So how'd we do with the predictions?
I said the Senate would be 52-48 Democrat. I expected (hoped) that either Tennessee or Arizona might fall to the Democrats, but alas, it was not to be. And now with Rummy heading into the sunset, there was concern about the Lieberman issue, but Bush has picked former CIA chief Bob Gates to head the Pentagon. So the Senate prediction - pretty good.
House of Representatives: 233 Democrats, 202 Republicans. There are still ten races yet to be decided in the House (including two seats where the incumbents face a runoff elections - Jefferson (D) in Louisiana and Bonilla (R) in Texas). The current count is 229 Democrats and 196 Republicans. The remaining ten races will likely go (another prediction here, I know) 3D, 7R. That would make the final count of the new House 232 Democrats and 203 Republicans. Not bad, only missed it by one and I might not have missed it if one of those races goes my way.
Governors. I said 29 Dem 21 GOP. That looks like I will be one off here as well. Tim Pawlenty has yet to be declared the winner in Minnesota but if he prevails it will be 28 Dems and 22 for the GOP. Where did I miss? Alaska. I really thought the known quantity of Tony Knowles would beat out newbie Sarah Palin. But that's the cold white north for ya.
Showing posts with label 2006. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2006. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
How we doing?
At this time last night, most of us were settling in for a long night. I came home from the polls (where my precinct had nearly 50% turnout!) and tuned in to CNN. Immediately, the results started falling the democratic way. The Senate race in Ohio and Pennsylvania gave the Dems their first two pickups. Then Menendez held off Kean in New Jersey. Suddenly, the Senate was in reach.
Then the House races. Anne Northup in Kentucky, Ellsworth in Indiana and others. At about 11:00pm, CNN projected that the Democrats would win control of the House.
When I finally went to bed at 1:00am, the House seats were piling up on the blue side of the aisle. The Senate was down to three races, Missouri, Montana, and Virginia. By the time I arose (a few hours later), Claire McCaskill had vanquished Jim Talent in Missouri and the Senate was tied 49-49.
By lunchtime today (right around the time that Rummy was being shown the door), Montana fell to the Democrats. One down, one to go. And now, most wire services are reporting that Jim Webb has defeated George Allen and the Democrats have secured control of the Senate.
Then the House races. Anne Northup in Kentucky, Ellsworth in Indiana and others. At about 11:00pm, CNN projected that the Democrats would win control of the House.
When I finally went to bed at 1:00am, the House seats were piling up on the blue side of the aisle. The Senate was down to three races, Missouri, Montana, and Virginia. By the time I arose (a few hours later), Claire McCaskill had vanquished Jim Talent in Missouri and the Senate was tied 49-49.
By lunchtime today (right around the time that Rummy was being shown the door), Montana fell to the Democrats. One down, one to go. And now, most wire services are reporting that Jim Webb has defeated George Allen and the Democrats have secured control of the Senate.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
It's Election Day in the USA
Get out and Vote! Today is the day that we exercise our right to vote and ensure that we have a voice in the democratic process. If you choose to keep silent today, you forfeit your right to complain about the way things turn out tomorrow.
There are too many close races here in Maryland and Virginia, not to mention across the country, to stay home today. Raise your voice and cast your ballot. Do it now!
In Maryland and DC, polls are open until 8:00pm. Virginia's polls are open until 9:00.
There are too many close races here in Maryland and Virginia, not to mention across the country, to stay home today. Raise your voice and cast your ballot. Do it now!
In Maryland and DC, polls are open until 8:00pm. Virginia's polls are open until 9:00.
Sunday, November 05, 2006
Final Predictions
So here it comes. Will the Democratic wave be a tsunami or a little ripple? Depends on who you ask. Coming into the final forty-eight hours before the end of the 2006 election season, people are doing anything to avoid regular television so as to not see another political ad. But I personally, can't wait to get home Tuesday evening and watch the returns come in. While we wait for the votes to be counted, here are my final predictions:
The United States Senate: 52 Democrats (with two Independents, Lieberman and Sanders), 48 Republicans. Democrats pick up Republican seats in Montana (Goodbye, Senator Burns), Missouri (Later, Senator Talent), Ohio (Beat it, Senator DeWine), Pennsylvania (Farewell, Senator Santorum), and Virginia (Adios, Senator Allen). I am also predicting that either Tennessee or (hold on to your hat) Arizona falls the Democratic way. I have long believed that Harold Ford might pull this race out and I still think he can, but momentum is definitely in Corker's favor right now. In Arizona, Senator Kyl has been leading his race the entire time, but today a poll out in the Arizona Star has his opponent, Jon Pederson within the margin of error. If the wave is big enough, keep an eye out on Arizona. Democrats will successfully hold seats in Minnesota, Washington, Michigan, Maryland (but barely, and I am not convinced), and New Jersey (also by a razor thin margin, perhaps only by a few federal criminal investigators).
The House of Representatives: Paging Speaker Pelosi, Speaker Pelosi, please come to the floor of the House, thank you. It is clear that the Democrats are going to wrest control of the House away from Republicans, the only question remaining is how big the majority will be. My bet: Democrats 233, Republicans 202, a 31-seat majority. There are any number of races that could still go either way, but that's my number, a democratic majority of between 25 and 30 seats.
Governors: 29 Democrats, 21 Republicans. Hold your breath. I am not sure about Maryland.
Check back to see how I did.
The United States Senate: 52 Democrats (with two Independents, Lieberman and Sanders), 48 Republicans. Democrats pick up Republican seats in Montana (Goodbye, Senator Burns), Missouri (Later, Senator Talent), Ohio (Beat it, Senator DeWine), Pennsylvania (Farewell, Senator Santorum), and Virginia (Adios, Senator Allen). I am also predicting that either Tennessee or (hold on to your hat) Arizona falls the Democratic way. I have long believed that Harold Ford might pull this race out and I still think he can, but momentum is definitely in Corker's favor right now. In Arizona, Senator Kyl has been leading his race the entire time, but today a poll out in the Arizona Star has his opponent, Jon Pederson within the margin of error. If the wave is big enough, keep an eye out on Arizona. Democrats will successfully hold seats in Minnesota, Washington, Michigan, Maryland (but barely, and I am not convinced), and New Jersey (also by a razor thin margin, perhaps only by a few federal criminal investigators).
The House of Representatives: Paging Speaker Pelosi, Speaker Pelosi, please come to the floor of the House, thank you. It is clear that the Democrats are going to wrest control of the House away from Republicans, the only question remaining is how big the majority will be. My bet: Democrats 233, Republicans 202, a 31-seat majority. There are any number of races that could still go either way, but that's my number, a democratic majority of between 25 and 30 seats.
Governors: 29 Democrats, 21 Republicans. Hold your breath. I am not sure about Maryland.
Check back to see how I did.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Secretary Lieberman?
A friend was reviewing with me the current political landscape. With control of the Senate down to four states still considered toss-ups (Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, and New Jersey), the Democrats would need to sweep these states to gain a 52-48 majority in the Senate. My friend noted that should the Republicans find themselves with 49 seats the following scenario could occur.
In Connecticut, Senator Lieberman is reelected. However, President Bush and his advisors decide they need to regain control of the Senate. Bush calls Lieberman and offers him the position of Secretary of Defense, to replace the embattled Donald Rumsfeld. Lieberman, close enough to being a Republican, heeds the call to serve from the President and accepts. Governor Jodi Rell, who is expected to be reelected handily in Connecticut is presented with an opportunity to pick a senator to replace Lieberman. Governor Rell is a Republican. One expects she would pick a Republican to take Lieberman's seat.
An interesting concept. Let's hope it does not need to be tried.
In Connecticut, Senator Lieberman is reelected. However, President Bush and his advisors decide they need to regain control of the Senate. Bush calls Lieberman and offers him the position of Secretary of Defense, to replace the embattled Donald Rumsfeld. Lieberman, close enough to being a Republican, heeds the call to serve from the President and accepts. Governor Jodi Rell, who is expected to be reelected handily in Connecticut is presented with an opportunity to pick a senator to replace Lieberman. Governor Rell is a Republican. One expects she would pick a Republican to take Lieberman's seat.
An interesting concept. Let's hope it does not need to be tried.
Friday, October 27, 2006
Republican Desparation
With less than two weeks to go before the elections, the general consensus is to "follow the money" to see where the two parties think races can be won. In Tennessee, Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. is trying to become the first black Senator from the South since Reconstruction and is locked in a tight battle with Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker.
The Republican National Committee has dedicated a large amount of cash and resources to this race to try and put Corker over the top. However, the RNC has pulled a television ad from the airwaves amid charges of racism. The ad shows a white woman with blond hair and bare shoulders who says she met Ford at a Playboy party and whispers into the camera, "Harold, call me."
The NAACP quickly responded along with many others that the ad plays to racial fears about black men and white women. Ford denounced the ad, saying on the Imus in the Morning show, "the national Republican Party, I think, still believes that we're operating in 1970." Even Bob Corker has gone on the record, calling the ad, "tacky."
The Republican National Committee has dedicated a large amount of cash and resources to this race to try and put Corker over the top. However, the RNC has pulled a television ad from the airwaves amid charges of racism. The ad shows a white woman with blond hair and bare shoulders who says she met Ford at a Playboy party and whispers into the camera, "Harold, call me."
The NAACP quickly responded along with many others that the ad plays to racial fears about black men and white women. Ford denounced the ad, saying on the Imus in the Morning show, "the national Republican Party, I think, still believes that we're operating in 1970." Even Bob Corker has gone on the record, calling the ad, "tacky."
Getting out the Vote
The USA Today reports in an article in its weekend edition that thirty-five states and the District of Columbia offer some type of in-person early voting, either at voting machines or by filling out absentee ballots. You can vote by absentee ballots in all fifty states. In Maryland, there has been a big spike in absentee voting, especially in the wake of the problems encountered on primary day, when polling places opened with no key cards for voters to use in the electronic voting machines. In addition to that there is the issue of having no paper trail with the electronic voting machines and the possible irregularities that could result in that.
The drawback / advantage to early or absentee voting is that it does not change the outcome of the election. Absentee ballots are not counted until after election day concludes, but in some races this year, absentee ballots may make the difference in some closely contested races.
The drawback / advantage to early or absentee voting is that it does not change the outcome of the election. Absentee ballots are not counted until after election day concludes, but in some races this year, absentee ballots may make the difference in some closely contested races.
Sunday, October 22, 2006
State House Shuffle
It's a good time to be a Democrat. As it looks increasingly like Democrats will take control of both houses of Congress, it also looks like that on November 8, Democrats will control nearly 30 of the governorships around the country. Let's take a look at the 35 races. 15 states do not have gubernatorial contests this year.
The New York Times 2006 Election Guide currently projects 13 safe Republican governorships, including six states where the governor is not up for reelection. The states with contests that are expected to go red are: Idaho, South Dakota, Nebraska, Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Connecticut. Of these only Idaho will elect a new governor, the others will all reelect the incumbent. There are six states where the expected outcome is Republican, including the Governator in California, Alabama, Florida, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Hawaii. Only Florida, where Jeb Bush is term-limited, will elect a new governor.
On the Democratic side, fifteen are deemed safe for the Democrats, with seven of those holding elections, including Arizona, New Mexico, Kansas, Tennessee, Ohio, New York, and New Hampshire. New York and Ohio will elect new Governors, Eliot Spitzer in New York and Ted Strickland in Ohio. Eleven other races are trending Democratic: Oregon, Wyoming, Colorado, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Maine. Colorado, Arkansas, and Massachusetts will all elect new Governors and all of them are replacing outgoing Republicans. Here in Maryland, incumbent Robert Ehrlich will lose to Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley.
That leaves five tossups. Alaska, where Frank Murkowski lost his primary and Republican Sarah Palin is facing off against former Governor Tony Knowles. It's cold in Alaska, no reason the state shouldn't be blue. In Nevada, the incumbent is term-limited and the race has recently featured some serious personal attacks on the two candidates. This winner is whoever is still standing on November 7. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) is holding off a late challenge from Democrat Mike Hatch in one of the "bluest" states in the country. In Iowa, Democrat Tom Vilsack is retiring and Republican Representative Jim Nussle is looking like he will capture the state house for the Republicans. Jennifer Granholm in Michigan is also holding off a late push from her Republican opponent.
So what's it all mean? Prediction: Democrats 30, Republicans 20.
The New York Times 2006 Election Guide currently projects 13 safe Republican governorships, including six states where the governor is not up for reelection. The states with contests that are expected to go red are: Idaho, South Dakota, Nebraska, Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Connecticut. Of these only Idaho will elect a new governor, the others will all reelect the incumbent. There are six states where the expected outcome is Republican, including the Governator in California, Alabama, Florida, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Hawaii. Only Florida, where Jeb Bush is term-limited, will elect a new governor.
On the Democratic side, fifteen are deemed safe for the Democrats, with seven of those holding elections, including Arizona, New Mexico, Kansas, Tennessee, Ohio, New York, and New Hampshire. New York and Ohio will elect new Governors, Eliot Spitzer in New York and Ted Strickland in Ohio. Eleven other races are trending Democratic: Oregon, Wyoming, Colorado, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Maine. Colorado, Arkansas, and Massachusetts will all elect new Governors and all of them are replacing outgoing Republicans. Here in Maryland, incumbent Robert Ehrlich will lose to Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley.
That leaves five tossups. Alaska, where Frank Murkowski lost his primary and Republican Sarah Palin is facing off against former Governor Tony Knowles. It's cold in Alaska, no reason the state shouldn't be blue. In Nevada, the incumbent is term-limited and the race has recently featured some serious personal attacks on the two candidates. This winner is whoever is still standing on November 7. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) is holding off a late challenge from Democrat Mike Hatch in one of the "bluest" states in the country. In Iowa, Democrat Tom Vilsack is retiring and Republican Representative Jim Nussle is looking like he will capture the state house for the Republicans. Jennifer Granholm in Michigan is also holding off a late push from her Republican opponent.
So what's it all mean? Prediction: Democrats 30, Republicans 20.
Sunday, October 15, 2006
Rove Drinking the Kool-Aid, or is he?
The little troll is at it again. Sunday's Washington Post featured an article with the headline, "White House Upbeat About GOP Prospects. It goes on to say that Karl Rove and other Republican operatives working throughout the administration all believe that Republican majorities will be saved in both houses.
Of course this is contrary to many polls around the country. Granted that Democrats will need to "run the table" in the Senate races in play and even with the Foley scandal and public confidence in Congress at all-time lows, Democrats need 16 seats to take the House.
What is not written in the article but immediately came to my mind is why Rove is so confident. The puppet master of the 2000 and 2004 election steals certainly has something up his sleeve to staunch the Republican bleeding, we may just need to wait another month to see what it is.
And of course, the many papers reported today that GOP funds were being pulled out of Ohio and Republican Mike DeWine's efforts to keep his Senate seat have all but been given up by the establishment. But I am sure that Karl-baby is sure that Mike will pull it out in the end. Remember, its Ohio, remember 2004?
Of course this is contrary to many polls around the country. Granted that Democrats will need to "run the table" in the Senate races in play and even with the Foley scandal and public confidence in Congress at all-time lows, Democrats need 16 seats to take the House.
What is not written in the article but immediately came to my mind is why Rove is so confident. The puppet master of the 2000 and 2004 election steals certainly has something up his sleeve to staunch the Republican bleeding, we may just need to wait another month to see what it is.
And of course, the many papers reported today that GOP funds were being pulled out of Ohio and Republican Mike DeWine's efforts to keep his Senate seat have all but been given up by the establishment. But I am sure that Karl-baby is sure that Mike will pull it out in the end. Remember, its Ohio, remember 2004?
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
The Democratic Wave
In the wake of the Foley page scandal, the Washington Post reported today that the Republicans are bracing for a loss of between 7 and 30 seats in the House in the upcoming election. The Republicans are running for cover, making it hard for them to be campaigning in their home districts. The Democrats need to stay on message and not appear to be taking too much advantage of the Republicans problems. A poll that appeared in the Post alongside this article shows a strong shift of support to Democratic candidates.
In Virginia, Republican incumbent George Allen and his Democratic challenger, Jim Webb, faced off in their final debate last night in Richmond. What was supposed to be an easy victory for Allen, starting him down the path toward a presidential run in 2008, now looks to be a race that is being watched all over the country. Democratic control of the Senate may well rest in the Old Dominion.
Current predictions today (hopefully better than my baseball predictions I made on my other blog):
Coming soon, a look at the Governor's races, where Democrats are also poised to capture (or hold) the majority of the state houses.
In Virginia, Republican incumbent George Allen and his Democratic challenger, Jim Webb, faced off in their final debate last night in Richmond. What was supposed to be an easy victory for Allen, starting him down the path toward a presidential run in 2008, now looks to be a race that is being watched all over the country. Democratic control of the Senate may well rest in the Old Dominion.
Current predictions today (hopefully better than my baseball predictions I made on my other blog):
- Senate - 52 Democrats (with two independents, Lieberman and Sanders) and 48 Democrats. The races to watch in the home stretch:
- Missouri, where Claire McCaskill is likely to edge out Republican Incumbent Jim Talent
- freakin' New Jersey, where Bob Menendez is barely ahead of challenger Tom Kean, Jr.
- Ohio, where incumbent Mike DeWine is trailing Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown
- Tennessee, where I have long said that Harold Ford will win the seat being vacated by Bill Frist
- Virginia, as mentioned, the race that everybody is watching.
- The House - 235 Democrats, 200 Republicans. Nancy Pelosi will likely get the Speaker's gavel from Dennis Hastert.
Coming soon, a look at the Governor's races, where Democrats are also poised to capture (or hold) the majority of the state houses.
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
The House of Representatives
A great article in the Washington Post today, which included the following line: "Republican operatives closely following the battle for the House and Senate said that they are virtually ready to concede nearly a third of the 15 seats the Democrats need to recapture control of the House, and that they will spend the next five weeks trying to shelter other vulnerable incumbents from the fallout of the Foley scandal in hopes of salvaging a slender majority." You have got to love a party in crisis, especially when it is the Republicans.
Let's start with a brief history lesson. The House of Representatives (or the Lower House) is made up of 435 members, distributed among the 50 states based on population. As a result, California, Texas, and New York have the largest Congressional delegations, while smaller or sparsely populated states (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming) have the minimum, one at-large delegate. House members are elected to two-year terms and the entire House is up for election at the same time (unlike the Senate, which is elected in thirds). So, technically, the entire House could change every two years - but never happened and never will. House seats are generally safe and rarely competitive and many times not contested. It is not unusual for House members to serve for more than 20 years. House districts are also usually drawn to favorite a particular candidate or party. This is known as "Gerrymandering" and is named for a Massachusetts Governor (and signer of the Declaration of Independence) Elbridge Gerry.
The current composition of the House is 230 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent (Socialist Bernie Sanders (VT), who is leaving the House to run for the Senate this year), and three vacancies: Bob Menendez (D-NJ), who was appointed to fill Jon Corzine's Senate seat when Corzine was elected Governor; Tom Delay (R-TX), who resigned over ethics violations, and most recently, Mark Foley (R-FL), who abruptly resigned last week over allegations of salacious emails with a Congressional page.
Many projections show 190 seats safe for the Democrats with 17 leaning Democrat and 189 seats safe for the Republicans and 21 leaning Republican. For all of you that like math, how many seats does that leave? That's right! 18 seats are considered toss ups. To be in the majority, a party needs (more math) 218 seats. Let's take a look at the chances of the Democrats pulling this off shall we? Keys to the win? Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, and Ohio. These states by far, pose the best chances for Democrats to unseat Republican incumbents.
In Pennsylvania, four districts are being targeted, CD6, CD7, CD8, and CD10. All have Republican incumbents in a state that is most certainly trending Democrat. Many pundits believe that only Jim Gerlach in CD6 will fall to Lois Murphy (which I agree with), but I believe that Curt Weldon in CD7 will lose to Joe Sestak. I don't think that Mike Fitzpatrick will lose in CD8, but Don Sherwood may not be able to stop the wave of democratic victories that will sweep across the state in November and he will lose to Christopher Carney.
Connecticut has five congressional districts. Three of the seats are held by Republicans and two by Democrats. After Election Day, look for only one to be left standing. In CD2, which covers the entire eastern part of the state, Robert Simmons is having trouble fighting off Joseph Courtney. CD5 is looking better and better for incumbent Nancy Johnson and she may be the aforementioned lone Republican in the delegation. In CD4, Christopher Shays is almost certain to go down to defeat to Diane Farrell. Those moderate Republicans are a dying breed, evidently (See Rhode Island and Senator Chafee).
In Florida, there are four districts worth watching. Three involve open seats and one is ver competitive. In CD9, Gus Bilirakis is running to succeed his father and name recognition will probably be enough. CD13 is Katherine Harris's seat (yes, that Katherine Harris), who foolishly decided to run for the Senate, but that will likely stay in Republican hands. The aforementioned Mark Foley's actions (CD16) has likely cleared the way for a victory by Democrat Tim Mahoney. Finally, Clay Shaw may be forced into retirement as Ron Klein should send Shaw down to defeat.
Finally, Ohio. A state where Republicans have been running for cover. Governor Bob Taft is "retiring" under a cloud of scandal, Congressman Robert Ney resigned earlier this year, when he got caught up in the Abramoff scandal. Unfortunately, given all that, it may be hard for the Democrats to pick up more than one seat. The ones to watch are CD1, where Steve Chabot is running a lackluster reelection campaign, CD6, where Ted Strickland is leaving the House to run for Governor, but the seat will likely stay in democratic control. CD13 is also an open seat, where Sherrod Brown is taking on Mike DeWine for the Senate seat, but Betty Sutton should be able to keep Republican Craig Foltin at bay. The two true toss ups in Ohio are in CD 15 and 18. CD15 is incumbent Deborah Pryce against Mary Jo Kilroy. Kilroy was here, and let's hope she will be in the House come January. CD18 is Robert Ney's seat and Democrat Zack Space should be able to wrest this one away for his party.
I will update on other important House races soon as well as comment on the Governor's races around the country. But for now, pin me to the wall and I will scream the following projection:
Let's start with a brief history lesson. The House of Representatives (or the Lower House) is made up of 435 members, distributed among the 50 states based on population. As a result, California, Texas, and New York have the largest Congressional delegations, while smaller or sparsely populated states (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming) have the minimum, one at-large delegate. House members are elected to two-year terms and the entire House is up for election at the same time (unlike the Senate, which is elected in thirds). So, technically, the entire House could change every two years - but never happened and never will. House seats are generally safe and rarely competitive and many times not contested. It is not unusual for House members to serve for more than 20 years. House districts are also usually drawn to favorite a particular candidate or party. This is known as "Gerrymandering" and is named for a Massachusetts Governor (and signer of the Declaration of Independence) Elbridge Gerry.
The current composition of the House is 230 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent (Socialist Bernie Sanders (VT), who is leaving the House to run for the Senate this year), and three vacancies: Bob Menendez (D-NJ), who was appointed to fill Jon Corzine's Senate seat when Corzine was elected Governor; Tom Delay (R-TX), who resigned over ethics violations, and most recently, Mark Foley (R-FL), who abruptly resigned last week over allegations of salacious emails with a Congressional page.
Many projections show 190 seats safe for the Democrats with 17 leaning Democrat and 189 seats safe for the Republicans and 21 leaning Republican. For all of you that like math, how many seats does that leave? That's right! 18 seats are considered toss ups. To be in the majority, a party needs (more math) 218 seats. Let's take a look at the chances of the Democrats pulling this off shall we? Keys to the win? Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, and Ohio. These states by far, pose the best chances for Democrats to unseat Republican incumbents.
In Pennsylvania, four districts are being targeted, CD6, CD7, CD8, and CD10. All have Republican incumbents in a state that is most certainly trending Democrat. Many pundits believe that only Jim Gerlach in CD6 will fall to Lois Murphy (which I agree with), but I believe that Curt Weldon in CD7 will lose to Joe Sestak. I don't think that Mike Fitzpatrick will lose in CD8, but Don Sherwood may not be able to stop the wave of democratic victories that will sweep across the state in November and he will lose to Christopher Carney.
Connecticut has five congressional districts. Three of the seats are held by Republicans and two by Democrats. After Election Day, look for only one to be left standing. In CD2, which covers the entire eastern part of the state, Robert Simmons is having trouble fighting off Joseph Courtney. CD5 is looking better and better for incumbent Nancy Johnson and she may be the aforementioned lone Republican in the delegation. In CD4, Christopher Shays is almost certain to go down to defeat to Diane Farrell. Those moderate Republicans are a dying breed, evidently (See Rhode Island and Senator Chafee).
In Florida, there are four districts worth watching. Three involve open seats and one is ver competitive. In CD9, Gus Bilirakis is running to succeed his father and name recognition will probably be enough. CD13 is Katherine Harris's seat (yes, that Katherine Harris), who foolishly decided to run for the Senate, but that will likely stay in Republican hands. The aforementioned Mark Foley's actions (CD16) has likely cleared the way for a victory by Democrat Tim Mahoney. Finally, Clay Shaw may be forced into retirement as Ron Klein should send Shaw down to defeat.
Finally, Ohio. A state where Republicans have been running for cover. Governor Bob Taft is "retiring" under a cloud of scandal, Congressman Robert Ney resigned earlier this year, when he got caught up in the Abramoff scandal. Unfortunately, given all that, it may be hard for the Democrats to pick up more than one seat. The ones to watch are CD1, where Steve Chabot is running a lackluster reelection campaign, CD6, where Ted Strickland is leaving the House to run for Governor, but the seat will likely stay in democratic control. CD13 is also an open seat, where Sherrod Brown is taking on Mike DeWine for the Senate seat, but Betty Sutton should be able to keep Republican Craig Foltin at bay. The two true toss ups in Ohio are in CD 15 and 18. CD15 is incumbent Deborah Pryce against Mary Jo Kilroy. Kilroy was here, and let's hope she will be in the House come January. CD18 is Robert Ney's seat and Democrat Zack Space should be able to wrest this one away for his party.
I will update on other important House races soon as well as comment on the Governor's races around the country. But for now, pin me to the wall and I will scream the following projection:
- Democrats 220 - Republicans 215
Sunday, October 01, 2006
The United States Senate
I have been watching closely the events leading up to the 2006 midterm elections. Just yesterday, it appeared the Democrats moved one seat closer to taking over the house, when Representative Mark Foley resigned his seat in Congress under allegations he engaged in improper correspondence with a former page. It now looks like democratic challenger Tim Mahoney will take the seat for the Democrats.
But today, I want to look at some of the Senate races around the country. The Republicans are defending 15 seats of their 55. Tennessee is an open seat for the Republicans, with the retirement of Majority Leader Bill Frist. The Democrats have 18 seats of their total 45 to defend, including three open seats, with Paul Sarbanes (MD), Mark Dayton (MN), and Jim Jeffords (VT) retiring.
Let's look at the Republicans first. Most pundits are calling a total of seven seats safe for the Republicans. Dick Lugar in Indiana is running unopposed, and the other six cruising to reelection: Olympia Snowe (ME), Trent Lott (MS), John Ensign (NV), Kay Bailey Hutchinson (TX), Orrin Hatch (UT), and Craig Thomas (WY). Add John Kyl (AZ) to the safe column as he continues to hide in the shadow of John McCain and will easily win reelection.
Of the remaining seven seats, the first to look at is the Commonwealth of Virginia. George Allen, he of the cowboy boots, the confederate flag, and now, the yarmulke, is stumbling through his race against former Reagan Secretary of the Navy, Jim Webb. This race is fun to watch as Allen is hoping his reelection will propel him into a run for the presidency in two years. I think that ship has sailed. I really think that Webb has a chance to send Allen home and this race will tighten in the next few weeks. It's not over. But for now, the edge is Allen's.
In Tennessee, the retirement of Frist has brought the former mayor of Chattanooga, Bob Corker into the race against House Representative Harold Ford. Ford is trying to become the first black senator from the South since Reconstruction. I think he is going to do it. This race has been flying under the radar and it is definitely one to watch. I like Ford over Corker.
The other five seats all look like they could be democratic pickups. In Missouri, Jim Talent looks like he will lose his seat to Democratic challenger, Claire McCaskill. Tune in to Meet the Press next Sunday see these two debate. Mike DeWine is facing an uphill battle against Democratic House member Sherrod Brown and the Republican establishment has abandoned the middle of the road Republican Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island after helping him secure the nomination. Expect him to lose to Sheldon Whitehouse. The final two are Pennsylvania (Rick Santorum) and Montana (Conrad Burns). Burns is a surprising loss for the Republicans but expect Jon Tester to become the Junior Senator from Montana. In Pennsylvania, Santorum is way too far right for the democratic Pennsylvania and Bob Casey should be able to partake in the Democratic swell in the state.
This result would give the Democrats the seats they need to be in the majority, a total of 52 seats. But why are the Democrats worried? New Jersey, for one. Jon Corzine, who was elected Governor of New Jersey last year, appointed House Member Robert Menendez to fill out his term. Menendez is now running for a full term of his own. His opponent is Thomas Kean, Jr., the son of the former governor and co-chairman of the 9/11 Commission. Polls in the state are showing the two neck and neck. New Jersey politics are notoriously nasty and this race will most certainly go down to the wire. Watch closely.
Eleven of the seats the Democrats are defending are considered solidly democratic. The Dean of the Senate, Robert Byrd is poised to win another term as the Senior Senator from West Virginia. He will become the longest serving Senator and the oldest Senator at some point in his next term. The other ten contests are: Herb Kohl (WI), Hillary Clinton (NY), Jeff Bingaman (NM), Kent Conrad (ND), Ted Kennedy (MA), Daniel Akaka (HI), Bill Nelson (FL), Tom Carper (DE), Joe Lieberman (CT), and Dianne Feinstein (CA), who are all expected to cruise to victory.
In Vermont, the retirement of Independent Jim Jeffords is giving the opportunity for Socialist Bernie Sanders to run for the Senate. Sanders has pledged to caucus with the Democrats if elected and is expected to win the three way race in Vermont. Three of the other five races are all leaning toward the democratic candidates. In Washington, Maria Cantwell is expected to win reelection. Ben Nelson (NE) and Debbie Stabenow (MI) are also keeping ahead of their Republican opponents.
The final two are open seats for the Democrats. Maryland, where Paul Sarbanes is retiring, pits Congressman Ben Cardin against Lt. Governor Michael Steele, who may or may not like puppies. Steele is expected to do well, particularly with the minority population, but Cardin should emerge victorious in the heavily democratic Maryland. In Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar is facing Congressman Mark Kennedy and Klobuchar should retain the seats for the Democrats from the retiring Mark Dayton.
Gut Check Prediction - today, October 1 - Democrats 52, Republicans 48.
But today, I want to look at some of the Senate races around the country. The Republicans are defending 15 seats of their 55. Tennessee is an open seat for the Republicans, with the retirement of Majority Leader Bill Frist. The Democrats have 18 seats of their total 45 to defend, including three open seats, with Paul Sarbanes (MD), Mark Dayton (MN), and Jim Jeffords (VT) retiring.
Let's look at the Republicans first. Most pundits are calling a total of seven seats safe for the Republicans. Dick Lugar in Indiana is running unopposed, and the other six cruising to reelection: Olympia Snowe (ME), Trent Lott (MS), John Ensign (NV), Kay Bailey Hutchinson (TX), Orrin Hatch (UT), and Craig Thomas (WY). Add John Kyl (AZ) to the safe column as he continues to hide in the shadow of John McCain and will easily win reelection.
Of the remaining seven seats, the first to look at is the Commonwealth of Virginia. George Allen, he of the cowboy boots, the confederate flag, and now, the yarmulke, is stumbling through his race against former Reagan Secretary of the Navy, Jim Webb. This race is fun to watch as Allen is hoping his reelection will propel him into a run for the presidency in two years. I think that ship has sailed. I really think that Webb has a chance to send Allen home and this race will tighten in the next few weeks. It's not over. But for now, the edge is Allen's.
In Tennessee, the retirement of Frist has brought the former mayor of Chattanooga, Bob Corker into the race against House Representative Harold Ford. Ford is trying to become the first black senator from the South since Reconstruction. I think he is going to do it. This race has been flying under the radar and it is definitely one to watch. I like Ford over Corker.
The other five seats all look like they could be democratic pickups. In Missouri, Jim Talent looks like he will lose his seat to Democratic challenger, Claire McCaskill. Tune in to Meet the Press next Sunday see these two debate. Mike DeWine is facing an uphill battle against Democratic House member Sherrod Brown and the Republican establishment has abandoned the middle of the road Republican Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island after helping him secure the nomination. Expect him to lose to Sheldon Whitehouse. The final two are Pennsylvania (Rick Santorum) and Montana (Conrad Burns). Burns is a surprising loss for the Republicans but expect Jon Tester to become the Junior Senator from Montana. In Pennsylvania, Santorum is way too far right for the democratic Pennsylvania and Bob Casey should be able to partake in the Democratic swell in the state.
This result would give the Democrats the seats they need to be in the majority, a total of 52 seats. But why are the Democrats worried? New Jersey, for one. Jon Corzine, who was elected Governor of New Jersey last year, appointed House Member Robert Menendez to fill out his term. Menendez is now running for a full term of his own. His opponent is Thomas Kean, Jr., the son of the former governor and co-chairman of the 9/11 Commission. Polls in the state are showing the two neck and neck. New Jersey politics are notoriously nasty and this race will most certainly go down to the wire. Watch closely.
Eleven of the seats the Democrats are defending are considered solidly democratic. The Dean of the Senate, Robert Byrd is poised to win another term as the Senior Senator from West Virginia. He will become the longest serving Senator and the oldest Senator at some point in his next term. The other ten contests are: Herb Kohl (WI), Hillary Clinton (NY), Jeff Bingaman (NM), Kent Conrad (ND), Ted Kennedy (MA), Daniel Akaka (HI), Bill Nelson (FL), Tom Carper (DE), Joe Lieberman (CT), and Dianne Feinstein (CA), who are all expected to cruise to victory.
In Vermont, the retirement of Independent Jim Jeffords is giving the opportunity for Socialist Bernie Sanders to run for the Senate. Sanders has pledged to caucus with the Democrats if elected and is expected to win the three way race in Vermont. Three of the other five races are all leaning toward the democratic candidates. In Washington, Maria Cantwell is expected to win reelection. Ben Nelson (NE) and Debbie Stabenow (MI) are also keeping ahead of their Republican opponents.
The final two are open seats for the Democrats. Maryland, where Paul Sarbanes is retiring, pits Congressman Ben Cardin against Lt. Governor Michael Steele, who may or may not like puppies. Steele is expected to do well, particularly with the minority population, but Cardin should emerge victorious in the heavily democratic Maryland. In Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar is facing Congressman Mark Kennedy and Klobuchar should retain the seats for the Democrats from the retiring Mark Dayton.
Gut Check Prediction - today, October 1 - Democrats 52, Republicans 48.
37 days and counting
On my other blog, I frequently comment on politics. I am a political junkie. I love talking about politics. I am involved in Democratic politics in Maryland, where I live. I am watching very closely the races around the country and have decided to start this blog to follow the 2006 midterm elections and then get an early start on the 2008 presidential contest.
There are a number of sites out there that are handicapping the races around the country and I will use this site to focus people on the important races and perhaps get them more involved in politics. We can only be successful at implementing change if it starts with us! Watch the links at the right so you can check out the races where you live.
Let's start by making sure you are registered to vote! In most states, you have plenty of time to get your registration in. Additionally, most states allow you to register to vote when you renew your driver's license. Here are instructions on how to register in Maryland. "Now VOTE damn you!" - John Adams to Edward Rutledge, 1776.
There are a number of sites out there that are handicapping the races around the country and I will use this site to focus people on the important races and perhaps get them more involved in politics. We can only be successful at implementing change if it starts with us! Watch the links at the right so you can check out the races where you live.
Let's start by making sure you are registered to vote! In most states, you have plenty of time to get your registration in. Additionally, most states allow you to register to vote when you renew your driver's license. Here are instructions on how to register in Maryland. "Now VOTE damn you!" - John Adams to Edward Rutledge, 1776.
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