Hagel Hems and Haws

Chuck Hagel (R-NE) is mulling over a run for the presidency, something he has been thinking about for more than a year. He intends to make his plans public early in 2007, but the centrist Republican could shake up the party with a fight for the nomination.

Those Republicans from the right, clinging desperately to the shreds of the party of Goldwater and Reagan, are fearing the Republicans getting into the race (Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and now Hagel) would move the Republican party away from its base and into a new slot in the American political spectrum.

But will it work? Who knows?

Frist Opts Out

According to a statement on his website today, outgoing Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) is not running for president in 2008. It should be noted the statement is worded as such: "In the Bible, God tells us for everything there is a season, and for me, for now, this season of being an elected official has come to a close. I do not intend to run for president in 2008."

He does not intend? Not the most definitive of statements. But let's take the God-fearing doctor at his word shall we? Another Republican out of the pool.

Switchin' Senators?

With the Democrats in control of the Senate, there are Republicans who are being pushed off their committee chairs. Will the absence of power throw some close-to-the-line Republicans over the wall?

Three obvious suspects are Senators Arlen Specter (R-PA), Olympia Snowe (R-ME), and Susan Collins (R-ME). With the recent election results in those two states, these three could actually see their popularity rise were they to switch parties.

Of course, there is precedence here. Most recently, the switch of Jim Jeffords of Vermont from Republican to Independent (caucusing with the Democrats) gave the Democrats a one seat advantage in the Senate. Jeffords was lauded with all sorts of perks, including the retention of his "party" seniority.

What will 2007 bring?

Happy Birthday Senator Biden!

Today is Senator Joseph Biden's 64th birthday. He was on the Today show this morning and was asked about his presidential ambitions. He reiterated his plans to run and that he would form an exploratory committee soon and plan a formal announcement in 2007.

The man has run before and it didn't go well. He has skeletons in his closet with "plagiarism" banners hanging on their frame. And he's from Delaware. No offense intended to the small state, but can a senator from Delaware attain the highest office in the land?

The House Will Be In Order

Nancy Pelosi was selected by her colleagues today as the first female Speaker of the House today. She will take office with the new Congress in January, putting the liberal Californian third in line for the presidency.

Shortly after her election, her colleagues handed her her first defeat. Despite her announced support and active campaigning for John Murtha, Democrats selected Steny Hoyer to serve as Majority Leader.

Hoyer and Pelosi have had a frosty relationship and it will be interesting to see them work together over the next two years.

A Whole Lotta Trent!

Senate Republicans picked their new leaders today. As expected, Mitch McConnell (KS) was selected as Minority Leader. In a surprising vote, Senator Trent Lott (MS) returned to the leadership, defeating Lamar Alexander (TN) by one vote, to secure the position of Minority Whip.

Lott, you may recall, got himself in some hot water a few years back with some rather edgy words at a celebration of Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday celebration, where he referred to Thurmond's run for the presidency and said,"I want to say this about my state: When Strom Thurmond ran for president, we voted for him. We're proud of it. And if the rest of the country had followed our lead, we wouldn't have had all these problems over all these years, either." Oops.

Trent Lott has completed his rehabilitation and returns to the leadership once again. Love him or hate him, he was a good majority leader and knows how to navigate the rules of the Senate. He will do just fine as Minority Whip.

Senator Feingold Votes Nay

Russ Feingold (D-WI) has opted to stay out of the presidential contest in 2008, reports say. The Wisconsin maverick, a staunch anti-war Senator, would have brought a fresh perspective to the contest. With Feingold in the majority in the new Senate, he has opted to stay there and try to "undo much of the damage that one-party rule has done to America."

Feingold admitted his candidacy was a long shot, and he was leaning more against a run than for it. Like Mark Warner, who announced he would not be a candidate, both would make outstanding veep possibilities.

And Rudy Makes Three!

CNN is reporting that Rudy Giuliani has taken his first steps in a 2008 run for the presidency, filing papers to form an exploratory committee. This comes on the heels of John McCain's announcement that he is contemplating a run, but will not form his exploratory committee until early in 2007.

According to recent polls, Giuliani is popular among Republicans and independents who lean Republican. His moderate views make him both a good and bad candidate. The religious conservatives will take issue with his moderate views on gay rights and late-term abortions, but he could quickly emerge as a centrist candidate.

However, if Giuliani were to secure the nomination, and that is a HUGE if, a contest between Giuliani, a true New Yorker, and Hillary Clinton, a new New Yorker, could prove very interesting.

McCain Joins the Fray - Surprise!

On today's Meet the Press, John McCain (R-AZ) conceded to Tim Russert that he is planning / contemplating / thinking about a presidential run in 2008. He is certainly the front-runner for the nomination, but I still think he will fade in a strong field.

Remember this is a man who could not stop the George W. Bush bandwagon in 2000. Also, you can't read an article about McCain which does not contain the sentence, "If elected, McCain would be the oldest person ever inaugurated."

Senator McCain is a great American and would make an outstanding candidate and a great president. However, I can't help but think that his ship may have sailed.

The Senatorial Class of 2008

With the Democrats now in control of the Senate (and the House of Representatives) for the next two years, some are looking ahead (including me) to what Senators are up for reelection in 2008. If the Democrats play their cards right, they could look to increase their majority in the upper chamber. Democrats will be defending 12 seats, while the Republicans will be looking to hold 21 seats.

On the Democratic side:

• Mark Pryor (AR)
• Joe Biden (DE) - who is contemplating a run for the Presidency.
• Richard Durbin (IL)
• Tom Harkin (IA)
• Mary Landrieu (LA) - this may be the toughest seat to hold (Katrina-related), but Landrieu shows up on my short list for a VP nominee.
• John Kerry (MA) - one hopes the man who botches jokes and nearly loses elections for others decides to stay in the Senate.
• Carl Levin (MI)
• Max Baucus (MT) - will the new blue wind in Montana hold for Baucus?
• Frank Lautenberg (NJ) - he was lured out of retirement to run, will he sign on for another term? I would anticipate Kean making another play for this seat, could he pull it out this time?
• Jack Reed (RI)
• Tim Johnson (SD) - a squeaker victory in 2002, can he hold on again?
• Jay Rockefeller (WV) - still the junior senator from West Virginia, who turns 70 next year and has served West Virginia for 22 years.

For the Republicans:

• Jeff Sessions (AL)
• Ted Stevens (AK) - can he seriously run again?
• Wayne Allard (CO)
• Saxby Chambliss (GA) - he beat Max Cleland in an ugly race in 2002.
• Larry Craig (ID) - safe Republican
• Pat Roberts (KS)
• Mitch McConnell (KY) - poised to become Minority Leader in the new Senate.
• Susan Collins (ME) - will she still be a Republican in 2008?
• Norm Coleman (MN) - can the Republican anomaly be corrected in the home of liberalism?
• Thad Cochran (MS)
• Chuck Hagel (NE) - considered a possible candidate for the presidency in 2008.
• John Sununu (NH)
• Pete Domenici (NM)
• Elizabeth Dole (NC)
• James Inhofe (OK)
• Gordon Smith (OR)
• Lindsay Graham (SC)
• Lamar Alexander (TN)
• John Cornyn (TX)
• John Warner (VA) - retirement rumors are gathering around Warner, who turns 80 in February.
• Mike Enzi (WY)

Watch this space for updates on this and other 2008 news.

The 2008 Race Starts Today!

While the dust is still settling on the midterm elections, people are already shifting their focus to the Presidential contest in 2008. There are more than 30 candidates from the two parties expected to seek their respective party's nominations. As of today, there are only two "declared" candidates with their hats in the ring.

On the Republican side, Duncan Hunter, a long-time Congressman from California, announced during a campaign appearance that he was declaring to run for the Presidency in 2008. In what is expected to be a very long-shot candidacy, for the time being, he has the Republican stage to himself.

For the Democrats, outgoing Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, has long been mentioned as a contender in 2008. Today he announced he was filing papers with the Federal Election Commission to run for the Presidency. We have our first contenders people!

Predictions recap

So how'd we do with the predictions?

I said the Senate would be 52-48 Democrat. I expected (hoped) that either Tennessee or Arizona might fall to the Democrats, but alas, it was not to be. And now with Rummy heading into the sunset, there was concern about the Lieberman issue, but Bush has picked former CIA chief Bob Gates to head the Pentagon. So the Senate prediction - pretty good.

House of Representatives: 233 Democrats, 202 Republicans. There are still ten races yet to be decided in the House (including two seats where the incumbents face a runoff elections - Jefferson (D) in Louisiana and Bonilla (R) in Texas). The current count is 229 Democrats and 196 Republicans. The remaining ten races will likely go (another prediction here, I know) 3D, 7R. That would make the final count of the new House 232 Democrats and 203 Republicans. Not bad, only missed it by one and I might not have missed it if one of those races goes my way.

Governors. I said 29 Dem 21 GOP. That looks like I will be one off here as well. Tim Pawlenty has yet to be declared the winner in Minnesota but if he prevails it will be 28 Dems and 22 for the GOP. Where did I miss? Alaska. I really thought the known quantity of Tony Knowles would beat out newbie Sarah Palin. But that's the cold white north for ya.

How we doing?

At this time last night, most of us were settling in for a long night. I came home from the polls (where my precinct had nearly 50% turnout!) and tuned in to CNN. Immediately, the results started falling the democratic way. The Senate race in Ohio and Pennsylvania gave the Dems their first two pickups. Then Menendez held off Kean in New Jersey. Suddenly, the Senate was in reach.

Then the House races. Anne Northup in Kentucky, Ellsworth in Indiana and others. At about 11:00pm, CNN projected that the Democrats would win control of the House.

When I finally went to bed at 1:00am, the House seats were piling up on the blue side of the aisle. The Senate was down to three races, Missouri, Montana, and Virginia. By the time I arose (a few hours later), Claire McCaskill had vanquished Jim Talent in Missouri and the Senate was tied 49-49.

By lunchtime today (right around the time that Rummy was being shown the door), Montana fell to the Democrats. One down, one to go. And now, most wire services are reporting that Jim Webb has defeated George Allen and the Democrats have secured control of the Senate.

It's Election Day in the USA

Get out and Vote! Today is the day that we exercise our right to vote and ensure that we have a voice in the democratic process. If you choose to keep silent today, you forfeit your right to complain about the way things turn out tomorrow.

There are too many close races here in Maryland and Virginia, not to mention across the country, to stay home today. Raise your voice and cast your ballot. Do it now!

In Maryland and DC, polls are open until 8:00pm. Virginia's polls are open until 9:00.

Final Predictions

So here it comes. Will the Democratic wave be a tsunami or a little ripple? Depends on who you ask. Coming into the final forty-eight hours before the end of the 2006 election season, people are doing anything to avoid regular television so as to not see another political ad. But I personally, can't wait to get home Tuesday evening and watch the returns come in. While we wait for the votes to be counted, here are my final predictions:

The United States Senate: 52 Democrats (with two Independents, Lieberman and Sanders), 48 Republicans. Democrats pick up Republican seats in Montana (Goodbye, Senator Burns), Missouri (Later, Senator Talent), Ohio (Beat it, Senator DeWine), Pennsylvania (Farewell, Senator Santorum), and Virginia (Adios, Senator Allen). I am also predicting that either Tennessee or (hold on to your hat) Arizona falls the Democratic way. I have long believed that Harold Ford might pull this race out and I still think he can, but momentum is definitely in Corker's favor right now. In Arizona, Senator Kyl has been leading his race the entire time, but today a poll out in the Arizona Star has his opponent, Jon Pederson within the margin of error. If the wave is big enough, keep an eye out on Arizona. Democrats will successfully hold seats in Minnesota, Washington, Michigan, Maryland (but barely, and I am not convinced), and New Jersey (also by a razor thin margin, perhaps only by a few federal criminal investigators).

The House of Representatives: Paging Speaker Pelosi, Speaker Pelosi, please come to the floor of the House, thank you. It is clear that the Democrats are going to wrest control of the House away from Republicans, the only question remaining is how big the majority will be. My bet: Democrats 233, Republicans 202, a 31-seat majority. There are any number of races that could still go either way, but that's my number, a democratic majority of between 25 and 30 seats.

Governors: 29 Democrats, 21 Republicans. Hold your breath. I am not sure about Maryland.

Check back to see how I did.