I have been neglectful of this blog for some time. Here we are in October of 2007 and the interminable quest for the presidency continues. Here are a series of posts to update where things stand for the races for the House, the Senate, and of course, the Presidency.
The House of Representatives is currently at 232 Democrats and 200 Republicans. There are currently three vacancies. In Massachusetts, Martin Meehan resigned to become Chancellor of the University of Massachusetts. A special election will take place on October 16. It is expected that Paul Tsongas' widow will win that election and the seat will remain in Democratic hands. Representatives Paul Gillmore (R-OH) and Joann Davis (R-VA) died in office and special elections will be set to fill those vacancies. Neither seat is expected to be competitive.
So what does this mean for 2008? According to Sabato's Crystal Ball, there are a total of sixty-one competitive races in 2008. Twenty-eight of the seats are held by Democrats and thirty-three by Republicans. Sabato defines the race as competitive if the victor won with less than 55 percent of the vote in 2006. This site is watching the "open seat" races, where the representatives have announced their retirements from the House. As of mid-September, this list has nine people on it, seven Republicans and two Democrats, including former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.
Several of the seats currently held by Democrats are in Republican districts (Mark Foley's district in Florida, for one) and they will be challenging for Democrats to hold. My early prediction? The House stays in Democratic hands but the majority shrinks. Make me put a number on it? 220-215.
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