Presidential Polls Update

With the two Conventions in the rear view mirror - the sprint is on for the final two months. Unless you live in a swing state, you will likely be left alone. But this race is going to be close and it will come down to the wire. It is inconceivable that anyone can not vote in this election - the stakes are too high. But they will. And then there are of course the crazies who will vote and God help us from those people.

One the up side, there are no polls that show Obama losing the Electoral Vote. Every single one shows him ahead. Of the various polls that I look at, two of them have him with enough EVs to carry the election, that is he has more than 270. I will believe it when I see it on November 4 (although it is sure to be November 5 by the time we know). I also fear for a 269-269 tie, there are just too many mathematical calculations that make it possible. But again, that works for Obama, for the Democrats hold enough of the delegations in the House and the Senate to carry the day for him.

Here's a good site that aggregates several of the polls into one graph.

The popular vote is a different story. It is incredibly tight, and it may indeed come down to a case where Obama loses the popular vote but wins the election in the Electoral College. Yeah, like that ever happens - oh, wait.

Fasten your seat belts folks, it's going to be a very bumpy couple of weeks.

The Race to the Finish

I haven't forgotten about you. It is just there is so much information and sometimes it is a little disheartening. Over on my regular blog, I will shortly be posting about the incredible importance of this upcoming election. I will get some poll / prediction numbers here soon.

For now, in case you have been under a rock somewhere, it's Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin. And for the most part - the race is dead even. May God have mercy on us.

Barack and Roll

While we sit on the edge of our seats waiting for the announcement of Obama's running mate, here is something to amuse you.

Orrin Hatch For Kennedy

Sad news that Ted Kennedy will likely miss the Democratic Convention.

His friend in the Senate, Republican Orrin Hatch wrote a song for the Senior Senator from Massachusetts. It's a little melancholy. It may make an appearance at the convention, along with a video that is being produced to honor Kennedy.

Click to hear the song.

Here's some audio from Kennedy's 1980 speech to the convention, after he conceded the nomination to Jimmy Carter.

Do I Go to This Movie?

Or is it just going to make me mad?

W - the Movie, by Oliver Stone.

Really? You Sure It's Not Because We're Just Ready?

You're right. We may not be. Actor Dennis Haysbert has gone on the record to state that his role as President David Palmer in "24" may have paved the way for Barack Obama.

Really, Dennis? Because there had never been a black president portrayed on TV or in the movies before?

You Could Really Say that Bush Stinks!

I love the people of California. A question has qualified for the November ballot on whether or not to rename a sewage treatment plant for the 43rd President of the United States. Here's the story from CNN. Vote early, vote often people.

To the Left, Always to the Left, Never to the Right

Regardless of what happens in November, our next President will be left handed. In fact, since 1977 and the ascension of Gerald Ford to the presidency, the presidency has been held by a left hander with the exception of Jimmy Carter and the current occupant.

From Marginal Revolution:

Ford, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Gore, and now Obama and McCain are all left-handed. Call it chance or availability bias, but I'm still wondering. Read more here, and thanks to Martin Weil for the pointer. Here's one on-line discussion. Here is a brief survey on Wikipedia. It is my general view that left-handers have higher genetic variance in a number of dimensions, so they should be over-represented in many different kinds of extreme situations, including the Presidency.

It is a good day to be a lefty. Over on my regular blog, I have been detailing the Presidents. Perhaps I should make note of their "handedness."

The Democratic Race in Eight Minutes

following up on the "Democratic Race in Seven Minutes." Boy what a difference a minute makes.

Congratulations Donna Edwards

Donna Edwards handily won her seat in Congress on Tuesday. She had defeated Albert Wynn in a primary and in the definition of sour grapes, promptly resigned his seat. A special bill was signed by Governor O'Malley, to allow for this special election. Edwards will face off again against her same opponent in November, this time with the benefit of incumbency.

I've had her sign on my lawn since early this year. Go Donna!

And the ads of today

From my friend ADR's blog.

Ah, the ads of yore

There's a lot to talk about now that the long primary battle is over. I have a number of posts ready to queue up but let's start with a campaign commercial that you will likely never see again. It only aired briefly during the 1964 campaign and its creator, Tony Schwartz, died on June 14.

So You Want to Be President

Better brush up on your negative ads.

From McSweeneys

Equal Time: Who's the Republican VP

Some interesting choices here in this list.

The GOP Veep Sweepstakes

Somebody's Going to Be Sent to the Woodshed

Really, is anyone surprised? Well, alright, maybe if you are clueless to start with . . .

McClellan's tell all book rankles Bush White House

No. Really, He's Old

And here is an entire blog devoted to telling you who or what is younger than John McCain.

Some of the things from the blog:

1. FM Radio
2. Keith Richards
3. Superman
4. Mount Rushmore
5. Both of Barack Obama's parents (and they're dead now)
6. Bugs Bunny
7. 49 of the 50 US Governors (thanks Ruth Ann Minner - D, DE)
   
8. The Golden Gate Bridge
9. The TV Dinner
10. Scrabble
    

Because You Don't Care About Anyone But Yourself?

Why I Continue to Run - Hillary Rodham Clinton

Democratic VP Spot Open Thread

From the 2008 Democratic Convention blog.

Who Will Be the VP for Obama?

When Obama Wins . . .

click here for lots of options

The Democratic Race in Seven Minutes

and you know it hasn't been heaven . . .