Sunday, September 14, 2008

Sunday with the Senators

There is more good news for Democrats (really, where isn't there good news for the Democrats this year?) in the Senate races. As has been said all along, the Republicans are defending twice as many seats this year as the Democrats and they are poised to see their minority grow in the Upper House.

Here are the races to watch.
  • Alaska - Who would have ever put this race on a watch list earlier this year? Senator Ted (R) is going down it would seem. Democratic pickup.
  • Colorado - Senator Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge to leave after two terms. Two very strong candidates stepped in to run and the edge is going to the Democrats in the face of Rep. Mark Udall (D). Democratic pickup.
  • Georgia - I really want this race to go the Democratic way. I despise Saxby Chambliss. Obama will need to have HUGE coattails for Jim Martin to beat Chambliss. This is my dream race. I pray for this one but for the moment it's a Republican hold.
  • Louisiana - Senator Mary Landrieu (D) has been targeted although it looks like she will be safe. Democratic hold.
  • Maine - Senator Susan Collins (R) is one of those moderate Republicans that Democrats like to pick on, although they are useful to the Democrats. She is facing a stiff challenge from Maine's Democratic Congressman, but she should survive. Then maybe the Democrats can get her to switch parties - as there is that Senator in Connecticut who needs to be taken out back and shot. Republican hold.
  • Minnesota - It must be a Democratic year if Al Franken can make a serious run for the Senate. But let us remember this is a state that elected Jesse Ventura. I think Franken (D) can beat Coleman (R), but I am in the minority here. Toss up.
  • Mississippi - Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D). Wicker is the Senator tapped to fill out the seat of Trent Lott, who resigned last year. Ronnie Musgrove is a popular former Governor. While Thad Cochran (R) will cruise to reelection in the other Senate race, I think Wicker may lose to Musgrove. Toss up.
  • New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen (D) is a popular former Governor. She is taking on the incumbent John Sununu (R) and most polls indicate she's got him. Democratic pickup.
  • New Mexico - When this race is over, there will be two Udalls in the United States Senate. Pete Domenici (R) is retiring due to illness and Congressman Tom Udall (Colorado Mark's cousin) is burying his Republican opponent. Democratic pickup.
  • North Carolina - MoveOn.org has targeted this race and it looks like it is beginning to have an effect. Elizabeth Dole (R) is facing Kay Hagen (D), the State Treasurer. This race shouldn't be close, but Dole has been largely ineffective and she is on the ropes. For now it is a pure Toss up.
  • Oregon - this is a mirror race to the one waged on the East Coast last cycle against Lincoln Chafee (R-RI). Senator Gordon Smith frequently flies under the radar and is a very moderate Republican Senator. The Democrats really want this, but I don't see it happening. Republican hold.
  • Virginia - The Commonwealth is poised to send its second Democratic Senator, this time in the persona of former Governor Mark Warner. How much do you want to bet that some of the signs out there just say Warner, making some Virginia Republican voters they are voting for John (the retiring Senator) and not Mark? Democratic pickup.
So what does that make the numbers? If ALL the chips fall the right way, the Democrats hit the magic number of 60 (but that also means holding onto Lieberman, which Harry Reid may not want to do). Realistically, a prediction? Democrats 57 Republicans 43 (one independent, Sanders of VT with the Dems and Lieberman of CT with the Reps).

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