Saturday with the House

Pollsters are currently tracking nearly sixty seats in the House that are competitive. This will be an election like no other and there is a chance for the Democrats to improve their majority in the House to near veto-proof margins. Gut check prediction? Democrats pick up 10 seats

Here's a list of some races to watch from the site, ElectoralVote.com, which qualifies "hot races" as:

1. The incumbent won by 2% or less in 2006
2. The incumbent is in the other party's territory and did not win convincingly.

• AL-2 - open seat, retiring Republican - if the Democrats win this seat, which they very well might, it's going to be a very good night for the Democrats everywhere.
• AL-5 - open seat, retiring Democrat - this seat should go back to the Republicans. It will come down to whether voters like the guy with the first name Parker or the guy with the last name Parker. Really, you can't make this stuff up.
• AK-AL - Don Young vs. Ethan Berkowitz - Young squeaked by in his primary and most polls show him losing to Berkowitz. Dem Pickup
• AZ-1 - retiring Republican - the Republican is Rick Renzi, who is leaving under a cloud. Good chance for Dem pickup.
• AZ-5 - The incumbent Democrat won in a district where he shouldn't have. Expect a big fight.
• AZ-8 - Another Democratic incumbent in a Republican-leaning seat. Toss-up
• CA-4 - C'mon, the Democrat is Charlie Brown - can he really win?
• CA-11 - The Democrat won in 2006 against a scandal-plagued Congressman. The Republican mayor of the biggest city in the district has endorsed the Democrat. Is this a Democratic year or what?
• CO-4 - The Republican is not a nice woman. There I said it. And Colorado is going to go blue up and down the ticket. Dem pickup.
• CT-2 - Democratic incumbent should be able to hold on.
• CT-4 - Chris Shays is the last Republican in all of New England. After this election, there might not be any more.
• FL-13 - This race is still undecided from 2006. The same two are at it again.
• FL-15 - Retiring Republican - Republican district, but anything might happen
• FL-16 - This is Mark Foley's district, captured by the Dems in 2006. The Democratic incumbent is a Christian Conservative, so he might be able to hold on.
• FL-21 - Suddenly a horse race in a district held by a Republican ever since it was created. Both men are Cuban-American and it should be a fiery race.
  
• FL-24 - Republican incumbent who has a bit of the Abramoff stink on him. The Democratic challenger is getting a lot of help from the DCCC.
• GA-8 - Democrat in a Republican leaning district, so a good change for a Republican pickup
  
• GA-12 - Another Democrat incumbent in a state likely to go Red in the national picture.
• IL-8 - Democrats in Illinois should have an easy time, even in this Republican leaning district.
  
• IL-10 - A Republican incumbent in a Democratic district in a state that is going to be the bluest on the national map.
• IL-11 - Retiring Republican could lead to a Dem pickup.
  
• IN-2 - Another race where the incumbent will have the edge and thus a Democratic hold.
  
• IN-8 - A conservative Democrat, but a Democrat in a Republican leaning district should be good enough for the seat to stay in the blue column
  
• IN-9 - The fourth time the two candidates have faced off. This time the Democrat is the incumbent, but the district is Republican leaning and it could flip again.
  
• KS-2 - Incumbent Democrat who knocked off an entrenched Republican in 2006. He tried for the rematch, but lost the primary, which is good for the Democratic Congresswoman to hold the seat.
  
• LA-6 - Currently held by a Democrat, who has been in the seat only a few months, he may only have a few more months in the seat. Rep pickup
  
• MI-7 - Incumbent Republican who won in 2006 50 to 46, but outspent his opponent 25 to 1. Not the best return on one's investment. The DCCC and Chris Van Hollen has money to throw at this race and he might flip it. Dem pickup
  
• MI-9 - Republican incumbent who is older than John McCain and may see his Congressional career end here. Dem pickup
  
• MN-1 - Democratic incumbent in a slightly Republican leaning district. He should be able to hold it.
  
• MN-3 - open seat, retiring Republican - the retirement was unexpected and the Democrats have fielded a better candidate than the Republicans. A definite toss-up
• MS-1 - A Democrat in Mississippi? Hey it happened and he should be able to hold the seat for the blue guys.
  
• MO-6 - A Republican leaning district and a Republican incumbent, but this year anything could happen. But probably not here.
  
• NV-3 - If this state goes blue, the Republican incumbent is likely out the door also.
  
• NH-1 - another 2006 rematch, but the Democrat has the incumbency now and should be able to hold it in a state that is likely to go blue.
  
• NJ-3 - open seat, retiring Republican - another excellent chance for Dem pickup
  
• NJ-7 - open seat, retiring Republican - NJ-3 is more Democratic, but this one could flip, too
• NM-1 - open seat, retiring Republican - with NM trending blue and good Democrats up and down the slate, this seat should go blue. Dem pickup
  
• NY-13 - open seat, disgraced Republican (poor Vito Fosella). Dem pickup.
  
• NY-19 - This is the seat currently held by Orleans singer, John Hall. Is he Still the One?
• NY-20 - Democratic incumbent beat a popular Republican in 2006 and the power of incumbency should be enough.
  
• NY-24 - Democratic incumbent should be able to hold the seat
  
• NY-25 - open seat, retiring Republican - the Democrat tried this in 2006, with the incumbent out of the picture, he should get there this time. Dem pickup
  
• NY-26 - open seat, retiring Republican - little chance for a Dem pickup in this very conservative western NY district.
  
• NY-29 - Another rematch from 2006 with the Republican incumbent likely to stave off the Democrat again.
  
• NC-8 - Republican incumbent won in 2006 by less than 350 votes. This rematch has the DCCC behind the Democrat and he might pull it off this time. Dem pickup
  
• OH-1 - Republican incumbent should be safe, but in a Democratic year, it's still a toss-up
  
• OH-2 - A 2006 rematch, where the Republican incumbent won by less than 3000 votes.
  
• OH-15 - open seat, retiring Republican - the Democrat who nearly unseated the incumbent is running again, and this time she should pull it off. Dem pickup
  
• OH-16 - open seat, retiring Republican - considered a top tier race, and a toss-up
  
• OH-18 - incumbent Democrat in a Republican leaning district, should be a close race.
  
• OR-5 - open seat, retiring Democrat - should be held by the Democrat
  
• PA-4 - Democrat incumbent being challenged by the woman he beat two years ago.
  
• PA-6 - Republican incumbent in a Democratic leaning district, but a mediocre Democrat should keep the seat red.
  
• PA-10 - Democratic incumbent who won in 2006 when the Republican got caught in a scandal. The Republicans are pushing hard for this seat.
  
• TX-22 - Dem incumbent in Tom Delay's old seat. Best opportunity for a Rep pickup
  
• TX-23 - Dem incumbent trying to stave off a Republican in a Republican leaning district. The Democrat has the advantage of being Hispanic, which is the majority of his constituents.
  
• VA-11 - open seat, retiring Republican - this seat is likely to flip - Dem pickup
  
• WA-8 - Rep incumbent has a rematch with 2006 opponent in a Dem leaning district
  
• WI-8 - Dem incumbent who won in 2006 should be able to hold.
  

House of Representatives Update

"No, I'm sorry Ms. Bono-Mack, you may not vote twice, just because you married another House member." Yes, Mary Bono (R-CA), the widow of our dear friend, Sonny, married fellow Representative Connie Mack (R-FL) earlier this month. While it seems that the two of them are safe in their seats in the House, what does the rest of the table look like?

Can the Democrats increase their margins? Can the Republicans claw their way back from the pit? The thing about House races is that as soon as you get elected, you have to start campaigning again, especially if you are in a district that is competitive. Granted with Gerrymandering, there are fewer of those around, but there are some seats that will be newsworthy in 2008.

Larry Sabato, over there at the Crystal Ball again, has come out with his Congressional outlook. He starts off by saying,

Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often-years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other.

Since 1970 we have had five of those years:

[We could have a quiz and make you name them . . . nah, here they are]

• 1974 - a direct result of Watergate, the Democrats netted 48 House seats (along with 75 freshmen, who shook up the House)
• 1980 - The Republican landslide with Ronald Reagan's initial election, the GOP added 33 House seats. It didn't give them the majority, but it came damn close.
• 1982 - And the pendulum swings back. During a recession, Democrats won back 26 of the 33 seats they had lost two years earlier.
• 1994 - The Contract with America and our man Newt. Forty years of Democratic control of the House came to an end, as the GOP added 52 seats
• 2006 - After 12 years, Democrats screamed back gaining 30 House seats

There is more good news for the Democrats in this election cycle [from Sabato]:

1. For the first time in at least two decades, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has out-raised the National Republican Congressional Committee, and by the sizeable margin of $56.6 million to $40.7 million (with cash on hand: $29.2 million D to $2.5 million R).
2. Freshmen Democrats, many of them elected from normally GOP constituencies in 2006 and thus potentially vulnerable [see my comments above], have been doing particularly well in fundraising.
3. Out of 23 open seats for 2008, 17 are held by Republicans. Open seats give the opposition party the best chance for a takeover in many instances. You will note below that seven of these are rated as toss-ups.

Here's how Sabato is calling the races in the 23 districts where the incumbent is retiring:

• Alabama 2 - (Terry Everett, R) - Safe R
• California 52 (Duncan Hunter, R) - Safe R
• Colorado 6 (Tom Tancredo, R) - Safe R
• Louisiana 4 (Jim McCrery III, R) - Safe R
• Mississippi 3 (Chip Pickering, Jr., R) - Safe R
• Ohio 7 (Dave Hobson, R) - Safe R
• Illinois 18 (Ray LaHood, R) - Likely R
• New Jersey 3 (Jim Saxton, R) - Likely R
• New Mexico 2 (Steve Pearce, R) - Likely R
• Wyoming AL (Barbara Cubin, R) - Likely R
• Illinois 14 (Dennis Hastert, R) - Leans R
• New Jersey 7 (Mike Ferguson, R) - Toss-up
• Arizona 1 (Rick Renzi, R) - Toss-up
• Illinois 11 (Jerry Weller, R) - Toss-up
• Minnesota 3 (Jim Ramstad, R) - Toss-up
• New Mexico 1 (Heather Wilson, R) - Toss-up
• Ohio 15 (Deborah Pryce, R) - Toss-up
• Ohio 16 (Ralph Regula, R) - Toss-up
• Indiana 7 (Julia Carson, D) - Likely D
• Colorado 2 (Mark Udall, D) - Safe D
• Maine 1 (Tom Allen, D) - Safe D
• New Mexico 3 (Tom Udall, D) - Safe D
• New York 21 (Michael McNulty, D) - Safe D

There are many bridges to cross between now and election day. A lot will also hinge on who is the nominee of each party for president and how big the coattails are for those down the food chain. Stay tuned.

A Look at the House of Representatives

I have been neglectful of this blog for some time. Here we are in October of 2007 and the interminable quest for the presidency continues. Here are a series of posts to update where things stand for the races for the House, the Senate, and of course, the Presidency.

The House of Representatives is currently at 232 Democrats and 200 Republicans. There are currently three vacancies. In Massachusetts, Martin Meehan resigned to become Chancellor of the University of Massachusetts. A special election will take place on October 16. It is expected that Paul Tsongas' widow will win that election and the seat will remain in Democratic hands. Representatives Paul Gillmore (R-OH) and Joann Davis (R-VA) died in office and special elections will be set to fill those vacancies. Neither seat is expected to be competitive.

So what does this mean for 2008? According to Sabato's Crystal Ball, there are a total of sixty-one competitive races in 2008. Twenty-eight of the seats are held by Democrats and thirty-three by Republicans. Sabato defines the race as competitive if the victor won with less than 55 percent of the vote in 2006. This site is watching the "open seat" races, where the representatives have announced their retirements from the House. As of mid-September, this list has nine people on it, seven Republicans and two Democrats, including former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

Several of the seats currently held by Democrats are in Republican districts (Mark Foley's district in Florida, for one) and they will be challenging for Democrats to hold. My early prediction? The House stays in Democratic hands but the majority shrinks. Make me put a number on it? 220-215.