Saturday with the House

Pollsters are currently tracking nearly sixty seats in the House that are competitive. This will be an election like no other and there is a chance for the Democrats to improve their majority in the House to near veto-proof margins. Gut check prediction? Democrats pick up 10 seats

Here's a list of some races to watch from the site, ElectoralVote.com, which qualifies "hot races" as:

1. The incumbent won by 2% or less in 2006
2. The incumbent is in the other party's territory and did not win convincingly.

• AL-2 - open seat, retiring Republican - if the Democrats win this seat, which they very well might, it's going to be a very good night for the Democrats everywhere.
• AL-5 - open seat, retiring Democrat - this seat should go back to the Republicans. It will come down to whether voters like the guy with the first name Parker or the guy with the last name Parker. Really, you can't make this stuff up.
• AK-AL - Don Young vs. Ethan Berkowitz - Young squeaked by in his primary and most polls show him losing to Berkowitz. Dem Pickup
• AZ-1 - retiring Republican - the Republican is Rick Renzi, who is leaving under a cloud. Good chance for Dem pickup.
• AZ-5 - The incumbent Democrat won in a district where he shouldn't have. Expect a big fight.
• AZ-8 - Another Democratic incumbent in a Republican-leaning seat. Toss-up
• CA-4 - C'mon, the Democrat is Charlie Brown - can he really win?
• CA-11 - The Democrat won in 2006 against a scandal-plagued Congressman. The Republican mayor of the biggest city in the district has endorsed the Democrat. Is this a Democratic year or what?
• CO-4 - The Republican is not a nice woman. There I said it. And Colorado is going to go blue up and down the ticket. Dem pickup.
• CT-2 - Democratic incumbent should be able to hold on.
• CT-4 - Chris Shays is the last Republican in all of New England. After this election, there might not be any more.
• FL-13 - This race is still undecided from 2006. The same two are at it again.
• FL-15 - Retiring Republican - Republican district, but anything might happen
• FL-16 - This is Mark Foley's district, captured by the Dems in 2006. The Democratic incumbent is a Christian Conservative, so he might be able to hold on.
• FL-21 - Suddenly a horse race in a district held by a Republican ever since it was created. Both men are Cuban-American and it should be a fiery race.
  
• FL-24 - Republican incumbent who has a bit of the Abramoff stink on him. The Democratic challenger is getting a lot of help from the DCCC.
• GA-8 - Democrat in a Republican leaning district, so a good change for a Republican pickup
  
• GA-12 - Another Democrat incumbent in a state likely to go Red in the national picture.
• IL-8 - Democrats in Illinois should have an easy time, even in this Republican leaning district.
  
• IL-10 - A Republican incumbent in a Democratic district in a state that is going to be the bluest on the national map.
• IL-11 - Retiring Republican could lead to a Dem pickup.
  
• IN-2 - Another race where the incumbent will have the edge and thus a Democratic hold.
  
• IN-8 - A conservative Democrat, but a Democrat in a Republican leaning district should be good enough for the seat to stay in the blue column
  
• IN-9 - The fourth time the two candidates have faced off. This time the Democrat is the incumbent, but the district is Republican leaning and it could flip again.
  
• KS-2 - Incumbent Democrat who knocked off an entrenched Republican in 2006. He tried for the rematch, but lost the primary, which is good for the Democratic Congresswoman to hold the seat.
  
• LA-6 - Currently held by a Democrat, who has been in the seat only a few months, he may only have a few more months in the seat. Rep pickup
  
• MI-7 - Incumbent Republican who won in 2006 50 to 46, but outspent his opponent 25 to 1. Not the best return on one's investment. The DCCC and Chris Van Hollen has money to throw at this race and he might flip it. Dem pickup
  
• MI-9 - Republican incumbent who is older than John McCain and may see his Congressional career end here. Dem pickup
  
• MN-1 - Democratic incumbent in a slightly Republican leaning district. He should be able to hold it.
  
• MN-3 - open seat, retiring Republican - the retirement was unexpected and the Democrats have fielded a better candidate than the Republicans. A definite toss-up
• MS-1 - A Democrat in Mississippi? Hey it happened and he should be able to hold the seat for the blue guys.
  
• MO-6 - A Republican leaning district and a Republican incumbent, but this year anything could happen. But probably not here.
  
• NV-3 - If this state goes blue, the Republican incumbent is likely out the door also.
  
• NH-1 - another 2006 rematch, but the Democrat has the incumbency now and should be able to hold it in a state that is likely to go blue.
  
• NJ-3 - open seat, retiring Republican - another excellent chance for Dem pickup
  
• NJ-7 - open seat, retiring Republican - NJ-3 is more Democratic, but this one could flip, too
• NM-1 - open seat, retiring Republican - with NM trending blue and good Democrats up and down the slate, this seat should go blue. Dem pickup
  
• NY-13 - open seat, disgraced Republican (poor Vito Fosella). Dem pickup.
  
• NY-19 - This is the seat currently held by Orleans singer, John Hall. Is he Still the One?
• NY-20 - Democratic incumbent beat a popular Republican in 2006 and the power of incumbency should be enough.
  
• NY-24 - Democratic incumbent should be able to hold the seat
  
• NY-25 - open seat, retiring Republican - the Democrat tried this in 2006, with the incumbent out of the picture, he should get there this time. Dem pickup
  
• NY-26 - open seat, retiring Republican - little chance for a Dem pickup in this very conservative western NY district.
  
• NY-29 - Another rematch from 2006 with the Republican incumbent likely to stave off the Democrat again.
  
• NC-8 - Republican incumbent won in 2006 by less than 350 votes. This rematch has the DCCC behind the Democrat and he might pull it off this time. Dem pickup
  
• OH-1 - Republican incumbent should be safe, but in a Democratic year, it's still a toss-up
  
• OH-2 - A 2006 rematch, where the Republican incumbent won by less than 3000 votes.
  
• OH-15 - open seat, retiring Republican - the Democrat who nearly unseated the incumbent is running again, and this time she should pull it off. Dem pickup
  
• OH-16 - open seat, retiring Republican - considered a top tier race, and a toss-up
  
• OH-18 - incumbent Democrat in a Republican leaning district, should be a close race.
  
• OR-5 - open seat, retiring Democrat - should be held by the Democrat
  
• PA-4 - Democrat incumbent being challenged by the woman he beat two years ago.
  
• PA-6 - Republican incumbent in a Democratic leaning district, but a mediocre Democrat should keep the seat red.
  
• PA-10 - Democratic incumbent who won in 2006 when the Republican got caught in a scandal. The Republicans are pushing hard for this seat.
  
• TX-22 - Dem incumbent in Tom Delay's old seat. Best opportunity for a Rep pickup
  
• TX-23 - Dem incumbent trying to stave off a Republican in a Republican leaning district. The Democrat has the advantage of being Hispanic, which is the majority of his constituents.
  
• VA-11 - open seat, retiring Republican - this seat is likely to flip - Dem pickup
  
• WA-8 - Rep incumbent has a rematch with 2006 opponent in a Dem leaning district
  
• WI-8 - Dem incumbent who won in 2006 should be able to hold.
  

Jed Bartlet is my President

Couldn't he be? Please?

Maureen Dowd wonders . . . courtesy of Aaron Sorkin

BARACK OBAMA knocks on the front door of a 300-year-old New Hampshire farmhouse while his Secret Service detail waits in the driveway. The door opens and OBAMA is standing face to face with former President JED BARTLET.

BARTLET Senator.

OBAMA Mr. President.

BARTLET You seem startled.

OBAMA I didn’t expect you to answer the door yourself.

BARTLET I didn’t expect you to be getting beat by John McCain and a Lancôme rep who thinks “The Flintstones” was based on a true story, so let’s call it even.

OBAMA Yes, sir.

BARTLET Come on in.

BARTLET leads OBAMA into his study.

BARTLET That was a hell of a convention.

OBAMA Thank you, I was proud of it.

BARTLET I meant the Republicans. The Us versus Them-a-thon. As a Democrat I was surprised to learn that I don’t like small towns, God, people with jobs or America. I’ve been a little out of touch but is there a mandate that the vice president be skilled at field dressing a moose —

OBAMA Look —

BARTLET — and selling Air Force Two on eBay?

OBAMA Joke all you want, Mr. President, but it worked.

BARTLET Imagine my surprise. What can I do for you, kid?

OBAMA I’m interested in your advice.

BARTLET I can’t give it to you.

OBAMA Why not?

BARTLET I’m supporting McCain.

OBAMA Why?

BARTLET He’s promised to eradicate evil and that was always on my “to do” list.

OBAMA O.K. —

BARTLET And he’s surrounded himself, I think, with the best possible team to get us out of an economic crisis. Why, Sarah Palin just said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had “gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers.” Can you spot the error in that statement?

OBAMA Yes, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aren’t funded by taxpayers.

BARTLET Well, at least they are now. Kind of reminds you of the time Bush said that Social Security wasn’t a government program. He was only off by a little — Social Security is the largest government program.

OBAMA I appreciate your sense of humor, sir, but I really could use your advice.

BARTLET Well, it seems to me your problem is a lot like the problem I had twice.

OBAMA Which was?

BARTLET A huge number of Americans thought I thought I was superior to them.

OBAMA And?

BARTLET I was.

OBAMA I mean, how did you overcome that?

BARTLET I won’t lie to you, being fictional was a big advantage.

OBAMA What do you mean?

BARTLET I’m a fictional president. You’re dreaming right now, Senator.

OBAMA I’m asleep?

BARTLET Yes, and you’re losing a ton of white women.

OBAMA Yes, sir.

BARTLET I mean tons.

OBAMA I understand.

BARTLET I didn’t even think there were that many white women.

OBAMA I see the numbers, sir. What do they want from me?

BARTLET I’ve been married to a white woman for 40 years and I still don’t know what she wants from me.

OBAMA How did you do it?

BARTLET Well, I say I’m sorry a lot.

OBAMA I don’t mean your marriage, sir. I mean how did you get America on your side?

BARTLET There again, I didn’t have to be president of America, I just had to be president of the people who watched “The West Wing.”

OBAMA That would make it easier.

BARTLET You’d do very well on NBC. Thursday nights in the old “ER” time slot with “30 Rock” as your lead-in, you’d get seven, seven-five in the demo with a 20, 22 share — you’d be selling $450,000 minutes.

OBAMA What the hell does that mean?

BARTLET TV talk. I thought you’d be interested.

OBAMA I’m not. They pivoted off the argument that I was inexperienced to the criticism that I’m — wait for it — the Messiah, who, by the way, was a community organizer. When I speak I try to lead with inspiration and aptitude. How is that a liability?

BARTLET Because the idea of American exceptionalism doesn’t extend to Americans being exceptional. If you excelled academically and are able to casually use 690 SAT words then you might as well have the press shoot video of you giving the finger to the Statue of Liberty while the Dixie Chicks sing the University of the Taliban fight song. The people who want English to be the official language of the United States are uncomfortable with their leaders being fluent in it.

OBAMA You’re saying race doesn’t have anything to do with it?

BARTLET I wouldn’t go that far. Brains made me look arrogant but they make you look uppity. Plus, if you had a black daughter —

OBAMA I have two.

BARTLET — who was 17 and pregnant and unmarried and the father was a teenager hoping to launch a rap career with “Thug Life” inked across his chest, you’d come in fifth behind Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and a ficus.

OBAMA You’re not cheering me up.

BARTLET Is that what you came here for?

OBAMA No, but it wouldn’t kill you.

BARTLET Have you tried doing a two-hour special or a really good Christmas show?

OBAMA Sir —

BARTLET Hang on. Home run. Right here. Is there any chance you could get Michelle pregnant before the fall sweeps?

OBAMA The problem is we can’t appear angry. Bush called us the angry left. Did you see anyone in Denver who was angry?

BARTLET Well ... let me think. ...We went to war against the wrong country, Osama bin Laden just celebrated his seventh anniversary of not being caught either dead or alive, my family’s less safe than it was eight years ago, we’ve lost trillions of dollars, millions of jobs, thousands of lives and we lost an entire city due to bad weather. So, you know ... I’m a little angry.

OBAMA What would you do?

BARTLET GET ANGRIER! Call them liars, because that’s what they are. Sarah Palin didn’t say “thanks but no thanks” to the Bridge to Nowhere. She just said “Thanks.” You were raised by a single mother on food stamps — where does a guy with eight houses who was legacied into Annapolis get off calling you an elitist? And by the way, if you do nothing else, take that word back. Elite is a good word, it means well above average. I’d ask them what their problem is with excellence. While you’re at it, I want the word “patriot” back. McCain can say that the transcendent issue of our time is the spread of Islamic fanaticism or he can choose a running mate who doesn’t know the Bush doctrine from the Monroe Doctrine, but he can’t do both at the same time and call it patriotic. They have to lie — the truth isn’t their friend right now. Get angry. Mock them mercilessly; they’ve earned it. McCain decried agents of intolerance, then chose a running mate who had to ask if she was allowed to ban books from a public library. It’s not bad enough she thinks the planet Earth was created in six days 6,000 years ago complete with a man, a woman and a talking snake, she wants schools to teach the rest of our kids to deny geology, anthropology, archaeology and common sense too? It’s not bad enough she’s forcing her own daughter into a loveless marriage to a teenage hood, she wants the rest of us to guide our daughters in that direction too? It’s not enough that a woman shouldn’t have the right to choose, it should be the law of the land that she has to carry and deliver her rapist’s baby too? I don’t know whether or not Governor Palin has the tenacity of a pit bull, but I know for sure she’s got the qualifications of one. And you’re worried about seeming angry? You could eat their lunch, make them cry and tell their mamas about it and God himself would call it restrained. There are times when you are simply required to be impolite. There are times when condescension is called for!

OBAMA Good to get that off your chest?

BARTLET Am I keeping you from something?

OBAMA Well, it’s not as if I didn’t know all of that and it took you like 20 minutes to say.

BARTLET I know, I have a problem, but admitting it is the first step.

OBAMA What’s the second step?

BARTLET I don’t care.

OBAMA So what about hope? Chuck it for outrage and put-downs?

BARTLET No. You’re elite, you can do both. Four weeks ago you had the best week of your campaign, followed — granted, inexplicably — by the worst week of your campaign. And you’re still in a statistical dead heat. You’re a 47-year-old black man with a foreign-sounding name who went to Harvard and thinks devotion to your country and lapel pins aren’t the same thing and you’re in a statistical tie with a war hero and a Cinemax heroine. To these aged eyes, Senator, that’s what progress looks like. You guys got four debates. Get out of my house and go back to work.

OBAMA Wait, what is it you always used to say? When you hit a bump on the show and your people were down and frustrated? You’d give them a pep talk and then you’d always end it with something. What was it ...?

BARTLET “Break’s over.”

Sunday with the Senators

There is more good news for Democrats (really, where isn't there good news for the Democrats this year?) in the Senate races. As has been said all along, the Republicans are defending twice as many seats this year as the Democrats and they are poised to see their minority grow in the Upper House.

Here are the races to watch.

• Alaska - Who would have ever put this race on a watch list earlier this year? Senator Ted (R) is going down it would seem. Democratic pickup.
• Colorado - Senator Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge to leave after two terms. Two very strong candidates stepped in to run and the edge is going to the Democrats in the face of Rep. Mark Udall (D). Democratic pickup.
• Georgia - I really want this race to go the Democratic way. I despise Saxby Chambliss. Obama will need to have HUGE coattails for Jim Martin to beat Chambliss. This is my dream race. I pray for this one but for the moment it's a Republican hold.
• Louisiana - Senator Mary Landrieu (D) has been targeted although it looks like she will be safe. Democratic hold.
• Maine - Senator Susan Collins (R) is one of those moderate Republicans that Democrats like to pick on, although they are useful to the Democrats. She is facing a stiff challenge from Maine's Democratic Congressman, but she should survive. Then maybe the Democrats can get her to switch parties - as there is that Senator in Connecticut who needs to be taken out back and shot. Republican hold.
• Minnesota - It must be a Democratic year if Al Franken can make a serious run for the Senate. But let us remember this is a state that elected Jesse Ventura. I think Franken (D) can beat Coleman (R), but I am in the minority here. Toss up.
• Mississippi - Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D). Wicker is the Senator tapped to fill out the seat of Trent Lott, who resigned last year. Ronnie Musgrove is a popular former Governor. While Thad Cochran (R) will cruise to reelection in the other Senate race, I think Wicker may lose to Musgrove. Toss up.
• New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen (D) is a popular former Governor. She is taking on the incumbent John Sununu (R) and most polls indicate she's got him. Democratic pickup.
• New Mexico - When this race is over, there will be two Udalls in the United States Senate. Pete Domenici (R) is retiring due to illness and Congressman Tom Udall (Colorado Mark's cousin) is burying his Republican opponent. Democratic pickup.
• North Carolina - MoveOn.org has targeted this race and it looks like it is beginning to have an effect. Elizabeth Dole (R) is facing Kay Hagen (D), the State Treasurer. This race shouldn't be close, but Dole has been largely ineffective and she is on the ropes. For now it is a pure Toss up.
• Oregon - this is a mirror race to the one waged on the East Coast last cycle against Lincoln Chafee (R-RI). Senator Gordon Smith frequently flies under the radar and is a very moderate Republican Senator. The Democrats really want this, but I don't see it happening. Republican hold.
• Virginia - The Commonwealth is poised to send its second Democratic Senator, this time in the persona of former Governor Mark Warner. How much do you want to bet that some of the signs out there just say Warner, making some Virginia Republican voters they are voting for John (the retiring Senator) and not Mark? Democratic pickup.

So what does that make the numbers? If ALL the chips fall the right way, the Democrats hit the magic number of 60 (but that also means holding onto Lieberman, which Harry Reid may not want to do). Realistically, a prediction? Democrats 57 Republicans 43 (one independent, Sanders of VT with the Dems and Lieberman of CT with the Reps).

Presidential Polls Update

With the two Conventions in the rear view mirror - the sprint is on for the final two months. Unless you live in a swing state, you will likely be left alone. But this race is going to be close and it will come down to the wire. It is inconceivable that anyone can not vote in this election - the stakes are too high. But they will. And then there are of course the crazies who will vote and God help us from those people.

One the up side, there are no polls that show Obama losing the Electoral Vote. Every single one shows him ahead. Of the various polls that I look at, two of them have him with enough EVs to carry the election, that is he has more than 270. I will believe it when I see it on November 4 (although it is sure to be November 5 by the time we know). I also fear for a 269-269 tie, there are just too many mathematical calculations that make it possible. But again, that works for Obama, for the Democrats hold enough of the delegations in the House and the Senate to carry the day for him.

Here's a good site that aggregates several of the polls into one graph.

The popular vote is a different story. It is incredibly tight, and it may indeed come down to a case where Obama loses the popular vote but wins the election in the Electoral College. Yeah, like that ever happens - oh, wait.

Fasten your seat belts folks, it's going to be a very bumpy couple of weeks.

The Race to the Finish

I haven't forgotten about you. It is just there is so much information and sometimes it is a little disheartening. Over on my regular blog, I will shortly be posting about the incredible importance of this upcoming election. I will get some poll / prediction numbers here soon.

For now, in case you have been under a rock somewhere, it's Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin. And for the most part - the race is dead even. May God have mercy on us.