democratic year if Al Franken can make a serious run for the Senate. But let us remember this is a state that elected Jesse Ventura. I think Franken (D) can beat Coleman (R), but I am in the minority here. Toss up.
• Mississippi - Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D). Wicker is the Senator tapped to fill out the seat of Trent Lott, who resigned last year. Ronnie Musgrove is a popular former Governor. While Thad Cochran (R) will cruise to reelection in the other Senate race, I think Wicker may lose to Musgrove. Toss up.
• New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen (D) is a popular former Governor. She is taking on the incumbent John Sununu (R) and most polls indicate she's got him. Democratic pickup.
• New Mexico - When this race is over, there will be two Udalls in the United States Senate. Pete Domenici (R) is retiring due to illness and Congressman Tom Udall (Colorado Mark's cousin) is burying his Republican opponent. Democratic pickup.
• North Carolina - MoveOn.org has targeted this race and it looks like it is beginning to have an effect. Elizabeth Dole (R) is facing Kay Hagen (D), the State Treasurer. This race shouldn't be close, but Dole has been largely ineffective and she is on the ropes. For now it is a pure Toss up.
• Oregon - this is a mirror race to the one waged on the East Coast last cycle against Lincoln Chafee (R-RI). Senator Gordon Smith frequently flies under the radar and is a very moderate Republican Senator. The Democrats really want this, but I don't see it happening. Republican hold.
• Virginia - The Commonwealth is poised to send its second Democratic Senator, this time in the persona of former Governor Mark Warner. How much do you want to bet that some of the signs out there just say Warner, making some Virginia Republican voters they are voting for John (the retiring Senator) and not Mark? Democratic pickup.

So what does that make the numbers? If ALL the chips fall the right way, the Democrats hit the magic number of 60 (but that also means holding onto Lieberman, which Harry Reid may not want to do). Realistically, a prediction? Democrats 57 Republicans 43 (one independent, Sanders of VT with the Dems and Lieberman of CT with the Reps).

Presidential Polls Update

With the two Conventions in the rear view mirror - the sprint is on for the final two months. Unless you live in a swing state, you will likely be left alone. But this race is going to be close and it will come down to the wire. It is inconceivable that anyone can not vote in this election - the stakes are too high. But they will. And then there are of course the crazies who will vote and God help us from those people.

One the up side, there are no polls that show Obama losing the Electoral Vote. Every single one shows him ahead. Of the various polls that I look at, two of them have him with enough EVs to carry the election, that is he has more than 270. I will believe it when I see it on November 4 (although it is sure to be November 5 by the time we know). I also fear for a 269-269 tie, there are just too many mathematical calculations that make it possible. But again, that works for Obama, for the Democrats hold enough of the delegations in the House and the Senate to carry the day for him.

Here's a good site that aggregates several of the polls into one graph.

The popular vote is a different story. It is incredibly tight, and it may indeed come down to a case where Obama loses the popular vote but wins the election in the Electoral College. Yeah, like that ever happens - oh, wait.

Fasten your seat belts folks, it's going to be a very bumpy couple of weeks.

The Race to the Finish

I haven't forgotten about you. It is just there is so much information and sometimes it is a little disheartening. Over on my regular blog, I will shortly be posting about the incredible importance of this upcoming election. I will get some poll / prediction numbers here soon.

For now, in case you have been under a rock somewhere, it's Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin. And for the most part - the race is dead even. May God have mercy on us.

Barack and Roll

While we sit on the edge of our seats waiting for the announcement of Obama's running mate, here is something to amuse you.

Orrin Hatch For Kennedy

Sad news that Ted Kennedy will likely miss the Democratic Convention.

His friend in the Senate, Republican Orrin Hatch wrote a song for the Senior Senator from Massachusetts. It's a little melancholy. It may make an appearance at the convention, along with a video that is being produced to honor Kennedy.

Click to hear the song.

Here's some audio from Kennedy's 1980 speech to the convention, after he conceded the nomination to Jimmy Carter.

Do I Go to This Movie?

Or is it just going to make me mad?

W - the Movie, by Oliver Stone.

Really? You Sure It's Not Because We're Just Ready?

You're right. We may not be. Actor Dennis Haysbert has gone on the record to state that his role as President David Palmer in "24" may have paved the way for Barack Obama.

Really, Dennis? Because there had never been a black president portrayed on TV or in the movies before?

You Could Really Say that Bush Stinks!

I love the people of California. A question has qualified for the November ballot on whether or not to rename a sewage treatment plant for the 43rd President of the United States. Here's the story from CNN. Vote early, vote often people.

To the Left, Always to the Left, Never to the Right

Regardless of what happens in November, our next President will be left handed. In fact, since 1977 and the ascension of Gerald Ford to the presidency, the presidency has been held by a left hander with the exception of Jimmy Carter and the current occupant.

From Marginal Revolution:

Ford, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Gore, and now Obama and McCain are all left-handed. Call it chance or availability bias, but I'm still wondering. Read more here, and thanks to Martin Weil for the pointer. Here's one on-line discussion. Here is a brief survey on Wikipedia. It is my general view that left-handers have higher genetic variance in a number of dimensions, so they should be over-represented in many different kinds of extreme situations, including the Presidency.

It is a good day to be a lefty. Over on my regular blog, I have been detailing the Presidents. Perhaps I should make note of their "handedness."

The Democratic Race in Eight Minutes

following up on the "Democratic Race in Seven Minutes." Boy what a difference a minute makes.

Congratulations Donna Edwards

Donna Edwards handily won her seat in Congress on Tuesday. She had defeated Albert Wynn in a primary and in the definition of sour grapes, promptly resigned his seat. A special bill was signed by Governor O'Malley, to allow for this special election. Edwards will face off again against her same opponent in November, this time with the benefit of incumbency.

I've had her sign on my lawn since early this year. Go Donna!

And the ads of today

From my friend ADR's blog.

Ah, the ads of yore

There's a lot to talk about now that the long primary battle is over. I have a number of posts ready to queue up but let's start with a campaign commercial that you will likely never see again. It only aired briefly during the 1964 campaign and its creator, Tony Schwartz, died on June 14.

So You Want to Be President

Better brush up on your negative ads.

From McSweeneys

Equal Time: Who's the Republican VP

Some interesting choices here in this list.

The GOP Veep Sweepstakes

Somebody's Going to Be Sent to the Woodshed

Really, is anyone surprised? Well, alright, maybe if you are clueless to start with . . .

McClellan's tell all book rankles Bush White House

No. Really, He's Old

And here is an entire blog devoted to telling you who or what is younger than John McCain.

Some of the things from the blog:

1. FM Radio
2. Keith Richards
3. Superman
4. Mount Rushmore
5. Both of Barack Obama's parents (and they're dead now)
6. Bugs Bunny
7. 49 of the 50 US Governors (thanks Ruth Ann Minner - D, DE)
   
8. The Golden Gate Bridge
9. The TV Dinner
10. Scrabble
    

Because You Don't Care About Anyone But Yourself?

Why I Continue to Run - Hillary Rodham Clinton

Democratic VP Spot Open Thread

From the 2008 Democratic Convention blog.

Who Will Be the VP for Obama?

When Obama Wins . . .

click here for lots of options

The Democratic Race in Seven Minutes

and you know it hasn't been heaven . . .

While We Wait

Yes, it goes on. Pennsylvania did not end it as many of us hoped. It's on to Indiana and North Carolina.

And yes I know it's been a while. I'm just so tired of it all. I'll try to be better. Maybe there will be some live blogging during the conventions, at least the Democratic one is sure to be interesting.

While we (and Senator McCain) wait, here's a little reading on the current Oval Office Occupant, from Harper's Magazine.

George Bush is the Worst President Ever.

It's a Math Problem

Stop. Please. I don't care about the phone and whose there to pick it up. You people don't answer your own phones anyway. Stop. Yes, I understand that your husband wants back in. I like him (probably more than you do). You can make all the arguments you want. Sure, you've won the big states but those are states that would have voted for you anyway. My guy is winning in those states that normally vote red. He's winning traditional democratic voters. You're winning in states where Republicans are allowed to cross over and vote for you because they know you'll lose to Senator McCain.

Stop. Please. Did you not do well in math? You can't get there. Please don't reduce my party to rubble over superdelegates. All those people out there who are voting for my guy? They may not vote for you because you've been pretty nasty.

Stop. Please. Go back to the Senate. Be the Queen. We'll even make you the first woman Senate Majority Leader. Just, please, stop.

Go ahead, try any of them. You'll see. The numbers aren't there.

CNN Delegate Counter

Slate Delegate Calculator

MSNBC Primaries Sheet

Well that's one nominee

So we know who the Republican nominee will be. Hang on a sec, let me grab a forkful of crow here. I left John McCain for dead last year, along with most people. But McCain rose from the ashes of his own political campaign and snatched the nomination of his party away from those on the far right. And he pretty much did it without their help.

Today, McCain traveled back to Washington, where he met with President Bush. There is nothing more that brings joy to Democrats then to see the two of them arm in arm at the White House. The longer we can tag him as a Republican, the better. So it's a good thing that he is one, isn't it? Let's try and remember that, OK? Besides, he shouldn't be able to serve as president, right?

The next big thing will be to see who McCain picks as his running mate. Larry Sabato, who runs his "Crystal Ball" out at the University of Virginia, had a good article with McCain's choices.

As a Democrat, I am certainly troubled at the direction of my party. This race needs to be over and in my next post, I will go over that in a little more detail. But bottom line is, waiting is bad, because my party can't decide on a nominee and the other party has theirs and he gets to sit back and wait.

Quick Presidential Quiz Answers

So how'd you do? Here are the answers.

1) Who was the first President to be photographed?

• John Adams
  

2) Who didn't learn to read until he was 17?

• Andrew Johnson
  

3) Who built a swimming pool and a movie theater in the White House?

• Franklin Delano Roosevelt
  

4) Who was ambidextrous?

• James Garfield
  

5) Who was president for only 32 days?

• William Henry Harrison
  

6) Who ordered the White House's first bathtub?

• Franklin Pierce
  

7) Who had the White House's first telephone?

• Rutherford B. Hayes
  

8) Who held his wedding in the White House?

• Grover Cleveland
  

9) Who let his horse graze on the White House lawn?

• Zachary Taylor
  

10) Who gave his pet mockingbird free rein of the indoor air space?

• Thomas Jefferson
  

Quick Presidential Quiz

This was sent along by a friend. It's a basic quiz. I expect no missed answers. Answers next week. Let's see those answers in the comments, people.

1. Who was the first President to be photographed?
2. Who didn't learn to read until he was 17?
3. Who built a swimming pool and a movie theater in the White House?
4. Who was ambidextrous?
5. Who was president for only 32 days?
6. Who ordered the White House's first bathtub?
7. Who had the White House's first telephone?
8. Who held his wedding in the White House?
9. Who let his horse graze on the White House lawn?
10. Who gave his pet mockingbird free rein of the indoor air space?

Food For Thought

While you prepare for the next set of contests, here's a good article to read and then cry about.

"Ten Things that won't change (no matter who gets elected)"

We, as a people, don't like change. So why is it that every one of the candidates is screaming about change?

No more speed, I'm almost there . . .

I don't really have time for everything that I would like to do. I can't even begin to imagine what it is like to run for president. The commanding egos that it takes to put yourself out there every day and worry about what the other guys are saying about you, afraid you might say something that will wind up on YouTube moments after you utter it.

All that being said, I have woefully neglected The Political Point. I'll try to be better. The delegate count (courtesy of MSNBC News) will stay up there at the top of the column. You should be able to click on it to get full results from the voting that has taken place. Don't forget The Fix over there on the right, which has links to columnists and stories from the Washington Post. Below that is a list of other blogs and political sites that are a little more dedicated to digesting the information and getting it out to you, dear reader.

So by the way of quick recap, here is where things stand since I was here writing last.

• Mitt Romney realized his pockets actually did have bottoms and he "suspended" his campaign. He may have been spotted selling used cars in Waltham, Massachusetts. I, mean, really. Mitt. We've had slick, but you took the cake, and the pie, and the donuts . . .
  
• Mike Huckabee is really a nice guy who likes John McCain but would happily pound him into the ground and step over his broken body if it would get him the nomination. He is really working the double-edged sword, to see if the VP slot comes to him, playing coy.
• John McCain. Excuse me? Waitress? A serving of crow over here for the Brave Astronaut. I left the man for dead and he has arisen Phoenix-like to nearly secure the nomination. Everybody should go and read this again.

As it looks like McCain will be the nominee, the question is raising its head - who will be his veep? This is a very important question for a man who would be 72 on Inauguration Day. There is of course the "Huckabee Speculation," Governor Pawlenty, as mentioned in the article linked above, a friend who is a McCain supporter who has some inside information that Lindsay Graham is being seriously considered. Over on my regular blog, I have started a series of recapping the Presidents of the United States, which will end on Election Day. When you look at the first few presidents, several started out as Secretary of State. Vice President Rice, anyone?

On the Democratic side, John Edwards slunk away with his tail between his legs. His departure left me with the option of voting for Obama, which I did, in yesterday's "Potomac Primary." It was nice to vote in a primary, where things mattered. The general consensus is that Maryland hasn't been competitive since George Wallace visited Laurel, Maryland in 1972.

• Barack Obama is the man to beat. He stands alongside Hillary Clinton, WHO IS UNELECTABLE. Go watch this video and then come back. Go ahead. I'll wait. . . . Isn't that one of the best things you have ever seen? Change is good. Join with me. Get on the Obama train.
• Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. Wrote yourself a $5 million check. Shook up your staff. And what did it get you? Not much, you lost the delegate lead, the momentum, the schedule that favored you. Please, we're begging you. Go back to the Senate. Be Queen of the Senate. Get out of the way of history. Please.

I feel like I'm watching those Bugs Bunny cartoons with her. "I dare you to step over this line!" Each line is another primary or caucus. She has staked her campaign on winning Texas and Ohio. Hey, Hil? Give Rudy a call. Ask him how spending all his time in one state, gambling on winning it worked out for him.

Stay tuned, the wild ride is not yet over. Not by a longshot.

"A President Like My Father"

When the Kennedy family steps up, I listen. Granted, I remember Ted Kennedy's abortive attempt to unseat Jimmy Carter in 1980, but when the Lion of the Senate roars, it's time to sit up and take notice.

Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) has joined with his niece, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, in endorsing Barack Obama for President of the United States.

In yesterday's New York Times, Caroline, the child of John F. Kennedy, endorsed Obama in an op-ed piece, A President Like My Father.

Of the remaining candidates in the race, I have been leading toward John Edwards. I have long maintained that Hillary, while dominant, is unelectable. Obama is fresh, he's new, he represents change. But I still don't know if this country is ready to elect a black man. I will admit to being very impressed at the margin of victory in South Carolina.

For now, I'll go along and see what Super Duper Tuesday brings.

What About Mike Gravel?

So I guess I am not going to have a chance to vote for Mike Gravel in the MD Primary . . . there is no word from Mad Mike. His whereabouts are unknown. Saturday, the Democrats will complete the other part of the South Carolina Primary. At this moment, the remaining candidates are debating in Myrtle Beach.

I was getting a haircut today and on my left was an older white woman getting her hair cut by an African-American woman, probably in her late 20s-early 30s. I happened to overhear when they started talking politics. I was intrigued to hear that the older white woman was more inclined to vote for Hillary after she showed some emotion before the NH primary. The black woman was going to vote for her until that point. It was a little microcosm of the electorate that I found interesting.

I am still disappointed by John Edwards. If he can't win in South Carolina, there may be no future for him or a role at the convention for that matter. I also can't see him taking the number 2 spot again.

Here is how the delegate count looks for the Democrats among the four remaining candidates.

Needed to nominate: 2025
Total delegate votes: 4049

• Hillary Clinton - 236
• Barack Obama - 136
• John Edwards - 50
• Dennis Kucinich - 1
  

Mac is Back, The Hunt[er] is Over

Another weekend, another two Republican contests in the books. The Nevada Caucuses and the GOP South Carolina primary were this past Saturday. John McCain is continuing his "Lazarus-like" comeback, capturing a primary that eluded him eight years ago. The two events also knocked Duncan Hunter from the presidential sweepstakes (but what about the one delegate he won?).

I still can't believe that McCain can win. I have heard a lot of talk about getting him to commit to serving only one term. Like he would go on the record and aver that. We will see how things go in Florida this weekend and then on Tsunami Tuesday. Of course, Florida is shaping up as the last stand of Rudy Giuliani. He has had the state to himself for some time and if he doesn't win here, time to pack up the tents and head back into his 9/11 bunker.

According to the Washington Post here are the latest delegate counts.
Needed to nominate: 1191
Total delegates: 2380

• Mitt Romney - 59
• Mike Huckabee - 40
• John McCain - 36
• Fred Thompson - 5
• Ron Paul - 4
• Rudy Giuliani - 1

Three down, 47 to go

Iowa went first and then Tuesday, New Hampshire. The Wyoming Republicans snuck in there between the two. Here's how they went:

Iowa (Republicans):

1. Huckabee - 37%, 17 delegates
2. Romney - 25%, 12 delegates
3. McCain - 13%, 3 delegates
4. Thompson - 13%, 3 delegates
5. Paul - 10%, 2 delegates
6. Giuliani - 4%, 0 delegates
7. Hunter - 1%, 0 delegates

Iowa (Democrats)

1. Obama - 38%, 16 delegates
2. Edwards - 30%, 14 delegates
3. Clinton - 29%, 15 delegates

Wyoming (Republicans)

1. Romney - 67%, 8 delegates
2. Thompson - 25%, 3 delegates
3. Hunter - 8%, 1 delegate (OH, HE'S ON FIRE NOW!)

New Hampshire (Democrats)

1. Clinton - 39%, 9 delegates
2. Obama - 37%, 9 delegates
3. Edwards - 17%, 3 delegates
   

New Hampshire (Republicans)

1. McCain - 37%, 7 delegates
2. Romney - 32%, 4 delegates
3. Huckabee - 11%, 1 delegate

Now its on to Michigan then Nevada, and South Carolina.

If you need a primer on how the delegate selection process works, read this.

Can't he run again?

I was but five years old when George McGovern ran for president as a Democrat in 1972. He was, of course, crushed under the Nixon landslide. McGovern is 85 now and has outlived most of his political contemporaries. He has put the current president in his sights.

"Why I Believe Bush Must Go" - today's Washington Post

The sub-title of the editorial - "Nixon Was Bad. These Guys Are Worse."

I love being a Democrat.

Done With Hawkeyes, Off to Granites

For the Republicans - Huckabee vanquishes the Mormon and heads off to New Hampshire without much money or support. How big will the bounce be? Is it enough to stop the surging John McCain, who is fighting his last stand in the Granite State. Will New Hampshire make McCain the "new Comeback Kid?" We'll find out Tuesday. What is evident is that by Tuesday the Republicans should be down to a three man race. Sorry, Dr. Paul, your campaign is terminal. And if Romney comes in a distant third, you should be able to stick a fork in him, too. He'll be done.

A donkey is sort of like a horse right? For we have got ourselves a horse race for the Democrats. Obama's win was much more surprising than Huckabee's (Iowa voters think more like an evangelical Christian than a black man from the city) and it is bad news for the Clinton camp. Well, we have said it all along, she is unelectable. Finally, the voters are coming around to that. I would have liked Edwards to have done a little better, but he is managing. I don't know how long the three man (person) race can last, but it is certainly exciting.