The two 2009 races are in Virginia and New Jersey. In the Garden State, it appears that Jon Corzine might be toast. Lord knows he has plenty of money to throw at this race, but one might want to get used to saying Governor Chris Christie. Christie is a United States Attorney and is benefiting from a bad economy that is pulling Corzine's numbers below a salvageable level.
In the Commonwealth of Virginia, the selection of Creigh Deeds as the nominee for the Democrats has made the race a tossup. Deeds was the most unknown of the candidates in the democratic field. Bob McDonnell on the Republican side had no opposition and the race will very likely come down to the wire.
As to the 2010 races, here's the current thinking.
Switching Parties
- California - Schwarzenegger (R) is term limited and a Democratic victory is expected.
- Florida - Crist (R) is running for the Senate and the Governor's Mansion in Tallahassee is likely to be redecorated in blue.
- Kansas - When Kathleen Sebelius (D) relocated to Washington, her Lt. Gov. stepped up. But he doesn't want the job. This one goes to the Republicans
- Hawaii - Linda Lingle (R) is term limited and the state is too democratic for a Republican to win.
- Oklahoma - Brad Henry (D) is out and it is surprising a Democrat made it two terms there.
- Rhode Island - See above, but substitute Don Carcieri (R) for Linda Lingle.
- Tennessee - Phil Bredesen (D) is popular, but not enough to save the governorship for his party.
- Wyoming - See Oklahoma. Dave Freudenthal (D) is term-limited.
- Arizona - When Janet Napolitano came to Washington, she left the state in the care of someone certifiable. It's unclear whether the Republican Brewer can be shoved aside.
- Minnesota - Tim Pawlenty (R) wants to be President. Then he shouldn't be from Minnesota.
- Michigan - Jennifer Granholm (D) is out and the scramble has not produced a clear favorite yet.
- Nevada - Governor Gibbons (R) is in a tough fight.
- Pennsylvania - Ed Rendell is leaving office and though the attention will be on the Senate race, this should be a doozy.
- Georgia - I suppose there is something to be said for a narrow Republican advantage in Georgia, but in the lack of a stronger Democratic candidate, the statehouse stays red.
- Ohio - The bellweather state has a good governor in Ted Strickland (D), and he should be able to hold on to the statehouse.
- Vermont - Jim Douglas (R) is running again and despite the Green Mountain's state blue trend, he should be able to pull it off.
- Wisconsin - Jim Doyle (D) recently announced he would not run for reelection, but the state should be able to produce a new Democratic governor.
- Alabama - Bob Riley (R) is leaving the office, but (to quote "My Cousin Vinny") "Its Ala f***ing Bama.")
- Connecticut - In the Governor's race, anyway, Jodi Rell (R) is clear favorite
- Illinois - With Blago now a memory, Pat Quinn is doing a fine job and should get the job outright.
- Iowa - Chet Culver (D) is a lock (for now)
- Massachusetts - Deval Patrick (BFF of the President) should cruise to reelection
- New Mexico - If I lived there, I'd be voting for Val Kilmer - wouldn't that be cool?
- New York - Paterson (D) may be in trouble from Andrew Cuomo, but either way, the Governor should be a Democrat.
- South Carolina - surprisingly Mark Sanford is nearly out of a job (if that doesn't happen sooner than the election), and if he keeps talking, this race could become competitive.
- South Dakota - Mike Rounds (R) is term limited but it won't matter.
- Utah - no problem for the Republicans.
- Alaska - Parnell (R), Sarah? Sarah who?
- Arkansas - Beebe (D)
- Idaho - Otter (R)
- Maryland - O'Malley (D)
- Nebraska - Heineman (R)
- New Hampshire - Lynch (D)
- Oregon - Kulongoski (D) is term limited, but safe for the Dems
- Texas - either Perry (R) or Hutchinson (R). These two will bloody themselves, but whoever emerges from the primary will win
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