Who Will Be Number 2?

A pause from the examination of who will top the respective party tickets. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is speculating on who might be a good choice to round out the tickets for the Republicans and the Democrats next year.

Sabato starts with what the VP choice should bring to the ticket:

• Disciplined, relatively scandal-free, and cause no major problems at selection time and throughout the campaign.
• Should be able to carry his or her home state. This is important especially if the choice is from a state that would go to the other party otherwise.
• They should complement those talents / experiences of the presidential nominee
• Help to (re)unite the party by being from another faction than the presidential candidate. Sorry, Joe Lieberman, don't wait for the phone to ring.
• If the presidential nominee is too far left or right, then the VP choice should be a centrist.
• A regional balance can be helpful, but it has not proved essential (Clinton/Gore).
• Symbolism - a woman, African-American, Hispanic/Latino, etc., could translate to voters and money
• Personal chemistry between the ticket-mates. Again, good, but not essential (Kennedy/Johnson).
• Finally, is he presidential?

Of course, as the article continues, the number 2 slot often goes to the person who comes in second in the delegate count. They are known quantities but with this field unlikely. Obama is a likely choice, if he can hold on to second. Same for Bill Richardson. Hillary would not be satisfied with number 2 and Edwards has already been there, done that. For the Republicans, Rudy's ego would disqualify him, McCain's age, and Romney brings nothing to the party except things people don't want.

Who Will be the Democratic Number 2?

• Sen. Evan Bayh of IN - Centrist Democrat who could put IN and OH in play simultaneously, good family and media image, broad executive and legislative experience, BUT cannot guarantee IN, not a strong public speaker, low-wattage personality.
• Gov. Phil Bredesen of TN - Executive experience at state and local levels, puts TN in play, moderate Southern/Border Democrat, personal wealth, BUT no foreign policy experience, bland personality.
• Sen. Bob Casey of PA - Moderate Democrat, giant-killer of Santorum in '06, guarantees PA.
• Gov. Jon Corzine of NJ - Executive and legislative experience, strong business credentials, personal wealth, BUT adds nothing electorally, perception that NJ=corruption and Corzine has had more than his personal share of it, another liberal Democrat from the Northeast.
• Gov. Mike Easley of NC - Executive experience, good match for northern liberal, puts NC in play, BUT dull persona, no foreign policy experience.
• Sen. Russ Feingold of WI - Broad legislative experience, strong netroots backing, highly intelligent, clean as a hound's tooth, BUT very liberal Democrat, twice divorced, something of a gadfly, unable to be controlled by nominee or, eventually, the White House.
• Sen. Amy Klobuchar of MN - Keeps MN in D column, woman, good counter-move to Pawlenty, some legislative and law enforcement experience, BUT MN already likely to be D, liberal record, minimal elected office experience, no foreign policy background.
• Sen. Mary Landrieu of LA - Centrist Southern Democrat, woman, may possibly be able to put LA in play, long legislative experience, could make Bush Katrina response a big issue, BUT by no means can she guarantee LA, much less any other electoral votes.
• Sen. Blanche Lincoln of AR - Moderate Democrat, Southern, woman, considerable legislative experience, puts AR in play, BUT AR not guaranteed, and not many electoral votes besides, bland persona.
• Gov. Joe Manchin of WV - Executive experience, moderate Democrat, puts WV in play, BUT WV is a tough sell nationally, no electoral votes outside WV guaranteed, no foreign policy experience.
• Gov. Janet Napolitano of AZ - Western executive, woman, puts AZ in play, BUT no national security experience, unknown nationally.
• Sen. Bill Nelson of FL - Only Democrat who can probably deliver FL and thus the White House, long legislative experience, moderate Southern D, BUT FL not guaranteed even with Nelson, not a strong persona.
• Sen. Mark Pryor of AR - Moderate Democrat, Southern, good political instincts, puts AR in play, BUT little foreign policy or executive experience, bland persona.
• Gov. Ed Rendell of PA - Strong executive experience at state and local levels, key state that GOP always targets, BUT relatively little national security background, PA ought to be Blue anyway.
• Gov. Bill Richardson of NM - He's got it all: The resume of the year, executive and legislative credentials, the only Governor with a credible foreign policy, Hispanic, Western, BUT are the personal womanizing rumors true? We don't know but Richardson has to deal with them so the nominee--if not Richardson--doesn't have to.
• Gov. Bill Ritter of CO - Western executive, puts CO in play, BUT relatively inexperienced, problems with labor unions, too.
• Sen. Ken Salazar of CO - Key Western state, probably puts CO in D column, Hispanic, BUT no foreign policy experience, relatively new, bland persona.
• Gov. Brian Schweitzer of MT - Executive experience, Western, ebullient personality, may put MT in play, BUT adds little electorally, no foreign policy experience.
• Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of KS - Executive experience, woman, Midwest, possibly could put KS in play, BUT unknown nationally, in deep Red territory that perhaps cannot be moved, no foreign policy experience.
• Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio - Executive and legislative experience, moderate Democrat used to running in rural areas, puts the key swing state of OH in play or more, BUT depends on achievements as Governor by '08, low voltage personality, little foreign policy experience.
• Ex-Gov. Mark Warner of VA - Successful executive and businessman, puts VA and WV in play, unusually energetic, personal wealth, BUT only one-term in office, no foreign policy experience.
• Sen. Jim Webb of VA - Moderate Democrat and former Reagan Republican, might put VA in play, giant-killer of George Allen in '06 that switched Senate to D column, netroots favorite, would pound away at Iraq, national security and military experience, BUT new to Senate and elective office, might be loose cannon, certainly impossible to control, doesn't guarantee VA.

Who Will Be the Republican Number 2?

• Gov. Haley Barbour of MS - Solid Southern conservative, sharp strategist, national reputation as ex-RNC Chair, understands the media, BUT adds nothing electorally, may be too conservative for country, has mission to complete in post-Katrina MS.
• Ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush - Strong record as Governor, critical swing state, 100 percent name ID, BUT his last name is tarnished for a generation.
• Sen. Susan Collins of ME - Moderate-liberal, woman with centrist appeal, could put ME into play, BUT social views would cause consternation among GOP conservatives.
• Sen. Elizabeth Dole of NC - Stellar "brand name" in GOP, solid conservative, woman, wouldn't be controversial, BUT adds little electorally, unexciting candidate.
• Sen. Lindsay Graham of SC - McCain favorite, some centrist appeal, long legislative experience, BUT adds nothing electorally, has irritated many conservatives yet totally pro-Iraq War, brings back Clinton impeachment issue.
• Sen. Chuck Hagel of NE - If Iraq is a total disaster, Hagel is a way for GOP nominee to separate himself from Bush, BUT adds nothing electorally, would split party, strong personality would overshadow presidential candidate.
• Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee of AR - Moderate conservative, long executive record, weight loss twist, BUT tax-cutting wing doesn't like him. Offers little or nothing electorally.
• Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of TX - Solid conservative except on abortion, woman, long political experience, appeal in South plus West, BUT adds little electorally. Only Texan who could be on the ticket in '08 (sorry, Rick Perry and John Cornyn), but is the Bush-whacked Lone Star State out of the running totally this time?
• Sen. Joe Lieberman of CT - Technically a Democrat-Fusion ticket, long Senate and foreign policy experience, hawk, could put CT in play, BUT his liberal views on economic and social issues would be anathema to GOP.
• Gov. Tim Pawlenty of MN - Conservative with a Midwest twist, executive experience, swing state, McCain favorite, BUT questionable whether he could carry MN after weak 2006 performance.
• Gov. Sonny Perdue of GA - Solid conservative, Southern base, executive experience, BUT perhaps too conservative for the country, adds nothing electorally.
• Gov. Jodi Rell of CT - Liberal on social issues, woman, puts her state in play, BUT so liberal a GOP convention walk-out might occur.
• Gov. Bob Riley of AL - Solid conservative, congressional and executive experience, BUT gains the GOP nothing electorally. No foreign policy experience.
• Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice - Black, female, impressive mind, 100 percent name ID, BUT Iraq, Iraq, Iraq: She owns it too. Bush III when almost no one wants that.
• Gov. Mark Sanford of SC - Solid Southern conservative, executive and legislative experience, 2000 McCain backer, BUT adds nothing electorally, mixed record in Palmetto State.
• Sen. Gordon Smith of OR - Centrist appeal, could make OR competitive, BUT too liberal for most in GOP, likely loss of his GOP Senate seat (up in 2008).
• Sen. Olympia Snowe of ME - Liberal who appeals to center, woman, long legislative experience, could put ME into play, BUT may be too liberal for most in GOP, possible convention walk-out.
• Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson of TN/Hollywood/DC - Solid conservative, McCain supporter--at least until he got the White House bug recently, Reaganesque, great on TV, BUT time may have passed, adds little electorally.
• Sen. David Vitter of LA - Endorsed Rudy, possible Southern VP for him, good media image, could crusade for Katrina relief--separating the ticket from Bush, BUT relatively unknown and inexperienced, adds nothing electorally, hasn't been vetted.
• Sen. George Voinovich of OH - Long executive and legislative experience, could be the only way for GOP to save the key swing state of Ohio, BUT nationally unknown, somewhat quirky in Senate.

Mayor Mike Makes Some Noise

Reports are circulating that New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg is thinking about running as an independent for President of the United States. Someone needs to sit him down to contact John Lindsay from the grave (or for that matter, his predecessor, Rudy Giuliani).

Could he do it? One of the reasons that Governor Tom Vilsack withdrew from the presidential race (and endorsed Hillary Clinton) was that he didn't have enough money to sustain his candidacy. Mayor Mike? Not a problem, as Bloomberg currently sits at No. 142 on the Forbes list of the worlds richest people and is reportedly worth at least $5.5 billion. He is also not afraid to spend his money. In his recent reelection bid for Mayor, he spent $85 million against an opponent that was not likely to win anyway.

Who would he appeal to? Bloomberg used to be a Democrat, turning Republican late in life (perhaps it was all that money). So he could draw support from both parties to an independent candidacy.

What about those other people? The two main parties have the process locked up and third party candidacies very rarely get anywhere (see: Ralph Nader, Ross Perot). Bloomberg is publicly silent on the issue, but the idea is coming out from Bloomberg's media empire that he is considering it.

Unity08 was founded to help the "center" gain a voice and is planning to hold a "unity" primary to nominate a bipartisan ticket for the White House. The group was founded by several heavy hitters, including Hamilton Jordan, who served as President Jimmy Carter's Chief of Staff.

The question remains, one that Bloomberg himself is asking, can a "5-foot-7, divorced billionaire Jew running as an independent from New York possibly have a chance?"

For 2008, as we have already seen . . . All bets are off.

But I Brought a Note from My Campaign Manager

There is a new report out that recounts the votes missed by current members of Congress. Pundits have taken note of the presidential contenders who have missed votes. Please disregard the person at the top of the list, Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), he's been a little busy not dying.

Herewith is the list of senators who have missed votes and are also seeking their party's nomination for president.

• Sam Brownback (R-KS) - 22 votes missed (42.3%)
• Joseph Biden (D-DE) - 12 votes missed (23.1%)
• Chuck Hagel (R-NE) - 9 votes missed (17.3%)
• Christopher Dodd (D-CT) - 8 votes missed (15.4%)
• John McCain (R-AZ) - 5 votes missed (9.6%)
• Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 2 votes missed (3.8%)
• Barack Obama (D-IL) - 0 votes missed!

Vilsack Gets Sacked

Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack has withdrawn from the 2008 Presidential Race, a mere 15 weeks after getting into it. Vilsack announced the day after the 2006 midterm elections and brought the best "emotional" story to the race. However, he was always viewed as a underdog, despite an impressive resume and most importantly, executive experience. As most pundits will tell you there is a reason the past four of five presidents have been governors.

Vilsack's withdrawal could be good for Bill Richardson of New Mexico, one of the few other governors in the race and also an impressive resume. I believe Richardson will do well if he can survive the front runner shuffle being conducted by the Senator from Illinois and the Senator from New York.

Stay tuned. There's still a long way to go and lots more time for people to stumble.

President John McCain?

The current issue of Washingtonian Magazine (February 2007) has a fictional article in it on how John McCain becomes president in 2008. It was a fascinating read with some interesting factual stingers, most notably how Joe Biden can't seem to keep his foot out of his mouth (articulate, indeed!).

The article describes how the Democrats go into their convention deadlocked with John Edwards, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton all with large numbers of delegates but not enough to capture the nomination. Clinton finally releases her delegates to Edwards after securing a promise that he will pick Obama as his running mate. Clinton returns to the Senate and a place in history.

McCain has wrested the nomination away from Rudy Giuliani and asked Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty to run as his vice president. The general election race is on. On October 31, a terrorist attack strikes in St. Louis and it reminds the nation that Edwards and Obama may not be ready. McCain wins the election a week later.

The article uses actual statements from McCain and weaves an impressive story and goes to show how entertaining the next two years are going to be. But I still think that McCain will not be the Republican nominee, regardless of what happens.

Only 648 Days Until the Election!

The title of this blog comes from the cover of Time Magazine's February 5, 2007 issue. The issue is full of stories about the extraordinary presidential race already underway. It reminds us this is the first election since 1928 that no incumbent President or Vice President is on a primary ballot. It points out that we might conceivably elect the first woman, the first African American, the first Latino, or the first Mormon.

The magazine also announces the creation of the Time Election Index, which will be periodically updated as the candidates popularity ebb and flow over the election season. The index plots a candidates support among voters against how much they presume to know about the candidate. The index currently puts the front runners as Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats.

Speaking of Clinton, she campaigned in Iowa this weekend and performed admirably. It marks the first time a Clinton has campaigned in the Midwest battleground in some time. Bill Clinton wrote off Iowa in 1992 and did not campaign there as an incumbent in 1996.

The issue also points out the 8 Keys to the Campaign:

• How the Iraq War Scrambles Party Lines - where else do Chuck Hagel and Joe Biden agree?
• Raising Cash - Clinton's announcement to forgo public financing puts the bar out of sight of most, meaning that candidates will need to raise about $2 million a week to remain competitive through the campaign.
• The Religion Question - Are we ready for a Mormon? Do we need another conservative Christian? What of the Republicans who don't espouse the typical religious beliefs of the party? Which Democrat will stop ducking the gay marriage question?
• Read All About It! - At least half of the candidates out there have best sellers.
• What About That Guy? - Both Al Gore and Newt Gingrich are waiting in the wings to see what happens. Newt reminds us all that John Kennedy waited until January 1960 before announcing his candidacy for president.
• The men behind the curtains - Political talent is being snapped up left and right. Will there be anyone left? Are the operatives hooking their carts to the right horse?
• The Blogosphere - There are a lot of us out there and many of the candidates do their own blogging. Howard Dean showed us the power of the Internet and it will only become more powerful in the next two years.
• Wait, don't tell me. That's, um, you know, that Senator . . . - Three House members, a bunch of Senators, several Governors. Can't tell the players without a scorecard. Get yer programs here!

It's going to be a long season / campaign / year. Hold on tight!

January - A Busy Month!

It's only January 22, and we have had a flurry of candidates getting into the race. Storming into the race and out in front are the two Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Over the weekend, Senator Sam Brownback announced his candidacy. Governor Bill Richardson takes aim at the Hispanic vote by announcing the formation of his exploratory committee.

A news report tonight on the Jim Lehrer News Hour contained a quote that candidates will need to raise nearly $2 million a week over the next year to stay viable. It is the first time since 1928 there is no sitting president or vice president in the field, hence the plethora of candidates.

It is still too soon to tell who the nominee will be and whether it will even be one of the current candidates or a dark horse not yet being discussed.

Democrats in:

• Joe Biden (Sen.-DE) - announced he is running but no formal candidacy announcement yet.
• Hillary Rodham Clinton (Sen.-NY) - announced her candidacy on the Internet, realizing the power of that medium. But can she win?
• Christopher Dodd (Sen.-CT) - announced candidate with little appeal outside of his native Connecticut. Could be a good veep for a candidate outside the Northeast, like . . .
• John Edwards (former Sen.-NC) - the former VP candidate in 2004 has remade himself as a populist and as the "Anti-Hillary." It could work to his advantage.
• Mike Gravel (former Sen.-VA) - who? Gravel represented Alaska in the House and was front and center during the Watergate issues. Since relocating to Virginia, he is largely unnoticed in the field.
• Dennis Kucinich (Rep.-OH) - A candidate in 2004, he believes the Democrats are not advancing the anti-Iraq agenda enough. Not likely to be a contender.
• Barack Obama (Sen.-IL) - filed his paperwork for his committee this month and will announce in February. Can he stop the Hillary onslaught?
• Bill Richardson (Gov.-NM) - a candidate I firmly believe can win the presidency.
• Tom Vilsack (former Gov.-IA) - restricted by term limits, he announced his candidacy the day after Election Day 2006. Could be a VP candidate.

Republicans in:

• Sam Brownback (Sen.-KS) - the choice of conservative candidates, he could keep the Republicans to the right.
• Jim Gilmore (former Gov.-VA) - no, really. Jim Gilmore? for President?
• Rudy Giuliani (former Mayor-NYC) - the 9/11 icon could make the Republicans worry about the message he brings to the party.
• Duncan Hunter (Rep.-CA) - a House Member with one issue to run on, the military.
• John McCain (Sen.-AZ) - the front runner, if he runs.
• Mitt Romney (former Gov.-MA) - sometimes conservative, sometimes liberal, Mitt is an enigma, and that's dangerous.
• Tom Tancredo (Rep.-CO) - another House member with one issue, but this one is immigration. He won't go quietly.
• Tommy Thompson (former Gov.-WI) - also a former member of the Bush Cabinet, he may show up on VP short lists, but that's about all.

Representative Tancredo slips in under the radar

Representative Tom Tancredo (R-CO) has filed papers to form a presidential exploratory committee. It was not an unexpected move, but Tancredo is another longshot for the nomination. He joins another House member, Duncan Hunter (R-CA) in the race for the Republican nomination.

As I said when Hunter got in the race, the last House member to go to the Presidency was James Garfield in 1880. With the star power on the Republican side (Giuliani, McCain), Hunter and Tancredo can only hope to get their issues out there and keep the Republicans on message.

Iowa and New Hampshire are but a year away!

Senator Dodd for President

Christopher Dodd, the senior Senator from Connecticut has decided to run for president. Okay, but why is the next question. He flirted with the idea in 2004 and now thinks the time has come for him to "get out of the bleachers and play on the floor." Too bad that his pickup game is going to be a little short from the other players on the floor.

But I wish him luck. Dodd is a good Northeast liberal. And we all know how successful they are in winning the presidency. What does he have going for him? A prominent father who was also a Senator from Connecticut. Remind you of anyone else?

Good luck, Chris. I like you but I don't see you making it past Super Tuesday.

The 110th Congress Convenes

History was made today, when the 110th Congress of the United States convened. Members of the House of Representatives elected Nancy Pelosi of California to serve as Speaker of the House. She becomes the first woman ever to hold that position.

The leadership of the House was also announced on the floor:

• Majority Leader - Steny Hoyer (MD)
• Majority Whip - James Clyburn (SC)
• Minority Leader - John Boehner (OH)
• Minority Whip - Roy Blunt (MO)

Over on the Senate side, the new Senators were sworn in by Vice President Cheney.

A new day dawned in American politics as the Democrats took control of the entire Congress for the first time in 12 years. Let's hope they can pull it off, or it is likely to be a short majority.

Mitt Romney Joins the Field

After the nation bade farewell to the 38th President, Gerald Ford, outgoing Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney announced the formation of an exploratory committee in preparation for a run for the Republican nomination for President in 2008.

This has been expected for some time and he joins a field still looking for a front runner. John McCain is still considered the front runner, but, while exploring a run, I continue to maintain that he will ultimately decide not to run.

Romney's religion may be a hurdle for him and he is not well liked by the conservative wing of the party. However, he has proved a good administrator in Massachusetts. Romney also has a good political pedigree. His father was George Romney, Republican Governor of Illinois and unsuccessful presidential candidate in 1968. Romney joins several others in the Republican party: who have already declared their candidacies or have formed exploratory committees:

• Senator Sam Brownback (KS)
• Rudy Giuliani
• Congressman Duncan Hunter (CA)
• Senator John McCain (AZ)
• Secretary Tommy Thompson

An End of the Year Recap - Democrats

Here is a year-end look at who is in and out for the Democratic nomination for the presidency:

IN:

• Dennis Kucinich - the Ohio Congressman has jumped into the race yet again. He believes the Democrats are not being anti-war enough for his tastes.
• Tom Vilsack - the popular governor of Iowa (home of the first caucuses) has declared and is off and running. Enjoy the attention now, for it won't last.

EXPLORING:

• Joe Biden - the Delaware Senator has done this before. He should know better. It won't work this time either.
• John Edwards - his website announced his candidacy before he did. A clear party favorite, can he make people forget that he was John Kerry's running mate in 2004?
• Bill Richardson - the New Mexico governor would be the first Hispanic candidate. From a red state, he could certainly make the Democrats sit up and take notice.

RUMORS:

• Wesley Clark - a contender in 2004, he brings military gravitas to the party. Can he get his message out now?
• Hillary Clinton - I like her. She's a fine Senator. But please, stay there. Make a career in the Senate. You could be the first woman Majority Leader. Please?
• Christopher Dodd - the Connecticut Senator is making noise. For now, that's all it is.
• Al Gore - he says he's not running. If he does, he can always say that he one in 2000 and he is just trying to get back in the front door.
• John Kerry - he will turn 65 in 2008, he will be up for reelection. Will someone whisper in his ear to go away?
• Barack Obama - he's well spoken, he's good looking, he's African-American, he's young, and he's inexperienced. By all means, let's call him the front runner.

OUT:

• Evan Bayh - the Senator from Indiana formed an exploratory committee and then declared he would not be a candidate. Too bad. He could have been a serious contender.
• Tom Daschle - the former South Dakota Senator should think about running to return to the Senate if Tim Johnson decides to retire after his health scare.
• Howard Dean - the screamer has done a good job as DNC Chair. He wants to keep that job and help elect the next president, which he says will not be him.
• Russ Feingold - the Wisconsin Senator announced he would enjoy being in the majority and work for the people from the Senate and not on the presidential campaign trail.
• Mark Warner - the former Virginia governor said his family asked him not to run. Again, a candidate from a red state, with deep pockets, he could have been a serious contender. An excellent VP choice.

An End of the Year Recap - Republicans

Here is a year-end look at who is in and out for the Republican nomination for the presidency:

IN:

• Rudy Giuliani - the major contender Republican candidate is in the race right now and he's getting all the press and the attention. But does he have the stamina?
• Duncan Hunter - the Congressman from California announced he would run while running for reelection to the House. Last House member to win the presidency? James Garfield in 1880.

EXPLORING:

• Sam Brownback - now in the minority, the Kansas Senator is making noise about running a very conservative campaign.
• Jim Gilmore - the former Virginia governor is a conservative favorite and a definite long-shot.
• John McCain - the undeclared front runner. However, I still don't see him running. He will be 72 in 2008, which, if he's elected, would make him the oldest person elected president.
• Mitt Romney - the outgoing Massachusetts governor is expected to join the race in early 2007.
• Tommy Thompson - the former Wisconsin Governor and Cabinet Secretary has formed an exploratory committee. Will he find anything or anyone to care?

RUMORS:

• Jeb Bush - Still the wild card, term limited, Bush won't be able to run again as governor of Florida. Will he seek to continue the Bush dynasty?
• Newt Gingrich - the former Speaker has said he will wait until Labor Day 2007 to make a decision. If there is no consensus candidate or the issues he believes in are not being addressed, he will get in. He can be a serious contender. My dark horse.
• Chuck Hagel - the moderate senator from Nebraska has been rumored to want the higher office. But can he reach back to the base?
• Mike Huckabee - the outgoing Arkansas Governor. Can Arkansas produce another President?
• George Pataki - The outgoing New York governor has presidential ambitions but will likely make a better veep candidate.
• Condoleezza Rice - A popular draft candidate, she may instead run for senate in California in 2006, especially if Diane Feinstein retires.

OUT:

• George Allen - he will spend the next two years wondering how he lost his Senate reelection.
• Haley Barbour - the Mississippi Governor and former RNC Chair got a lot of press after Katrina, but has said he is not running.
• Bill Frist - the outgoing Majority Leader is going home to Tennessee and is "retiring" from public service.
• Rick Santorum - see George Allen, but in Pennsylvania.

Brownback Goes Forth and a Republican Scorecard

Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS) has announced the formation of an exploratory committee for a presidential run. Brownback has made clear that he will focus on social conservative issues, and is clearly the most conservative Republican to join the field. He is the fifth Republican to make plans to seek the presidency.

For those keeping score:

• Senator John McCain (AZ) - exploratory committee
• former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani - exploratory committee
• Rep. Duncan Hunter (CA) - exploratory committee
• Governor Mitt Romney (MA) - expected to join race in early 2007
• Governor Mike Huckabee (AZ) - on radar screens
• Senator Chuck Hagel (NE) - on radar screens
• former Speaker Newt Gingrich (GA) - on radar screens
• Governor George Pataki - longshot
• Secretary (and former Governor) Tommy Thompson - longshot
• Senator Bill Frist (TN) - NO
• Senator George Allen - NO
• Senator Rick Santorum - NO

Bayh Says Aye

While former Senator Tom Daschle (D-SD) retreats to the sidelines, announcing he will not run for the presidency in 2008, the "Republicrat" from Indiana has announced plans to seek the top job. Evan Bayh, son of Birch, has announced plans to form an exploratory committee and make a candidacy announcement early in the new year.

I applaud this move. I have been telling anyone who will listen that the Democrats will not win back the White House with another Northeastern liberal. Take a look at the two last Democratic presidents - Arkansas and Georgia. The successful candidate will come from a red state with a proven record of winning. Bayh has served as both Governor of Indiana and as its Senator.

I grew up in the Northeast. But I like winning, too. Today, Evan's my guy.

Hagel Hems and Haws

Chuck Hagel (R-NE) is mulling over a run for the presidency, something he has been thinking about for more than a year. He intends to make his plans public early in 2007, but the centrist Republican could shake up the party with a fight for the nomination.

Those Republicans from the right, clinging desperately to the shreds of the party of Goldwater and Reagan, are fearing the Republicans getting into the race (Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and now Hagel) would move the Republican party away from its base and into a new slot in the American political spectrum.

But will it work? Who knows?

Frist Opts Out

According to a statement on his website today, outgoing Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) is not running for president in 2008. It should be noted the statement is worded as such: "In the Bible, God tells us for everything there is a season, and for me, for now, this season of being an elected official has come to a close. I do not intend to run for president in 2008."

He does not intend? Not the most definitive of statements. But let's take the God-fearing doctor at his word shall we? Another Republican out of the pool.

Switchin' Senators?

With the Democrats in control of the Senate, there are Republicans who are being pushed off their committee chairs. Will the absence of power throw some close-to-the-line Republicans over the wall?

Three obvious suspects are Senators Arlen Specter (R-PA), Olympia Snowe (R-ME), and Susan Collins (R-ME). With the recent election results in those two states, these three could actually see their popularity rise were they to switch parties.

Of course, there is precedence here. Most recently, the switch of Jim Jeffords of Vermont from Republican to Independent (caucusing with the Democrats) gave the Democrats a one seat advantage in the Senate. Jeffords was lauded with all sorts of perks, including the retention of his "party" seniority.

What will 2007 bring?