Only 648 Days Until the Election!

The title of this blog comes from the cover of Time Magazine's February 5, 2007 issue. The issue is full of stories about the extraordinary presidential race already underway. It reminds us this is the first election since 1928 that no incumbent President or Vice President is on a primary ballot. It points out that we might conceivably elect the first woman, the first African American, the first Latino, or the first Mormon.

The magazine also announces the creation of the Time Election Index, which will be periodically updated as the candidates popularity ebb and flow over the election season. The index plots a candidates support among voters against how much they presume to know about the candidate. The index currently puts the front runners as Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats.

Speaking of Clinton, she campaigned in Iowa this weekend and performed admirably. It marks the first time a Clinton has campaigned in the Midwest battleground in some time. Bill Clinton wrote off Iowa in 1992 and did not campaign there as an incumbent in 1996.

The issue also points out the 8 Keys to the Campaign:

• How the Iraq War Scrambles Party Lines - where else do Chuck Hagel and Joe Biden agree?
• Raising Cash - Clinton's announcement to forgo public financing puts the bar out of sight of most, meaning that candidates will need to raise about $2 million a week to remain competitive through the campaign.
• The Religion Question - Are we ready for a Mormon? Do we need another conservative Christian? What of the Republicans who don't espouse the typical religious beliefs of the party? Which Democrat will stop ducking the gay marriage question?
• Read All About It! - At least half of the candidates out there have best sellers.
• What About That Guy? - Both Al Gore and Newt Gingrich are waiting in the wings to see what happens. Newt reminds us all that John Kennedy waited until January 1960 before announcing his candidacy for president.
• The men behind the curtains - Political talent is being snapped up left and right. Will there be anyone left? Are the operatives hooking their carts to the right horse?
• The Blogosphere - There are a lot of us out there and many of the candidates do their own blogging. Howard Dean showed us the power of the Internet and it will only become more powerful in the next two years.
• Wait, don't tell me. That's, um, you know, that Senator . . . - Three House members, a bunch of Senators, several Governors. Can't tell the players without a scorecard. Get yer programs here!

It's going to be a long season / campaign / year. Hold on tight!

January - A Busy Month!

It's only January 22, and we have had a flurry of candidates getting into the race. Storming into the race and out in front are the two Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Over the weekend, Senator Sam Brownback announced his candidacy. Governor Bill Richardson takes aim at the Hispanic vote by announcing the formation of his exploratory committee.

A news report tonight on the Jim Lehrer News Hour contained a quote that candidates will need to raise nearly $2 million a week over the next year to stay viable. It is the first time since 1928 there is no sitting president or vice president in the field, hence the plethora of candidates.

It is still too soon to tell who the nominee will be and whether it will even be one of the current candidates or a dark horse not yet being discussed.

Democrats in:

• Joe Biden (Sen.-DE) - announced he is running but no formal candidacy announcement yet.
• Hillary Rodham Clinton (Sen.-NY) - announced her candidacy on the Internet, realizing the power of that medium. But can she win?
• Christopher Dodd (Sen.-CT) - announced candidate with little appeal outside of his native Connecticut. Could be a good veep for a candidate outside the Northeast, like . . .
• John Edwards (former Sen.-NC) - the former VP candidate in 2004 has remade himself as a populist and as the "Anti-Hillary." It could work to his advantage.
• Mike Gravel (former Sen.-VA) - who? Gravel represented Alaska in the House and was front and center during the Watergate issues. Since relocating to Virginia, he is largely unnoticed in the field.
• Dennis Kucinich (Rep.-OH) - A candidate in 2004, he believes the Democrats are not advancing the anti-Iraq agenda enough. Not likely to be a contender.
• Barack Obama (Sen.-IL) - filed his paperwork for his committee this month and will announce in February. Can he stop the Hillary onslaught?
• Bill Richardson (Gov.-NM) - a candidate I firmly believe can win the presidency.
• Tom Vilsack (former Gov.-IA) - restricted by term limits, he announced his candidacy the day after Election Day 2006. Could be a VP candidate.

Republicans in:

• Sam Brownback (Sen.-KS) - the choice of conservative candidates, he could keep the Republicans to the right.
• Jim Gilmore (former Gov.-VA) - no, really. Jim Gilmore? for President?
• Rudy Giuliani (former Mayor-NYC) - the 9/11 icon could make the Republicans worry about the message he brings to the party.
• Duncan Hunter (Rep.-CA) - a House Member with one issue to run on, the military.
• John McCain (Sen.-AZ) - the front runner, if he runs.
• Mitt Romney (former Gov.-MA) - sometimes conservative, sometimes liberal, Mitt is an enigma, and that's dangerous.
• Tom Tancredo (Rep.-CO) - another House member with one issue, but this one is immigration. He won't go quietly.
• Tommy Thompson (former Gov.-WI) - also a former member of the Bush Cabinet, he may show up on VP short lists, but that's about all.

Representative Tancredo slips in under the radar

Representative Tom Tancredo (R-CO) has filed papers to form a presidential exploratory committee. It was not an unexpected move, but Tancredo is another longshot for the nomination. He joins another House member, Duncan Hunter (R-CA) in the race for the Republican nomination.

As I said when Hunter got in the race, the last House member to go to the Presidency was James Garfield in 1880. With the star power on the Republican side (Giuliani, McCain), Hunter and Tancredo can only hope to get their issues out there and keep the Republicans on message.

Iowa and New Hampshire are but a year away!

Senator Dodd for President

Christopher Dodd, the senior Senator from Connecticut has decided to run for president. Okay, but why is the next question. He flirted with the idea in 2004 and now thinks the time has come for him to "get out of the bleachers and play on the floor." Too bad that his pickup game is going to be a little short from the other players on the floor.

But I wish him luck. Dodd is a good Northeast liberal. And we all know how successful they are in winning the presidency. What does he have going for him? A prominent father who was also a Senator from Connecticut. Remind you of anyone else?

Good luck, Chris. I like you but I don't see you making it past Super Tuesday.

The 110th Congress Convenes

History was made today, when the 110th Congress of the United States convened. Members of the House of Representatives elected Nancy Pelosi of California to serve as Speaker of the House. She becomes the first woman ever to hold that position.

The leadership of the House was also announced on the floor:

• Majority Leader - Steny Hoyer (MD)
• Majority Whip - James Clyburn (SC)
• Minority Leader - John Boehner (OH)
• Minority Whip - Roy Blunt (MO)

Over on the Senate side, the new Senators were sworn in by Vice President Cheney.

A new day dawned in American politics as the Democrats took control of the entire Congress for the first time in 12 years. Let's hope they can pull it off, or it is likely to be a short majority.

Mitt Romney Joins the Field

After the nation bade farewell to the 38th President, Gerald Ford, outgoing Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney announced the formation of an exploratory committee in preparation for a run for the Republican nomination for President in 2008.

This has been expected for some time and he joins a field still looking for a front runner. John McCain is still considered the front runner, but, while exploring a run, I continue to maintain that he will ultimately decide not to run.

Romney's religion may be a hurdle for him and he is not well liked by the conservative wing of the party. However, he has proved a good administrator in Massachusetts. Romney also has a good political pedigree. His father was George Romney, Republican Governor of Illinois and unsuccessful presidential candidate in 1968. Romney joins several others in the Republican party: who have already declared their candidacies or have formed exploratory committees:

• Senator Sam Brownback (KS)
• Rudy Giuliani
• Congressman Duncan Hunter (CA)
• Senator John McCain (AZ)
• Secretary Tommy Thompson