The Political Point

One Year Later - A Loud Message

2010-01-20T22:46:00.000-05:00

[cross-posted from Order from Chaos]

One year ago, I trudged out into the cold frosty morning here in Washington, DC to be a part of history, at the inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. While I was unable to get to my appointed station, I got home and watched the bulk of it on television (where it was warmer and there were donuts).

Yesterday evening, in a loud scream from the American electorate, specifically those in the Bay State, a message was sent to President Obama, "we're in trouble, and now, so are you." There is a lot of finger pointing going around today as to what happened, but congratulations to Scott Brown, the Senator-elect from Massachusetts. Although don't be surprised if some of the men listed below drop by and visit with you to make sure it all goes well. There have been some titanic figures in the Class I Senate seat from Massachusetts, and they may just want to make sure you are up to the task. Let's hope so.

On this day in 1961, people gathered for another historic inauguration, the first Catholic President of the United States, John F. Kennedy, who had also held the historic Senate seat that was delivered to Scott Brown last night, when he defeated Attorney General Martha Coakley. He was young, telegenic, and he delivered a stirring, moving address. (If you are interested, you can follow @JFK_1960, as the JFK Library commemorates the fiftieth anniversary of Kennedy's pursuit of the Democratic nomination for president. Here are some excerpts of JFK's inaugural address, which have some messages on how the President and the Congress might be able to proceed from this point.

"We observe today not a victory of party but a celebration of freedom - symbolizing an end as well as a beginning - signifying renewal as well as change."

"The world is very different now . . . And yet the same revolutionary beliefs for which our forebears fought are still at issue around the globe - the belief that the rights of man come not from the generosity of the state but from the hand of God."

"Let the word go forth from this time and place, to friend and foe alike, that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans - born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage - and unwilling to witness or permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this nation has always been committed, and to which we are committed today at home and around the world."

"This much we pledge - and more."

"To those old allies whose cultural and spiritual origins we share, we pledge the loyalty of faithful friends. United there is little we cannot do in a host of cooperative ventures. Divided there is little we can do - for we dare not meet a powerful challenge at odds and split asunder."

"So let us begin anew - remembering on both sides that civility is not a sign of weakness, and sincerity is always subject to proof. Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate."

"Let both sides explore what problems unite us instead of belaboring those problems which divide us."

"All this will not be finished in the first one hundred days. Nor will it be finished in the first one thousand days, nor in the life of this Administration, nor even perhaps in our lifetime on this planet. But let us begin."

"And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you--ask what you can do for your country."

United States Senators from Massachusetts (Class I):

Tristram Dalton, 1789-1791
George Cabot, 1791-1796
Benjamin Goodhue, 1796-1800
Jonathan Mason, 1800-1803
John Quincy Adams, 1803-1808
James Lloyd, 1808-1813
Christopher Gore, 1813-1816
Eli P. Ashmun, 1816-1818
Prentiss Mellen, 1818-1820
Elijah H. Mills, 1820-1827
Daniel Webster, 1827-1841
Rufus Choate, 1841-1845
Daniel Webster, 1845-1850
Robert C. Winthrop, 1850-1851
Robert Rantoul, Jr, 1851
Charles Sumner, 1851-1874
William B. Washburn, 1874-1875
Henry L. Dawes, 1875-1893
Henry Cabot Lodge, 1894-1924
William M. Butler, 1924-1926
David I. Walsh, 1926-1947
Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr., 1947-1953
John F. Kennedy, 1953-1960
Benjamin A. Smith, 1960-1962
Edward M. Kennedy, 1962-2009
Paul G. Kirk, 2009-2010
Scott Brown (Senator-elect), 2010-

Almanac Quiz Answers

2009-09-18T22:21:00.000-05:00

Here are the answers to last week's quiz:

1. Who represents the wealthiest congressional district?

(b) Gerry Connolly (D-VA)

2. Who represents the congressional district with the highest percentage of Hispanics?

(a) Silvestre Reyes (D-TX)

3. Even though he won by six percentage points, this incumbent senator spent the most money in 2008. Name the senator.

Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

4. How many women in Congress have given birth while in office? (Bonus question! How many can you name? Hint: five current members, three former.)

Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-CA)
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD)
Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Sen. Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D-AR)
former Rep. Susan Molinari (R-NY)
former Rep. Enid Greene Waldholtz (R-UT)
former Rep. Yvonne Braithwaite Burke (D-CA)

5. Which congressional race was closest percentage-wise?

(b) Perriello vs. Goode - 727 votes

6. Which three former members of Congress were defeated in their party primaries in 2008?

David Davis (R-TN)
Chris Cannon (R-UT)
Albert Wynn (D-MD)

7. Which U.S. representative is a former governor?

Mike Castle (R-DE)

8. Which freshman senator became his state's senior senator in 2009 after spending just 16 days as junior senator?

Mark Udall (D-CO)

9. Who is the youngest senator?

42-year-old Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)

10. Who is the longest-serving Republican senator?

33-year veteran Richard Lugar (R-IN)

11. Who are the two Buddhists in Congress?

Hank Johnson (GA) and Mazie Hirono (HI).

How Big a Political Junkie are You?

2009-09-11T22:16:00.000-05:00

The National Journal's 2010 Almanac of American Politics, is out and full of facts sure to satisfy every political junkie. Here's a quiz to sharpen your political acumen. Answers next week.

Who represents the wealthiest congressional district? (a) Steve Israel of New York. (b) Gerry Connolly of Virginia. (c) Anna G. Eshoo of California
Who represents the congressional district with the highest percentage of Hispanics? (a) Silvestre Reyes of Texas. (b) Ruben Hinojosa of Texas. (c) Lucille Roybal-Allard of California.
Even though he won by six percentage points, this incumbent senator spent the most money in 2008. Name the senator.
How many women in Congress have given birth while in office? (Bonus question! How many can you name? Hint: five current members, three former.)
Which congressional race was closest percentage-wise? (a) Fleming vs. Carmouche, Louisiana. (b) Perriello vs. Goode, Virginia. (c) McClintock vs. Brown, California.
Which three former members of Congress were defeated in their party primaries in 2008?
Which U.S. representative is a former governor?
Which freshman senator became his state's senior senator in 2009 after spending just 16 days as junior senator?
Who is the youngest senator?
Who is the longest-serving Republican senator?
Who are the two Buddhists in Congress?

2010: The Governors

2009-08-22T16:10:00.001-05:00

Before we look at the Senate - which in one race took a dramatic turn this week, let's look at where we are with the gubernatorial races, two of which will be decided in November.

The two 2009 races are in Virginia and New Jersey. In the Garden State, it appears that Jon Corzine might be toast. Lord knows he has plenty of money to throw at this race, but one might want to get used to saying Governor Chris Christie. Christie is a United States Attorney and is benefiting from a bad economy that is pulling Corzine's numbers below a salvageable level.

In the Commonwealth of Virginia, the selection of Creigh Deeds as the nominee for the Democrats has made the race a tossup. Deeds was the most unknown of the candidates in the democratic field. Bob McDonnell on the Republican side had no opposition and the race will very likely come down to the wire.

As to the 2010 races, here's the current thinking.

Switching Parties

California - Schwarzenegger (R) is term limited and a Democratic victory is expected.
Florida - Crist (R) is running for the Senate and the Governor's Mansion in Tallahassee is likely to be redecorated in blue.
Kansas - When Kathleen Sebelius (D) relocated to Washington, her Lt. Gov. stepped up. But he doesn't want the job. This one goes to the Republicans
Hawaii - Linda Lingle (R) is term limited and the state is too democratic for a Republican to win.
Oklahoma - Brad Henry (D) is out and it is surprising a Democrat made it two terms there.
Rhode Island - See above, but substitute Don Carcieri (R) for Linda Lingle.
Tennessee - Phil Bredesen (D) is popular, but not enough to save the governorship for his party.
Wyoming - See Oklahoma. Dave Freudenthal (D) is term-limited.

Too Close to Call

Arizona - When Janet Napolitano came to Washington, she left the state in the care of someone certifiable. It's unclear whether the Republican Brewer can be shoved aside.
Minnesota - Tim Pawlenty (R) wants to be President. Then he shouldn't be from Minnesota.
Michigan - Jennifer Granholm (D) is out and the scramble has not produced a clear favorite yet.
Nevada - Governor Gibbons (R) is in a tough fight.
Pennsylvania - Ed Rendell is leaving office and though the attention will be on the Senate race, this should be a doozy.

Razor Thin Margins

Georgia - I suppose there is something to be said for a narrow Republican advantage in Georgia, but in the lack of a stronger Democratic candidate, the statehouse stays red.
Ohio - The bellweather state has a good governor in Ted Strickland (D), and he should be able to hold on to the statehouse.
Vermont - Jim Douglas (R) is running again and despite the Green Mountain's state blue trend, he should be able to pull it off.
Wisconsin - Jim Doyle (D) recently announced he would not run for reelection, but the state should be able to produce a new Democratic governor.

Cruising to Victory

Alabama - Bob Riley (R) is leaving the office, but (to quote "My Cousin Vinny") "Its Ala f***ing Bama.")
Connecticut - In the Governor's race, anyway, Jodi Rell (R) is clear favorite
Illinois - With Blago now a memory, Pat Quinn is doing a fine job and should get the job outright.
Iowa - Chet Culver (D) is a lock (for now)
Massachusetts - Deval Patrick (BFF of the President) should cruise to reelection
New Mexico - If I lived there, I'd be voting for Val Kilmer - wouldn't that be cool?
New York - Paterson (D) may be in trouble from Andrew Cuomo, but either way, the Governor should be a Democrat.
South Carolina - surprisingly Mark Sanford is nearly out of a job (if that doesn't happen sooner than the election), and if he keeps talking, this race could become competitive.
South Dakota - Mike Rounds (R) is term limited but it won't matter.
Utah - no problem for the Republicans.

Not Worrying at All

Alaska - Parnell (R), Sarah? Sarah who?
Arkansas - Beebe (D)
Idaho - Otter (R)
Maryland - O'Malley (D)
Nebraska - Heineman (R)
New Hampshire - Lynch (D)
Oregon - Kulongoski (D) is term limited, but safe for the Dems
Texas - either Perry (R) or Hutchinson (R). These two will bloody themselves, but whoever emerges from the primary will win

2016: The Contenders

2009-07-27T20:10:00.000-05:00

I know, I know. Let's not start down this road again, right? The never ending presidential campaign. Well something from the CNN Political Ticker caught my eye the other day. And with Sarah Palin in the race for 2012, who knows what could happen.

(CNN) – It appears that two high ranking members of the Obama administration haven't entirely ruled out seeking the presidency again.

First, Vice President Joe Biden said last month that a third White House bid in 2016 — when he would be 73 — is not something he has completely closed the door on.

"No, I won't. I won't rule that out. No," the vice president said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

Now, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who battled President Obama for the 2008 Democratic nomination, told a Thai television station she doesn't know if she will have White House ambitions in the future, though quickly made clear it's not something she has given thought to.

"I don't know, but I doubt very much that anything like that will ever be part of my life," Clinton, who would be 68 in 2016, told the television station, according to the Associated Press.

"I tried to be the president and was not successful," she added.

George Bush on Facebook

2009-04-21T21:18:00.002-05:00

found here:

George W. Bush Joins Facebook: Day One

George is now friends with Condi Rice, Karl Rove, Sean Hannity, Antonin Scalia and Tom DeLay

George W. Bush is sayin' howdy! My first post---wOOt! What's up? - 3:08pm February 23

Scooter Libby at 3:09pm February 23

Why didn't you pardon me, you prick?

Sarah Palin at 3:09pm February 23

Thanks but no thanks. I'd rather pal around with terrorists.

Mitch McConnell at 3:10pm February 23

Now I can say it---you really sucked.

Tom DeLay invited you to join the Bitter Aging Texans Group

George is now friends with Dana Perino, Tony Blair and King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud

Grover Norquist at 3:11pm February 23

I told you to reduce the size of the government so you could drown it in the bathtub. You grew the size of the government, toweled it off, then blew up the bathtub. Your dad's right--you got hit with a special kind of dumbstick.

Scooter Libby, Sarah Palin and Mitch McConnell like this comment

Condi Rice at 3:12pm February 23

Friends 4evuh!!! {{{Mr. President}}}

Dick Cheney at 3:13pm February 23

Why didn’t you pardon Scooter you prick???

Scooter Libby likes this comment

General Colin Powell (Ret.) sent you a bucket of virtual maggots.

Elizabeth Dole at 3:14pm February 23

Here---have a hot cuppa STFU

Bob Dole likes this comment

Michael Steele at 3:15pm February 23

Facebook is the only party in town, baby. Mainly because you KILLED OURS!!!

John McCain wants to send you a virtual can of coal slag and a bag of rusty nails

Norm Coleman just threw a shoe at you.

King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud at 3:35pm February 23

Where is the Scrabble page? I wish to play Scrabble now.

Scooter Libby likes this comment

President Obama Does Late Night with Jay

2009-03-20T08:43:00.001-05:00

Last night, President Obama became the first sitting president to appear on the Tonight Show, pushing his economic package.

Republicans in Hiding

2009-02-19T23:11:00.000-05:00

The Republicans insist they will be back in power soon. I won't hold my breath. For the 2010 election, several Republican Senators are picking up their marbles and going home, making the slate another uphill climb for the RSCC.

Here's a list of the 2010 races.

Alabama: Richard Shelby will be reelected unless he decides to retire - GOP Hold
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski should also be reelected, unless Spunky goes after her, either way it's a GOP Hold
Arizona: John McCain could have been beaten by Janet Napolitano, but she's gone to Washington, so he'll be back, unless his health problems change his mind for him - GOP Hold
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln will be back easily - DEM Hold
California: Barbara Boxer may have to fend off Ahnuld, but she's safe - DEM Hold
Colorado: Special election to replace Ken Salazar. His successor, Michael Bennet, will have to show some results to keep the seat, or not, as Colorado is trending blue. DEM Hold
Connecticut: Chris Dodd is not inclined to leave the Senate, even if faced with a challenge from Republican Governor Jodi Rell - DEM Hold
Delaware: This is Joe Biden's seat, which went to former Biden Chief of Staff, Ted Kaufman. Kaufman has announced that he will not run in 2010 and it is expected that Biden's son Beau will run. If he does, he'll win easily - DEM Hold
Florida: With Republican Mel Martinez retiring, this seat is ripe for flipping. Jebby is contemplating a run, but if the Democrats can find a top-tier candidate, it won't matter - Toss-up / DEM Pickup
Georgia: Johnny Isakson keeps under the radar and should easily be reelected in this conservative state - GOP Hold
Hawaii: Daniel Inouye will be 86 in 2010 but is expected to run. He is likely to face a stiff challenge from Governor Linda Lingle, which will make this a marquee race. Inouye should have the edge, though - DEM Hold
Idaho: Mike Crapo is expected to run, but has had some health problems. Even if he retires, the GOP has this seat locked up - GOP Hold
Iowa: Chuck Grassley is a mean old man, but he's not going anywhere - GOP Hold
Illinois: Blago appointee Burris has not said if he intends to run on his own. He has never won an election despite several attempts. If he runs, he will likely face a primary challenge making it harder to hold the seat, possibly. Toss-up / DEM Hold
Indiana: Evan Bayh will return to the Senate for a third term - DEM Hold
Kansas: Sam Brownback is retiring from the Senate, likely to run for Governor. The current Governor, Kathleen Sebelius may run for the Senate. If she doesn't run, another Democrat would have a tough time flipping this seat, for now - Toss-up
Kentucky: Baseball Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Bunning may not run again, if he doesn't there is a good chance the right Democrat can pick off this seat, also - Toss-up
Louisiana: David Vitter has had some troubles of late, perhaps you remember? No, don't worry, his opponent will bring it up . . . a lot. Toss-up to DEM Favored
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski is not interested in leaving the Senate and based on her recent contests, no one is going to make her - DEM Hold
Missouri: Kit Bond has opted to call it a career in the Senate. Russ Carnahan (D), the Secretary of State and son of Senators Mel and Jeanne is in the race. All bets are off - Toss-up, but more likely DEM favored.
Nevada: I'm not a fan of Harry Reid, but he's not going anywhere - DEM Hold
New Hampshire: In a state that is turning more blue by the day, Judd Gregg stepped into the political poo and has now decided not to run in 2010. This seat should flip - DEM Pickup
New York: Both Senator Schumer and Hillary Clinton's replacement, Kristen Gillibrand, will be up for reelection. Both should win easily - DEM Holds
North Carolina: You think Richard Burr is worried? He should be. Elizabeth Dole got beat by Kay Hagan. Somebody's coming for him, too. DEM Favored
North Dakota: The red state keeps electing Democratic Senators. That shouldn't change and Byron Dorgan should return - DEM Hold
Ohio: George Voinovich is not very popular in the Buckeye state. He's packing it in making the race a definite Toss-up
Oklahoma - Would there were a good Democrat to run against Tom Coburn. But there's not, so he will be back. REP Hold.
Oregon - Ron Wyden is a quiet Senator and sure to win reelection. DEM Hold
Pennsylvania - Arlen Specter should retire, but he says he's still in it to win. This will be a marquee race - Toss-up.
South Carolina - In this state, Democrats are hard to come by. Jim DeMint should cruise to reelection - REP Hold
South Dakota - John Thune has been running around the Senate with a big target on his back ever since he unseated Tom Daschle. Can the Democrats hit the bullseye this time? Toss-up to REP favored.
Utah - Robert Bennett is the other Senator from Utah (after the singing Orrin Hatch). A conservative conservative, he won't lose here. REP Hold
Vermont - Patrick Leahy is entrenched in the Senate. He can stay as long as he likes. DEM Hold.
Washington - Patty Murray, the Senator Mom in tennis shoes, has slowly risen through the ranks of the Democratic leadership. She should be easily reelected - DEM hold.
Wisconsin - Russ Feingold (D) should easily be sent back to the Senate from the fine folks living in America's Dairyland. DEM Hold.

So You Want to be Governor?

2009-02-10T21:11:00.001-05:00

In 2008 there were gubernatorial contests. Really. there will be a number of contests in 2009 and 2010 as well. It was recently noted the Republicans have pinned their comeback hopes on capturing state houses in the next set of elections. Good luck with that.

Here's a rundown.

Alabama - Bob Riley (R) is term-limited, but another Republican is certain to come along and keep the red streak going.
Alaska - Governor Spunky will be up for reelection in 2010. Does she stay there or can she see the Senate from her house?
Arizona - The new Governor of Arizona is crazy. Right-wing Fundamentalist Republican crazy. Let's hope for a switch back to blue.
Arkansas - Mike Beebe (D) is doing just fine in a Southern state that likes to elect Democrats.
California - The Guvahnator is term-limited. Expect a Democrat in Sacramento, possibly Senator Diane Feinstein.
Colorado - Bill Ritter is happy in the Governor's mansion in the Mile High state.
Connecticut - sure there's some issues there. But Jodi Rell (R) is not going anywhere.
Florida - Charlie Crist (R) got passed over for VP, is he thinking Senate or another term in Tallahassee?
Georgia - Sonny Perdue (R) is also heading for the exit, but like its neighbor, Alabama, no chance for a Democratic pickup.
Hawaii - Linda Lingle (R) has been a fair to middling Governor for the Aloha state. But let's note this is our new President's home state. She can't run again and the state's going Democratic.
Idaho - Butch Otter (one of the best named Governors around) is safe in Republican-rich Potato land.
Illinois - Know who the new governor of Illinois is? His name is Pat Quinn (D) and he is doing just fine. And he surely doesn't swear as much as his predecessor.
Iowa - Chet Culver (a close second for great name governors) is doing fine as a Democrat in a state that went purple in 2008.
Kansas - Kathleen Sebelius (D), for the moment, may have missed out on a new job in the Obama Administration and she can't run again. This is a state the Republicans may be able to pick up, although scary Sam Brownback is running so anything's possible.
Maine - John Baldacci is out. It's unclear as to who will fill the void in Augusta.
Maryland - With Michael Steele having been elected chair of the RNC and former Governor Bob Ehrlich declaring he doesn't want a rematch with Martin O'Malley (D), O'Malley should cruise to a second term.
Massachusetts - Deval Patrick (D) is doing a fine job in the Bay State. He's not going anywhere (except maybe Washington if his friend the President calls)
Michigan - Jennifer Granholm (D) has been a popular governor in Michigan. But she can't run again and the Democratic field is slim. Tossup.
Minnesota - Does Tim Pawlenty (R) want to be President? Many think he should have been the vice presidential nominee for John McCain. If he wants to stay on the national stage, he is going to need to win reelection.
Nebraska - Dave Heineman (R) got his current job when Mike Johanns went to work for [former] President Bush. In this red state, he will cruise to reelection.
Nevada - Jim Gibbons is a Republican in a state that is turning purple. This race is a tossup even before he has an opponent.
New Hampshire - New Hampshire governors only serve two terms. For now, Jon Lynch is safe.
New Jersey - Jon Corzine (D) has lots of money to burn. But his approval ratings are in the toilet in the Garden State. I think he might take his marbles and go home. A 2009 race.
New Mexico - Bill Richardson had to withdraw as Commerce Secretary-designate after some wrongdoings surfaced. He is term-limited, but would have trouble winning anyway.
New York - David Patterson moved into the Governor's Mansion after Eliot Spitzer had a little personal trouble. He is likely to win election in his own right.
Ohio - Ted Strickland was considered for Obama's running mate. He was left behind in the Buckeye State and is likely to win reelection.
Oklahoma - It's the reddest state in the country. Brad Henry (D) is out after two terms and a Democrat will likely not be selected.
Oregon - Ted Kulongoski (D) is term limited but the state should stay blue at the state level.
Pennsylvania - Ask most Pennsylvanians and they will tell you that Ed Rendell (D) bought his way to Harrisburg. That may hurt democratic chances to hold this governorship (he's also term-limited).
Rhode Island - Another state that has no business having a Republican in the governor's mansion - especially when its Don Carcieri. He's done and its a Democratic pickup.
South Carolina - Mark Sanford (R) is term-limited, but the party should keep control of the state house.
South Dakota - Mike Rounds (R) is out after two terms. Another tossup.
Tennessee - Phil Bredesen is another rare Democrat in a red state and heading for the door. This race is also a tossup.
Texas - Rick Perry (R) has no intention of vacating the premises. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) may have something to say about that.
Vermont - Jim Douglas (R) can run again for Governor, where the governors only serve two year terms. But can he win in a state turning more and more purple/blue?
Virginia - In the marquee race of 2009, Tim Kaine (D) is leaving Richmond after only one term (that's all Virginia governors are allowed - it's ridiculous). I think Democrats can hold it, but it will be tough as the current Democratic candidate is Terry McAuliffe, who has all that Clinton baggage with him.
Wisconsin - Jim Doyle (D) is likely to win a second term in America's Dairyland.
Wyoming - Another Democrat in a sea of Red. Dave Freudenthal is term limited and this state should revert back to the GOP.

Are You In This Picture?

2009-01-27T21:06:00.000-05:00

I was supposed to be. But that didn't work out so well.

This picture is a composite of 220 different images. There is full zoom potential so you can see that Clarence Thomas was evidently not moved by the event. He's sleeping. Maybe that was Roberts' problem, maybe he was still waking up and therefore messed up the most important lines of the day.

Is Obama President?

2009-01-22T23:56:00.000-05:00

Yes. And this website will help you keep track.

And now that the oath has been re-administered - it's all good.

In case you can't get here . . .

2009-01-16T21:25:00.002-05:00

The Obama Inauguration in Legos . . . from the Guardian (UK)

And if you want a bit of history to see what Obama will be compared to on Tuesday at about 12:05pm . . . Hulu has some recent inaugural speeches here.

Plan Accordingly

2008-12-30T22:29:00.003-05:00

My caveat is still, if I have a ticket, and the weather is cooperative, I'm going.

Inauguration schedule released

also, here.

The Class III Senators

2008-11-30T21:00:00.000-05:00

There have been pundits that have stated that while it does not look like the Democrats will get to 60 seats this year, it looks just as favorable in 2010 to increase the majority. Here is the current list of Class III Senators as of today.

Bayh, Evan - (D - IN) - um, yeah, that's a Dem hold.
Bennett, Robert F. - (R-UT) - and that would be a Rep hold.
Bond, Christopher S. - (R – MO) - beatable, but not likely.
Boxer, Barbara - (D- CA) - Dem hold
Brownback, Sam - (R - KS) - likely retiring and good chance for a takeover.
Bunning, Jim - (R - KY) - Sure, he's in the Baseball Hall of Fame, but he's still crazy. And Republican Senators in Kentucky can be (almost) beaten.
Burr, Richard - (R - NC) - recently labeled as the most ineffective Senator. And the new Junior Senator is a Democrat. Like that trend.
Coburn, Tom - (R - OK) - He's over there in the crazy corner with Bunning. But he's also the head of the RSCC. Unfortunately, likely safe.
Crapo, Mike - (R – ID) - Safe.
DeMint, Jim - (R - SC) - Rumors are he's disillusioned. Maybe he leaves?
Dodd, Christopher J. - (D - CT) - The Senior Senator will surely be back for another term.
Dorgan, Byron L. - (D - ND) - maybe retiring.
Feingold, Russell D. - (D - WI) - a good, liberal, Democratic hold.
Grassley, Chuck - (R - IA) - and crazy makes three. But not leaving, perhaps.
Gregg, Judd - (R - NH) - Rep hold.
Inouye, Daniel K. - (D - HI) - old, but a Dem hold.
Isakson, Johnny - (R - GA) - finishing up his first term, does he get another?
Leahy, Patrick J. - (D - VT) - another of the last liberals in the Senate. Don't go, Pat.
Lincoln, Blanche L. - (D - AR) - Dem hold.
Martinez, Mel - (R - FL) - I'd like to think he's toast.
McCain, John - (R-AZ) - burnt toast
Mikulski, Barbara A. - (D - MD) - no signs of retirement there.
Murkowski, Lisa - (R - AK) - Senator Palin?
Murray, Patty - (D - WA) - The Senator in tennis shoes is comfortable where she is.
(OPEN) - (D- DE) - Paging Beau Biden, Paging Beau Biden. You're seat's all warm and ready for you. Come and get it.
(OPEN) - (D - IL) - That would be President Obama's seat. Um, yeah, that's a Dem hold.
(OPEN) - (D - NY) - Where the Secretary of State had been? Senator Clinton, perhaps? No, the other one. That guy who used to be President?
Reid, Harry - (D - NV) - He has not been my favorite Majority Leader. But he's got a good majority. Let's see what he does with it.
Salazar, Ken - (D - CO) - With Colorado's trend, he's safe
Schumer, Charles E. - (D - NY) - wait, is that a microphone? He's safe.
Shelby, Richard C. - (R-AL) - He might be leaving. But not a state good for takeover.
Specter, Arlen - (R - PA) - He's old. The cancer's back. Ed Rendell is thinking of running. The best shot at a flip.
Thune, John - (R - SD) - wait, I stand corrected.
Vitter, David - (R - LA) - never mind, I meant this one.
Voinovich, George V. - (R - OH) - leaving by choice or election? you pick.
Wyden, Ron - (D - OR) - Dem hold in a Dem state

So What's Next?

2008-11-28T19:15:00.001-05:00

There is a habit in my wife's family when we are relaxing enjoying a wonderful meal, we will begin to focus on the next meal. So because we are that bad, here's a list of what's coming up for the Governors in 2009 and 2010.

In 2009, 2 states will hold gubernatorial elections: Tim Kaine will be looking for work in Virginia (in one of the stupidest laws ever - Governors serving only one term) and Jon Corzine will be looking to return to Trenton despite some pretty high unfavorables.

In 2010, 36 states will have gubernatorial elections, of which 20 are currently held by Democrats and 16 by Republicans. This is the current list.

Alabama: Bob Riley (R) - term limited and I don't see this state house switching parties.
Alaska: Sarah Palin (R) - hey, whose this woman? Think she's got a future in the party?
Arkansas: Mike Beebe (D) - a rarity, a Democrat in a Southern State House, can he hold it?
Arizona: Janet Napolitano - she's term limited, likely going to Homeland Security. If not, she will crush McCain in his attempt to get reelected to the Senate.
California: Arnold Schwarzenegger - again, term limited. Does he want to be Senator? Perhaps that Constitutional amendment will have passed and he can be VP to Sarah Palin in 2012?
Colorado: Bill Ritter (D) - In the continuing bluing of Colorado, he stays put.
Connecticut: Jodi Rell (R) - Somebody else who could run against Lieberman - an actual Republican.
Florida: Charlie Crist (R) - Didn't he get married? Is he thinking of running for President in 2012? Who knows? Who cares?
Georgia: Sonny Perdue (R) - Georgia will elect a new governor to replace the term limited Perdue. Max Cleland, is that your phone?
Hawaii: Linda Lingle (R) - Also term limited. A Republican Governor is a very blue state. Go figure.
Illinois: Rod Blagojevich (D) - Anyone want to bet he makes it to 2010? Rod, don't answer the door, it's probably the police. And they're not here to protect you anymore.
Idaho: Butch Otter (R) - Whatever. You want fries with that governor?
Iowa: Chet Culver (D) - Chet and Butch, are we going to elect Governor Spanky next?
Kansas: Kathleen Sebelius (D) - Term limited and perhaps heading for the Supreme Court someday?
Maine: John Baldacci (D) - A fine Governor for the Pine Tree State.
Maryland: Martin O'Malley (D) - He's been a disappointment, but for the most part, he is a Democrat.
Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D) - Will his friend the President, come to get him for something good?
Nebraska: Dave Heineman (R) - I'm thinking reelection.
New Hampshire: John Lynch (D) - pretty happy in Concord.
New York: David Paterson (D) - Announced around the time he took over for Eliot Spitzer that he would run for a full term in 2010.
Michigan: Jennifer Granholm (D) - She's term limited, but the new President may find something for her to do.
Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty (R) - You have to think that someone is thinking bigger and better from the Gopher State, yes?
Nevada: Jim Gibbons (R) - something tells me there is not much of a future for him.
Ohio: Ted Strickland (D)
Oklahoma: Brad Henry (R) - term limited and in a very red state, sure to continue with an R in this state house.
Oregon: Ted Kulongoski (D) - term limited, but likely to stay in the blue column.
Pennsylvania: Ed Rendell (D) - term limited, may be eyeing the Senate (running against Arlen Spector. TV Commentator Chris Matthews is rumored to have his eye on state wide office in the Keystone State.
Rhode Island: Donald Carcieri (R) - term limited. A small state and a very democratic one - Change is coming.
South Carolina: Mark Sanford (R) - term limited.
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) - term limited.
Texas: Rick Perry (R) - maybe Shrub can get his old job back.
Tennessee: Phil Bredesen (D) - A Democrat in a red state, wasn't that Al Gore's problem?
Vermont: Jim Douglas (R) - He's hoping that Patrick Leahy decides it's time to retire. But he would probably be content to stay in Montpelier, or maybe not.
Wisconsin: Jim Doyle (D) - pass the cheddar, he's staying.
Wyoming: Dave Freudenthal (D) - term limited.

The First 100 Days

2008-11-26T19:11:00.002-05:00

Something to look forward to . . . something to measure President Obama by (God doesn't that just look wonderful?)

The First 100 Days (the Good Sheet)

Depicts the first 100 days of the modern presidents (starting with FDR)

A cartoon

2008-11-22T13:20:00.000-05:00

from my sister-in-law.

A New Day is Here

2008-11-06T00:37:00.001-05:00

Here on the pulse of this new day
You may have the grace to look up and out
And into your sister's eyes, into
Your brother's face, your country
And say simply
Very simply
With hope
Good morning

- Maya Angelou, January 20, 1993

I went to bed last night overwhelmed. My wife and I drank champagne and toasted our president-elect and dreamed of a better country for our children. We reveled in the moment, unable to comprehend what had taken place. We were both moved to tears on several occasions last night - I again felt tears of joy when I saw this editorial cartoon in today's Washington Post and after hearing the commentator Colbert I. King on WTOP News this morning talk about growing up in a capital city where he had to enter buildings by the back door and now the Obama family will move into the Executive Mansion through the front door.

"If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer . . .

We are, and always will be, the United States of America . . .

But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to. It belongs to you. It belongs to you . . .

This is your victory . . .

And I know you didn't do this just to win an election. And I know you didn't do it for me . . .

This is our moment . . .

This is our time, to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can."
- Barack Obama, November 4, 2008

When I awoke this morning, there was a sense that, "was it really true?" Had we elected a man to lead us in a new direction and get us believing in hope again? Yes, we did. Some of my readers have commented and questioned the validity of the two candidates in this race. My response is yes, neither of them are perfect, but we have elected the best person out there right now. Barack Obama is the real thing. He has to be.

The road ahead is long, the hill we must climb is steep. There is no perfect solution to the ills that are before us. Barack Obama was elected as an agent of change and he will do everything in his power, which with Democratic majorities in the House and Senate might be a great deal, to make this country a great nation again.

I had pestered a family member to vote, which she finally did. Prior to this she had not voted for President since Gerald Ford. I tried to explain to her that yes there were issues with the way this country votes, but we finally had a candidate that might actually be able to do something about the system. If not a first-term United States Senator, an African-American, and a Democrat who should cruise to election in the anti-Republican wave that was building all summer, then who? Change is coming and many of us will benefit.

She tried to tell me that her vote didn't matter - and yet her state has not yet been called. Don't tell me that every vote doesn't matter. If one person feels that way - there are others and that's how apathy gets out of control. She lives in a state where the black population is overjoyed at the idea of a black president, but this election was not about race. To a point. Yes, we have elected a black man, who defeated a white man, but first and foremost, we have elected a man who truly believes in the future of this country.

As President-elect Obama has said on many occasions, we are not a nation of red states and blue states, we are the United States. He will have to govern that way. He must surround himself with the right people (Rahm Emanuel is a good first pick) for the big tasks that lie ahead. He must be careful to avoid the pitfalls that befell Jimmy Carter in 1976, who arrived in Washington as an outsider and he and his advisors could not contain the Washington mentality.

President-elect Obama must also beware of lofty ideals that could derail some initiatives. He is given to high oratory. There is surely an international crisis out there waiting to test the new leader (Joe Biden wasn't wrong). But possibly the biggest danger may be the President-elect himself. Although he received a significant mandate (no Democrat had been elected with more than 50.1% of the vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976), winning traditionally Republican states and securing a large margin in the Electoral College, he is sure to face resistance from many sides. Change may be a good thing, but in general, people hate it. President-elect Obama will need to temper his enthusiasm to try and do too much, too fast.

One of my regular readers has left me comments with her criticisms of the current political climate and the lack of an acceptable candidate to her views. I grant her that our two party system is broken and that we are in need of real change in the way we elect our leaders and the party structure which we subscribe to. But as I said earlier, we have found someone who, first is willing to take this job right now, and two, was truly the best choice we had.

It is up to him to see if he can surround himself with the right people and truly lead this country in a new direction. Hope is alive, change is coming. Our wish and dream should be that Barack Obama can "Let America Be America Again." May God bless and protect our President-elect and continue to look over our country.

Let America be America again.
Let it be the dream it used to be.
Let it be the pioneer on the plain
Seeking a home where he himself is free.
(America never was America to me.)

Let America be the dream the dreamers dreamed -
Let it be that great strong land of love
Where never kings connive nor tyrants scheme
That any man be crushed by one above.
(It never was America to me.)

O, let my land be a land where Liberty
Is crowned with no false patriotic wreath,
But opportunity is real, and life is free,
Equality is in the air we breathe.
(There's never been equality for me,
Nor freedom in this "homeland of the free.")

Say, who are you that mumbles in the dark?
And who are you that draws your veil across the stars?

I am the poor white, fooled and pushed apart,
I am the Negro bearing slavery's scars.
I am the red man driven from the land,
I am the immigrant clutching the hope I seek -
And finding only the same old stupid plan
Of dog eat dog, of mighty crush the weak.

I am the young man, full of strength and hope,
Tangled in that ancient endless chain
Of profit, power, gain, of grab the land!
Of grab the gold! Of grab the ways of satisfying need!
Of work the men! Of take the pay!
Of owning everything for one's own greed!

I am the farmer, bondsman to the soil.
I am the worker sold to the machine.
I am the Negro, servant to you all.
I am the people, humble, hungry, mean -
Hungry yet today despite the dream.
Beaten yet today - O, Pioneers!
I am the man who never got ahead,
The poorest worker bartered through the years.

Yet I'm the one who dreamt our basic dream
In the Old World while still a serf of kings,
Who dreamt a dream so strong, so brave, so true,
That even yet its mighty daring sings
In every brick and stone, in every furrow turned
That's made America the land it has become.
O, I'm the man who sailed those early seas
In search of what I meant to be my home--
For I'm the one who left dark Ireland's shore,
And Poland's plain, and England's grassy lea,
And torn from Black Africa's strand I came
To build a "homeland of the free."
The free?

Who said the free? Not me?
Surely not me? The millions on relief today?
The millions shot down when we strike?
The millions who have nothing for our pay?
For all the dreams we've dreamed
And all the songs we've sung
And all the hopes we've held
And all the flags we've hung,
The millions who have nothing for our pay -
Except the dream that's almost dead today.

O, let America be America again -
The land that never has been yet -
And yet must be - the land where every man is free.
The land that's mine - the poor man's, Indian's, Negro's, ME -
Who made America,
Whose sweat and blood, whose faith and pain,
Whose hand at the foundry, whose plow in the rain,
Must bring back our mighty dream again.

Sure, call me any ugly name you choose -
The steel of freedom does not stain.
From those who live like leeches on the people's lives,
We must take back our land again,
America!

O, yes,
I say it plain,
America never was America to me,
And yet I swear this oath -
America will be!

Out of the rack and ruin of our gangster death,
The rape and rot of graft, and stealth, and lies,
We, the people, must redeem
The land, the mines, the plants, the rivers.
The mountains and the endless plain -
All, all the stretch of these great green states -
And make America again!
Let America be America Again
- Langston Hughes

Did You Take the Day Off?

2008-11-04T11:11:00.001-05:00

A PROCLAMATION

WHEREAS The Fourth Day of November in the year 2008 represents the long-awaited resolution to the fiercely contested Presidential election.

WHEREAS By nature of Mr. Obama’s residency and its proud Democratic tradition, the great city of Chicago finds itself squarely at the center of attention on this momentous day.

WHEREAS No municipal or government body has shown the foresight or fortitude to state what needs to be stated.

NOW THEREFORE WE, Coudal Partners, do hereby proclaim that
NO WORK be done on NOVEMBER FOURTH

WHEREAS All employees are hereby required to report for work at the regularly appointed time and subsequently spend the morning hours unfettered by any assignment or memo, conversing with coworkers and furiously surfing political blogs for the latest information.

WHEREAS It would be nice if someone brought bagels.

WHEREAS Commencing at the hour of lunch, all employees will be set free from obligation, to leave the workplace and join friends and family at places of community and conviviality.

WHEREAS An exception will be made for those employees in “battleground states” with certain disagreeable political leanings who are required to arrive at work before the polls open and work until they have closed, without a lunch break and under constant supervision.

WHEREAS For everyone else in Chicago, we will see you at Grant Park. In all other American burgs, villages and hamlets, pretty much anywhere with a television is acceptable. Bowling alleys, rec rooms, firehouses and taverns are a few suggested venues.

WHEREAS Employers not obeying this proclamation are forewarned that they will find the day without productivity or profit and in the end only earn the ire of their tireless and devoted workers.

WHEREAS By the authority vested in us by us, all employees in the U.S.A. are encouraged to forward this proclamation to their supervisors and if there is some doubt about said supervisors agreeableness to follow the guidelines stated herein they are further advised, in the great tradition of American Democracy, to take matters into their own hands and sneak out the back door at lunchtime leaving this web page open on their computer as a statement of their whereabouts and intentions.

WHEREAS Employers are also advised to allow great leniency for late arrivals on the morning of the Fifth Day of November.

Signed and Stated by Coudal Partners, 31 October 2008

"Bob Rumsen's [John McCain's] Problem is He Can't Sell It!

2008-11-04T09:48:00.000-05:00

Vote and Then Go Get Some Ice Cream

2008-11-04T08:55:00.001-05:00

from Ben and Jerry's.

But no sprinkles for you if you don't do the right thing and vote for change.

Don't Listen to Me

2008-11-03T20:46:00.000-05:00

Look at the pictures and decide for yourself. Please. Change is Coming. Be a Part of it.

Are They On to Something?

2008-11-02T21:51:00.000-05:00

One could get very tired of polls and projections, punditry, etc. Well there is one group out there that has picked the winner in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections. Yep, the students of Weekly Reader. C'mon - do it for the kids.

So the Big Guy Wins, Right?

2008-11-01T20:48:00.001-05:00

So says the New York Times. But everyone expected them to endorse Obama anyway . . .

537 Votes

2008-10-31T08:00:00.000-05:00

That was the difference in Florida in 2000. So don't vote, it surely won't matter, will it?

See more funny videos and funny pictures at CollegeHumor.

It's Good Enough for Opie, Richie, Andy, and the Fonz

2008-10-29T20:31:00.001-05:00

so it's good enough for me. Vote on November 4

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

When John McCain gets desparate

2008-10-27T20:53:00.000-05:00

Wait, hasn't that happened already?

Finished Carving Your Pumpkins Yet?

2008-10-25T20:44:00.001-05:00

Here are some ideas

I've got mine . . .

Humor from the Candidates

2008-10-23T20:44:00.000-05:00

From the Al Smith dinner in New York last week:

First John McCain

Followed by Barack Obama

269-269

2008-10-21T23:03:00.000-05:00

Don't say I didn't warn you. I have had this scenario in the back of my mind for some time now. But it's OK, because the Democrats win if it goes to the House. Probably.

Overtime? from DemConWatch.

But we're not going to worry about this, right?

I Like How He Thinks

2008-10-15T20:42:00.001-05:00

from Daily Kos

I'm going to watch the debate now.

One of my favorites

2008-10-13T17:28:00.002-05:00

This Kennedy commercial from 1960. It's not as good as the Sinatra one, but it's close.

Whither the Bellweather

2008-10-10T23:00:00.000-05:00

People are quick to point out that Missouri has voted for the winning presidential candidate since like the dawn of time. But it would appear that Barack Obama is looking to redraw the map. Remember 270 is the magic number.

The Rothenberg Political Report looked at the Bellweather states.

The New Yorker Votes for Change

2008-10-07T20:46:00.000-05:00

Won't you?

The New Yorker endorses Barack Obama.

Things I Try not to Think About

2008-10-06T22:53:00.000-05:00

Most sports stars are Republicans . . . From Daniel Drezner (who got it from ESPN) by way of Marginal Revolution . . .

John McCain drew a record audience for his acceptance speech, and based on the distribution of viewers, part of what put him over the top was holdover viewers from the New York Giants/Washington Redskins game.

Could it be that Matt Yglesias is in the minority and that football-watchers are more likely to lean Republican? I don’t know — but that’s the best segue I can think of to link to Paula Lavigne’s fascinating ESPN.com article on which sports figures are backing which presidential candidates. The article is very long well-researched, but here are the tidbits I found interesting:
Professional athletes and executives have given $445,334 to the two nominees — 55.8 percent to McCain and 44.2 percent to Obama, according to ESPN analysis of figures from the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group.
The difference this election is that pro sports donors are more divided. In the past two presidential elections, the Democratic nominee has struggled to muster at most 16 percent of pro sports donations.
Professional sports figures have given twice as much money to all presidential candidates combined during this election than they have to candidates in each of the past two races. And almost two months of fundraising remain for the two nominees.
McCain has lots of friends in the dugout, but his biggest fans are in football. Six of McCain’s top 10 pro sports donors are with NFL teams, led by the San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans.
NBA staff topped Obama’s list of pro sports donors at $24,360.
[Rudy Giuliani] cashed in a total of $210,900 from pro sports donors, including $86,300 from NASCAR employees and drivers and $17,000 from his hometown New York Yankees.
Read the whole thing. And props to the athletes — their reasons for their various endorsements were very cogent.

Why Libertarians Should Vote for Obama

2008-10-03T22:48:00.002-05:00

We live in a two-party country. Face it. Sure there are other parties and other candidates that will be on the ballot in November. But they are not going to win. It just doesn't happen here. And it won't happen any time soon. So here's an entreaty to Libertarians to not throw away their vote, and vote for Barack Obama for President.

From Marginal Revolution:

First, war. War is the antithesis of the libertarian philosophy of consent, voluntarism and trade. With every war in American history Leviathan has grown larger and our liberties have withered. War is the health of the state. And now, fulfilling the dreams of Big Brother, we are in a perpetual war.

A country cannot long combine unlimited government abroad and limited government at home. The Republican party has become the party of war and thus the party of unlimited government.

With war has come FEAR, magnified many times over by the governing party. Fear is pulling Americans into the arms of the state. If only we were better at resisting. Alas, we Americans say that we love liberty but we are fair-weather lovers. Liberty will flourish only with peace.

Have libertarians gained on other margins in the past eight years? Not at all. Under the Republicans we have been sailing due South-West on the Nolan Chart – fewer civil liberties and more government, including the largest new government program in a generation, the Medicare prescription drug plan, and the biggest nationalization since the Great Depression. Tax cuts, the summum bonum of Republican economic policy, are a sham. The only way to cut taxes is to cut spending and that has not happened.

The libertarian voice has not been listened to in Republican politics for a long time. The Republicans take the libertarian wing of the party for granted and with phony rhetoric and empty phrases have bought our support on the cheap. Thus - since voice has failed - it is time for exit. Remember that if a political party can count on you then you cannot count on it.

Exit is the right strategy because if there is any hope for reform it is by casting the Republicans out of power and into the wilderness where they may relearn virtue. Libertarians understand better than anyone that power corrupts. The Republican party illustrates. Lack of power is no guarantee of virtue but Republicans are a far better - more libertarian - party out-of-power than they are in power. When in the wilderness, Republicans turn naturally to a critique of power and they ratchet up libertarian rhetoric about free trade, free enterprise, abuse of government power and even the defense of civil liberties. We can hope that new leaders will arise in this libertarian milieu.

You Know You Want To

2008-10-01T16:51:00.001-05:00

So please, don't make me beg. They are all doing the begging for me. Please, make sure you're registered and vote on November 4.

Saturday with the House

2008-09-27T22:42:00.001-05:00

Pollsters are currently tracking nearly sixty seats in the House that are competitive. This will be an election like no other and there is a chance for the Democrats to improve their majority in the House to near veto-proof margins. Gut check prediction? Democrats pick up 10 seats

Here's a list of some races to watch from the site, ElectoralVote.com, which qualifies "hot races" as:

The incumbent won by 2% or less in 2006
The incumbent is in the other party's territory and did not win convincingly.

AL-2 - open seat, retiring Republican - if the Democrats win this seat, which they very well might, it's going to be a very good night for the Democrats everywhere.
AL-5 - open seat, retiring Democrat - this seat should go back to the Republicans. It will come down to whether voters like the guy with the first name Parker or the guy with the last name Parker. Really, you can't make this stuff up.
AK-AL - Don Young vs. Ethan Berkowitz - Young squeaked by in his primary and most polls show him losing to Berkowitz. Dem Pickup
AZ-1 - retiring Republican - the Republican is Rick Renzi, who is leaving under a cloud. Good chance for Dem pickup.
AZ-5 - The incumbent Democrat won in a district where he shouldn't have. Expect a big fight.
AZ-8 - Another Democratic incumbent in a Republican-leaning seat. Toss-up
CA-4 - C'mon, the Democrat is Charlie Brown - can he really win?
CA-11 - The Democrat won in 2006 against a scandal-plagued Congressman. The Republican mayor of the biggest city in the district has endorsed the Democrat. Is this a Democratic year or what?
CO-4 - The Republican is not a nice woman. There I said it. And Colorado is going to go blue up and down the ticket. Dem pickup.
CT-2 - Democratic incumbent should be able to hold on.
CT-4 - Chris Shays is the last Republican in all of New England. After this election, there might not be any more.
FL-13 - This race is still undecided from 2006. The same two are at it again.
FL-15 - Retiring Republican - Republican district, but anything might happen
FL-16 - This is Mark Foley's district, captured by the Dems in 2006. The Democratic incumbent is a Christian Conservative, so he might be able to hold on.
FL-21 - Suddenly a horse race in a district held by a Republican ever since it was created. Both men are Cuban-American and it should be a fiery race.
FL-24 - Republican incumbent who has a bit of the Abramoff stink on him. The Democratic challenger is getting a lot of help from the DCCC.
GA-8 - Democrat in a Republican leaning district, so a good change for a Republican pickup
GA-12 - Another Democrat incumbent in a state likely to go Red in the national picture.
IL-8 - Democrats in Illinois should have an easy time, even in this Republican leaning district.
IL-10 - A Republican incumbent in a Democratic district in a state that is going to be the bluest on the national map.
IL-11 - Retiring Republican could lead to a Dem pickup.
IN-2 - Another race where the incumbent will have the edge and thus a Democratic hold.
IN-8 - A conservative Democrat, but a Democrat in a Republican leaning district should be good enough for the seat to stay in the blue column
IN-9 - The fourth time the two candidates have faced off. This time the Democrat is the incumbent, but the district is Republican leaning and it could flip again.
KS-2 - Incumbent Democrat who knocked off an entrenched Republican in 2006. He tried for the rematch, but lost the primary, which is good for the Democratic Congresswoman to hold the seat.
LA-6 - Currently held by a Democrat, who has been in the seat only a few months, he may only have a few more months in the seat. Rep pickup
MI-7 - Incumbent Republican who won in 2006 50 to 46, but outspent his opponent 25 to 1. Not the best return on one's investment. The DCCC and Chris Van Hollen has money to throw at this race and he might flip it. Dem pickup
MI-9 - Republican incumbent who is older than John McCain and may see his Congressional career end here. Dem pickup
MN-1 - Democratic incumbent in a slightly Republican leaning district. He should be able to hold it.
MN-3 - open seat, retiring Republican - the retirement was unexpected and the Democrats have fielded a better candidate than the Republicans. A definite toss-up
MS-1 - A Democrat in Mississippi? Hey it happened and he should be able to hold the seat for the blue guys.
MO-6 - A Republican leaning district and a Republican incumbent, but this year anything could happen. But probably not here.
NV-3 - If this state goes blue, the Republican incumbent is likely out the door also.
NH-1 - another 2006 rematch, but the Democrat has the incumbency now and should be able to hold it in a state that is likely to go blue.
NJ-3 - open seat, retiring Republican - another excellent chance for Dem pickup
NJ-7 - open seat, retiring Republican - NJ-3 is more Democratic, but this one could flip, too
NM-1 - open seat, retiring Republican - with NM trending blue and good Democrats up and down the slate, this seat should go blue. Dem pickup
NY-13 - open seat, disgraced Republican (poor Vito Fosella). Dem pickup.
NY-19 - This is the seat currently held by Orleans singer, John Hall. Is he Still the One?
NY-20 - Democratic incumbent beat a popular Republican in 2006 and the power of incumbency should be enough.
NY-24 - Democratic incumbent should be able to hold the seat
NY-25 - open seat, retiring Republican - the Democrat tried this in 2006, with the incumbent out of the picture, he should get there this time. Dem pickup
NY-26 - open seat, retiring Republican - little chance for a Dem pickup in this very conservative western NY district.
NY-29 - Another rematch from 2006 with the Republican incumbent likely to stave off the Democrat again.
NC-8 - Republican incumbent won in 2006 by less than 350 votes. This rematch has the DCCC behind the Democrat and he might pull it off this time. Dem pickup
OH-1 - Republican incumbent should be safe, but in a Democratic year, it's still a toss-up
OH-2 - A 2006 rematch, where the Republican incumbent won by less than 3000 votes.
OH-15 - open seat, retiring Republican - the Democrat who nearly unseated the incumbent is running again, and this time she should pull it off. Dem pickup
OH-16 - open seat, retiring Republican - considered a top tier race, and a toss-up
OH-18 - incumbent Democrat in a Republican leaning district, should be a close race.
OR-5 - open seat, retiring Democrat - should be held by the Democrat
PA-4 - Democrat incumbent being challenged by the woman he beat two years ago.
PA-6 - Republican incumbent in a Democratic leaning district, but a mediocre Democrat should keep the seat red.
PA-10 - Democratic incumbent who won in 2006 when the Republican got caught in a scandal. The Republicans are pushing hard for this seat.
TX-22 - Dem incumbent in Tom Delay's old seat. Best opportunity for a Rep pickup
TX-23 - Dem incumbent trying to stave off a Republican in a Republican leaning district. The Democrat has the advantage of being Hispanic, which is the majority of his constituents.
VA-11 - open seat, retiring Republican - this seat is likely to flip - Dem pickup
WA-8 - Rep incumbent has a rematch with 2006 opponent in a Dem leaning district
WI-8 - Dem incumbent who won in 2006 should be able to hold.

Jed Bartlet is my President

2008-09-23T20:27:00.000-05:00

Couldn't he be? Please?

Maureen Dowd wonders . . . courtesy of Aaron Sorkin

BARACK OBAMA knocks on the front door of a 300-year-old New Hampshire farmhouse while his Secret Service detail waits in the driveway. The door opens and OBAMA is standing face to face with former President JED BARTLET.

BARTLET Senator.

OBAMA Mr. President.

BARTLET You seem startled.

OBAMA I didn’t expect you to answer the door yourself.

BARTLET I didn’t expect you to be getting beat by John McCain and a Lancôme rep who thinks “The Flintstones” was based on a true story, so let’s call it even.

OBAMA Yes, sir.

BARTLET Come on in.

BARTLET leads OBAMA into his study.

BARTLET That was a hell of a convention.

OBAMA Thank you, I was proud of it.

BARTLET I meant the Republicans. The Us versus Them-a-thon. As a Democrat I was surprised to learn that I don’t like small towns, God, people with jobs or America. I’ve been a little out of touch but is there a mandate that the vice president be skilled at field dressing a moose —

OBAMA Look —

BARTLET — and selling Air Force Two on eBay?

OBAMA Joke all you want, Mr. President, but it worked.

BARTLET Imagine my surprise. What can I do for you, kid?

OBAMA I’m interested in your advice.

BARTLET I can’t give it to you.

OBAMA Why not?

BARTLET I’m supporting McCain.

OBAMA Why?

BARTLET He’s promised to eradicate evil and that was always on my “to do” list.

OBAMA O.K. —

BARTLET And he’s surrounded himself, I think, with the best possible team to get us out of an economic crisis. Why, Sarah Palin just said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had “gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers.” Can you spot the error in that statement?

OBAMA Yes, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aren’t funded by taxpayers.

BARTLET Well, at least they are now. Kind of reminds you of the time Bush said that Social Security wasn’t a government program. He was only off by a little — Social Security is the largest government program.

OBAMA I appreciate your sense of humor, sir, but I really could use your advice.

BARTLET Well, it seems to me your problem is a lot like the problem I had twice.

OBAMA Which was?

BARTLET A huge number of Americans thought I thought I was superior to them.

OBAMA And?

BARTLET I was.

OBAMA I mean, how did you overcome that?

BARTLET I won’t lie to you, being fictional was a big advantage.

OBAMA What do you mean?

BARTLET I’m a fictional president. You’re dreaming right now, Senator.

OBAMA I’m asleep?

BARTLET Yes, and you’re losing a ton of white women.

OBAMA Yes, sir.

BARTLET I mean tons.

OBAMA I understand.

BARTLET I didn’t even think there were that many white women.

OBAMA I see the numbers, sir. What do they want from me?

BARTLET I’ve been married to a white woman for 40 years and I still don’t know what she wants from me.

OBAMA How did you do it?

BARTLET Well, I say I’m sorry a lot.

OBAMA I don’t mean your marriage, sir. I mean how did you get America on your side?

BARTLET There again, I didn’t have to be president of America, I just had to be president of the people who watched “The West Wing.”

OBAMA That would make it easier.

BARTLET You’d do very well on NBC. Thursday nights in the old “ER” time slot with “30 Rock” as your lead-in, you’d get seven, seven-five in the demo with a 20, 22 share — you’d be selling $450,000 minutes.

OBAMA What the hell does that mean?

BARTLET TV talk. I thought you’d be interested.

OBAMA I’m not. They pivoted off the argument that I was inexperienced to the criticism that I’m — wait for it — the Messiah, who, by the way, was a community organizer. When I speak I try to lead with inspiration and aptitude. How is that a liability?

BARTLET Because the idea of American exceptionalism doesn’t extend to Americans being exceptional. If you excelled academically and are able to casually use 690 SAT words then you might as well have the press shoot video of you giving the finger to the Statue of Liberty while the Dixie Chicks sing the University of the Taliban fight song. The people who want English to be the official language of the United States are uncomfortable with their leaders being fluent in it.

OBAMA You’re saying race doesn’t have anything to do with it?

BARTLET I wouldn’t go that far. Brains made me look arrogant but they make you look uppity. Plus, if you had a black daughter —

OBAMA I have two.

BARTLET — who was 17 and pregnant and unmarried and the father was a teenager hoping to launch a rap career with “Thug Life” inked across his chest, you’d come in fifth behind Bob Barr, Ralph Nader and a ficus.

OBAMA You’re not cheering me up.

BARTLET Is that what you came here for?

OBAMA No, but it wouldn’t kill you.

BARTLET Have you tried doing a two-hour special or a really good Christmas show?

OBAMA Sir —

BARTLET Hang on. Home run. Right here. Is there any chance you could get Michelle pregnant before the fall sweeps?

OBAMA The problem is we can’t appear angry. Bush called us the angry left. Did you see anyone in Denver who was angry?

BARTLET Well ... let me think. ...We went to war against the wrong country, Osama bin Laden just celebrated his seventh anniversary of not being caught either dead or alive, my family’s less safe than it was eight years ago, we’ve lost trillions of dollars, millions of jobs, thousands of lives and we lost an entire city due to bad weather. So, you know ... I’m a little angry.

OBAMA What would you do?

BARTLET GET ANGRIER! Call them liars, because that’s what they are. Sarah Palin didn’t say “thanks but no thanks” to the Bridge to Nowhere. She just said “Thanks.” You were raised by a single mother on food stamps — where does a guy with eight houses who was legacied into Annapolis get off calling you an elitist? And by the way, if you do nothing else, take that word back. Elite is a good word, it means well above average. I’d ask them what their problem is with excellence. While you’re at it, I want the word “patriot” back. McCain can say that the transcendent issue of our time is the spread of Islamic fanaticism or he can choose a running mate who doesn’t know the Bush doctrine from the Monroe Doctrine, but he can’t do both at the same time and call it patriotic. They have to lie — the truth isn’t their friend right now. Get angry. Mock them mercilessly; they’ve earned it. McCain decried agents of intolerance, then chose a running mate who had to ask if she was allowed to ban books from a public library. It’s not bad enough she thinks the planet Earth was created in six days 6,000 years ago complete with a man, a woman and a talking snake, she wants schools to teach the rest of our kids to deny geology, anthropology, archaeology and common sense too? It’s not bad enough she’s forcing her own daughter into a loveless marriage to a teenage hood, she wants the rest of us to guide our daughters in that direction too? It’s not enough that a woman shouldn’t have the right to choose, it should be the law of the land that she has to carry and deliver her rapist’s baby too? I don’t know whether or not Governor Palin has the tenacity of a pit bull, but I know for sure she’s got the qualifications of one. And you’re worried about seeming angry? You could eat their lunch, make them cry and tell their mamas about it and God himself would call it restrained. There are times when you are simply required to be impolite. There are times when condescension is called for!

OBAMA Good to get that off your chest?

BARTLET Am I keeping you from something?

OBAMA Well, it’s not as if I didn’t know all of that and it took you like 20 minutes to say.

BARTLET I know, I have a problem, but admitting it is the first step.

OBAMA What’s the second step?

BARTLET I don’t care.

OBAMA So what about hope? Chuck it for outrage and put-downs?

BARTLET No. You’re elite, you can do both. Four weeks ago you had the best week of your campaign, followed — granted, inexplicably — by the worst week of your campaign. And you’re still in a statistical dead heat. You’re a 47-year-old black man with a foreign-sounding name who went to Harvard and thinks devotion to your country and lapel pins aren’t the same thing and you’re in a statistical tie with a war hero and a Cinemax heroine. To these aged eyes, Senator, that’s what progress looks like. You guys got four debates. Get out of my house and go back to work.

OBAMA Wait, what is it you always used to say? When you hit a bump on the show and your people were down and frustrated? You’d give them a pep talk and then you’d always end it with something. What was it ...?

BARTLET “Break’s over.”

Sunday with the Senators

2008-09-14T10:47:00.002-05:00

There is more good news for Democrats (really, where isn't there good news for the Democrats this year?) in the Senate races. As has been said all along, the Republicans are defending twice as many seats this year as the Democrats and they are poised to see their minority grow in the Upper House.

Here are the races to watch.

Alaska - Who would have ever put this race on a watch list earlier this year? Senator Ted (R) is going down it would seem. Democratic pickup.
Colorado - Senator Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge to leave after two terms. Two very strong candidates stepped in to run and the edge is going to the Democrats in the face of Rep. Mark Udall (D). Democratic pickup.
Georgia - I really want this race to go the Democratic way. I despise Saxby Chambliss. Obama will need to have HUGE coattails for Jim Martin to beat Chambliss. This is my dream race. I pray for this one but for the moment it's a Republican hold.
Louisiana - Senator Mary Landrieu (D) has been targeted although it looks like she will be safe. Democratic hold.
Maine - Senator Susan Collins (R) is one of those moderate Republicans that Democrats like to pick on, although they are useful to the Democrats. She is facing a stiff challenge from Maine's Democratic Congressman, but she should survive. Then maybe the Democrats can get her to switch parties - as there is that Senator in Connecticut who needs to be taken out back and shot. Republican hold.
Minnesota - It must be a Democratic year if Al Franken can make a serious run for the Senate. But let us remember this is a state that elected Jesse Ventura. I think Franken (D) can beat Coleman (R), but I am in the minority here. Toss up.
Mississippi - Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D). Wicker is the Senator tapped to fill out the seat of Trent Lott, who resigned last year. Ronnie Musgrove is a popular former Governor. While Thad Cochran (R) will cruise to reelection in the other Senate race, I think Wicker may lose to Musgrove. Toss up.
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen (D) is a popular former Governor. She is taking on the incumbent John Sununu (R) and most polls indicate she's got him. Democratic pickup.
New Mexico - When this race is over, there will be two Udalls in the United States Senate. Pete Domenici (R) is retiring due to illness and Congressman Tom Udall (Colorado Mark's cousin) is burying his Republican opponent. Democratic pickup.
North Carolina - MoveOn.org has targeted this race and it looks like it is beginning to have an effect. Elizabeth Dole (R) is facing Kay Hagen (D), the State Treasurer. This race shouldn't be close, but Dole has been largely ineffective and she is on the ropes. For now it is a pure Toss up.
Oregon - this is a mirror race to the one waged on the East Coast last cycle against Lincoln Chafee (R-RI). Senator Gordon Smith frequently flies under the radar and is a very moderate Republican Senator. The Democrats really want this, but I don't see it happening. Republican hold.
Virginia - The Commonwealth is poised to send its second Democratic Senator, this time in the persona of former Governor Mark Warner. How much do you want to bet that some of the signs out there just say Warner, making some Virginia Republican voters they are voting for John (the retiring Senator) and not Mark? Democratic pickup.

So what does that make the numbers? If ALL the chips fall the right way, the Democrats hit the magic number of 60 (but that also means holding onto Lieberman, which Harry Reid may not want to do). Realistically, a prediction? Democrats 57 Republicans 43 (one independent, Sanders of VT with the Dems and Lieberman of CT with the Reps).

Presidential Polls Update

2008-09-10T22:52:00.001-05:00

With the two Conventions in the rear view mirror - the sprint is on for the final two months. Unless you live in a swing state, you will likely be left alone. But this race is going to be close and it will come down to the wire. It is inconceivable that anyone can not vote in this election - the stakes are too high. But they will. And then there are of course the crazies who will vote and God help us from those people.

One the up side, there are no polls that show Obama losing the Electoral Vote. Every single one shows him ahead. Of the various polls that I look at, two of them have him with enough EVs to carry the election, that is he has more than 270. I will believe it when I see it on November 4 (although it is sure to be November 5 by the time we know). I also fear for a 269-269 tie, there are just too many mathematical calculations that make it possible. But again, that works for Obama, for the Democrats hold enough of the delegations in the House and the Senate to carry the day for him.

Here's a good site that aggregates several of the polls into one graph.

The popular vote is a different story. It is incredibly tight, and it may indeed come down to a case where Obama loses the popular vote but wins the election in the Electoral College. Yeah, like that ever happens - oh, wait.

Fasten your seat belts folks, it's going to be a very bumpy couple of weeks.

The Race to the Finish

2008-09-09T21:37:00.003-05:00

I haven't forgotten about you. It is just there is so much information and sometimes it is a little disheartening. Over on my regular blog, I will shortly be posting about the incredible importance of this upcoming election. I will get some poll / prediction numbers here soon.

For now, in case you have been under a rock somewhere, it's Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin. And for the most part - the race is dead even. May God have mercy on us.

Barack and Roll

2008-08-19T22:49:00.002-05:00

While we sit on the edge of our seats waiting for the announcement of Obama's running mate, here is something to amuse you.

Orrin Hatch For Kennedy

2008-08-09T22:13:00.001-05:00

Sad news that Ted Kennedy will likely miss the Democratic Convention.

His friend in the Senate, Republican Orrin Hatch wrote a song for the Senior Senator from Massachusetts. It's a little melancholy. It may make an appearance at the convention, along with a video that is being produced to honor Kennedy.

Click to hear the song.

Here's some audio from Kennedy's 1980 speech to the convention, after he conceded the nomination to Jimmy Carter.

Do I Go to This Movie?

2008-08-06T22:09:00.002-05:00

Or is it just going to make me mad?

W - the Movie, by Oliver Stone.

Really? You Sure It's Not Because We're Just Ready?

2008-07-27T21:33:00.000-05:00

You're right. We may not be. Actor Dennis Haysbert has gone on the record to state that his role as President David Palmer in "24" may have paved the way for Barack Obama.

Really, Dennis? Because there had never been a black president portrayed on TV or in the movies before?

You Could Really Say that Bush Stinks!

2008-07-25T20:42:00.000-05:00

I love the people of California. A question has qualified for the November ballot on whether or not to rename a sewage treatment plant for the 43rd President of the United States. Here's the story from CNN. Vote early, vote often people.

To the Left, Always to the Left, Never to the Right

2008-07-23T20:15:00.000-05:00

Regardless of what happens in November, our next President will be left handed. In fact, since 1977 and the ascension of Gerald Ford to the presidency, the presidency has been held by a left hander with the exception of Jimmy Carter and the current occupant.

From Marginal Revolution:

Ford, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Gore, and now Obama and McCain are all left-handed. Call it chance or availability bias, but I'm still wondering. Read more here, and thanks to Martin Weil for the pointer. Here's one on-line discussion. Here is a brief survey on Wikipedia. It is my general view that left-handers have higher genetic variance in a number of dimensions, so they should be over-represented in many different kinds of extreme situations, including the Presidency.

It is a good day to be a lefty. Over on my regular blog, I have been detailing the Presidents. Perhaps I should make note of their "handedness."

The Democratic Race in Eight Minutes

2008-06-18T22:01:00.001-05:00

following up on the "Democratic Race in Seven Minutes." Boy what a difference a minute makes.

Congratulations Donna Edwards

2008-06-18T21:42:00.002-05:00

Donna Edwards handily won her seat in Congress on Tuesday. She had defeated Albert Wynn in a primary and in the definition of sour grapes, promptly resigned his seat. A special bill was signed by Governor O'Malley, to allow for this special election. Edwards will face off again against her same opponent in November, this time with the benefit of incumbency.

I've had her sign on my lawn since early this year. Go Donna!

And the ads of today

2008-06-18T21:41:00.002-05:00

From my friend ADR's blog.

Ah, the ads of yore

2008-06-18T21:37:00.002-05:00

There's a lot to talk about now that the long primary battle is over. I have a number of posts ready to queue up but let's start with a campaign commercial that you will likely never see again. It only aired briefly during the 1964 campaign and its creator, Tony Schwartz, died on June 14.

So You Want to Be President

2008-05-28T22:17:00.000-05:00

Better brush up on your negative ads.

From McSweeneys

Equal Time: Who's the Republican VP

2008-05-28T22:16:00.001-05:00

Some interesting choices here in this list.

The GOP Veep Sweepstakes

Somebody's Going to Be Sent to the Woodshed

2008-05-28T20:11:00.001-05:00

Really, is anyone surprised? Well, alright, maybe if you are clueless to start with . . .

McClellan's tell all book rankles Bush White House

No. Really, He's Old

2008-05-28T19:50:00.000-05:00

And here is an entire blog devoted to telling you who or what is younger than John McCain.

Some of the things from the blog:

FM Radio
Keith Richards
Superman
Mount Rushmore
Both of Barack Obama's parents (and they're dead now)
Bugs Bunny
49 of the 50 US Governors (thanks Ruth Ann Minner - D, DE)
The Golden Gate Bridge
The TV Dinner
Scrabble

Because You Don't Care About Anyone But Yourself?

2008-05-27T21:22:00.003-05:00

Why I Continue to Run - Hillary Rodham Clinton

Democratic VP Spot Open Thread

2008-05-27T21:20:00.002-05:00

From the 2008 Democratic Convention blog.

Who Will Be the VP for Obama?

When Obama Wins . . .

2008-05-13T22:23:00.001-05:00

click here for lots of options

The Democratic Race in Seven Minutes

2008-05-07T22:00:00.001-05:00

and you know it hasn't been heaven . . .

While We Wait

2008-04-24T21:28:00.002-05:00

Yes, it goes on. Pennsylvania did not end it as many of us hoped. It's on to Indiana and North Carolina.

And yes I know it's been a while. I'm just so tired of it all. I'll try to be better. Maybe there will be some live blogging during the conventions, at least the Democratic one is sure to be interesting.

While we (and Senator McCain) wait, here's a little reading on the current Oval Office Occupant, from Harper's Magazine.

George Bush is the Worst President Ever.

It's a Math Problem

2008-03-09T22:23:00.001-05:00

Stop. Please. I don't care about the phone and whose there to pick it up. You people don't answer your own phones anyway. Stop. Yes, I understand that your husband wants back in. I like him (probably more than you do). You can make all the arguments you want. Sure, you've won the big states but those are states that would have voted for you anyway. My guy is winning in those states that normally vote red. He's winning traditional democratic voters. You're winning in states where Republicans are allowed to cross over and vote for you because they know you'll lose to Senator McCain.

Stop. Please. Did you not do well in math? You can't get there. Please don't reduce my party to rubble over superdelegates. All those people out there who are voting for my guy? They may not vote for you because you've been pretty nasty.

Stop. Please. Go back to the Senate. Be the Queen. We'll even make you the first woman Senate Majority Leader. Just, please, stop.

Go ahead, try any of them. You'll see. The numbers aren't there.

CNN Delegate Counter

Slate Delegate Calculator

MSNBC Primaries Sheet

Well that's one nominee

2008-03-05T21:59:00.003-05:00

So we know who the Republican nominee will be. Hang on a sec, let me grab a forkful of crow here. I left John McCain for dead last year, along with most people. But McCain rose from the ashes of his own political campaign and snatched the nomination of his party away from those on the far right. And he pretty much did it without their help.

Today, McCain traveled back to Washington, where he met with President Bush. There is nothing more that brings joy to Democrats then to see the two of them arm in arm at the White House. The longer we can tag him as a Republican, the better. So it's a good thing that he is one, isn't it? Let's try and remember that, OK? Besides, he shouldn't be able to serve as president, right?

The next big thing will be to see who McCain picks as his running mate. Larry Sabato, who runs his "Crystal Ball" out at the University of Virginia, had a good article with McCain's choices.

As a Democrat, I am certainly troubled at the direction of my party. This race needs to be over and in my next post, I will go over that in a little more detail. But bottom line is, waiting is bad, because my party can't decide on a nominee and the other party has theirs and he gets to sit back and wait.

Quick Presidential Quiz Answers

2008-02-29T20:27:00.001-05:00

So how'd you do? Here are the answers.

1) Who was the first President to be photographed?

John Adams

2) Who didn't learn to read until he was 17?

Andrew Johnson

3) Who built a swimming pool and a movie theater in the White House?

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

4) Who was ambidextrous?

James Garfield

5) Who was president for only 32 days?

William Henry Harrison

6) Who ordered the White House's first bathtub?

Franklin Pierce

7) Who had the White House's first telephone?

Rutherford B. Hayes

8) Who held his wedding in the White House?

Grover Cleveland

9) Who let his horse graze on the White House lawn?

Zachary Taylor

10) Who gave his pet mockingbird free rein of the indoor air space?

Thomas Jefferson

Quick Presidential Quiz

2008-02-23T20:24:00.001-05:00

This was sent along by a friend. It's a basic quiz. I expect no missed answers. Answers next week. Let's see those answers in the comments, people.

Who was the first President to be photographed?
Who didn't learn to read until he was 17?
Who built a swimming pool and a movie theater in the White House?
Who was ambidextrous?
Who was president for only 32 days?
Who ordered the White House's first bathtub?
Who had the White House's first telephone?
Who held his wedding in the White House?
Who let his horse graze on the White House lawn?
Who gave his pet mockingbird free rein of the indoor air space?

Food For Thought

2008-02-20T23:31:00.000-05:00

While you prepare for the next set of contests, here's a good article to read and then cry about.

"Ten Things that won't change (no matter who gets elected)"

We, as a people, don't like change. So why is it that every one of the candidates is screaming about change?

No more speed, I'm almost there . . .

2008-02-13T22:37:00.004-05:00

I don't really have time for everything that I would like to do. I can't even begin to imagine what it is like to run for president. The commanding egos that it takes to put yourself out there every day and worry about what the other guys are saying about you, afraid you might say something that will wind up on YouTube moments after you utter it.

All that being said, I have woefully neglected The Political Point. I'll try to be better. The delegate count (courtesy of MSNBC News) will stay up there at the top of the column. You should be able to click on it to get full results from the voting that has taken place. Don't forget The Fix over there on the right, which has links to columnists and stories from the Washington Post. Below that is a list of other blogs and political sites that are a little more dedicated to digesting the information and getting it out to you, dear reader.

So by the way of quick recap, here is where things stand since I was here writing last.

Mitt Romney realized his pockets actually did have bottoms and he "suspended" his campaign. He may have been spotted selling used cars in Waltham, Massachusetts. I, mean, really. Mitt. We've had slick, but you took the cake, and the pie, and the donuts . . .
Mike Huckabee is really a nice guy who likes John McCain but would happily pound him into the ground and step over his broken body if it would get him the nomination. He is really working the double-edged sword, to see if the VP slot comes to him, playing coy.
John McCain. Excuse me? Waitress? A serving of crow over here for the Brave Astronaut. I left the man for dead and he has arisen Phoenix-like to nearly secure the nomination. Everybody should go and read this again.

As it looks like McCain will be the nominee, the question is raising its head - who will be his veep? This is a very important question for a man who would be 72 on Inauguration Day. There is of course the "Huckabee Speculation," Governor Pawlenty, as mentioned in the article linked above, a friend who is a McCain supporter who has some inside information that Lindsay Graham is being seriously considered. Over on my regular blog, I have started a series of recapping the Presidents of the United States, which will end on Election Day. When you look at the first few presidents, several started out as Secretary of State. Vice President Rice, anyone?

On the Democratic side, John Edwards slunk away with his tail between his legs. His departure left me with the option of voting for Obama, which I did, in yesterday's "Potomac Primary." It was nice to vote in a primary, where things mattered. The general consensus is that Maryland hasn't been competitive since George Wallace visited Laurel, Maryland in 1972.

Barack Obama is the man to beat. He stands alongside Hillary Clinton, WHO IS UNELECTABLE. Go watch this video and then come back. Go ahead. I'll wait. . . . Isn't that one of the best things you have ever seen? Change is good. Join with me. Get on the Obama train.
Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. Wrote yourself a $5 million check. Shook up your staff. And what did it get you? Not much, you lost the delegate lead, the momentum, the schedule that favored you. Please, we're begging you. Go back to the Senate. Be Queen of the Senate. Get out of the way of history. Please.

I feel like I'm watching those Bugs Bunny cartoons with her. "I dare you to step over this line!" Each line is another primary or caucus. She has staked her campaign on winning Texas and Ohio. Hey, Hil? Give Rudy a call. Ask him how spending all his time in one state, gambling on winning it worked out for him.

Stay tuned, the wild ride is not yet over. Not by a longshot.

"A President Like My Father"

2008-01-28T19:01:00.000-05:00

When the Kennedy family steps up, I listen. Granted, I remember Ted Kennedy's abortive attempt to unseat Jimmy Carter in 1980, but when the Lion of the Senate roars, it's time to sit up and take notice.

Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) has joined with his niece, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, in endorsing Barack Obama for President of the United States.

In yesterday's New York Times, Caroline, the child of John F. Kennedy, endorsed Obama in an op-ed piece, A President Like My Father.

Of the remaining candidates in the race, I have been leading toward John Edwards. I have long maintained that Hillary, while dominant, is unelectable. Obama is fresh, he's new, he represents change. But I still don't know if this country is ready to elect a black man. I will admit to being very impressed at the margin of victory in South Carolina.

For now, I'll go along and see what Super Duper Tuesday brings.

What About Mike Gravel?

2008-01-21T19:56:00.000-05:00

So I guess I am not going to have a chance to vote for Mike Gravel in the MD Primary . . . there is no word from Mad Mike. His whereabouts are unknown. Saturday, the Democrats will complete the other part of the South Carolina Primary. At this moment, the remaining candidates are debating in Myrtle Beach.

I was getting a haircut today and on my left was an older white woman getting her hair cut by an African-American woman, probably in her late 20s-early 30s. I happened to overhear when they started talking politics. I was intrigued to hear that the older white woman was more inclined to vote for Hillary after she showed some emotion before the NH primary. The black woman was going to vote for her until that point. It was a little microcosm of the electorate that I found interesting.

I am still disappointed by John Edwards. If he can't win in South Carolina, there may be no future for him or a role at the convention for that matter. I also can't see him taking the number 2 spot again.

Here is how the delegate count looks for the Democrats among the four remaining candidates.

Needed to nominate: 2025
Total delegate votes: 4049

Hillary Clinton - 236
Barack Obama - 136
John Edwards - 50
Dennis Kucinich - 1

Mac is Back, The Hunt[er] is Over

2008-01-21T11:33:00.000-05:00

Another weekend, another two Republican contests in the books. The Nevada Caucuses and the GOP South Carolina primary were this past Saturday. John McCain is continuing his "Lazarus-like" comeback, capturing a primary that eluded him eight years ago. The two events also knocked Duncan Hunter from the presidential sweepstakes (but what about the one delegate he won?).

I still can't believe that McCain can win. I have heard a lot of talk about getting him to commit to serving only one term. Like he would go on the record and aver that. We will see how things go in Florida this weekend and then on Tsunami Tuesday. Of course, Florida is shaping up as the last stand of Rudy Giuliani. He has had the state to himself for some time and if he doesn't win here, time to pack up the tents and head back into his 9/11 bunker.

According to the Washington Post here are the latest delegate counts.
Needed to nominate: 1191
Total delegates: 2380

Mitt Romney - 59
Mike Huckabee - 40
John McCain - 36
Fred Thompson - 5
Ron Paul - 4
Rudy Giuliani - 1

Three down, 47 to go

2008-01-12T15:28:00.000-05:00

Iowa went first and then Tuesday, New Hampshire. The Wyoming Republicans snuck in there between the two. Here's how they went:

Iowa (Republicans):

Huckabee - 37%, 17 delegates
Romney - 25%, 12 delegates
McCain - 13%, 3 delegates
Thompson - 13%, 3 delegates
Paul - 10%, 2 delegates
Giuliani - 4%, 0 delegates
Hunter - 1%, 0 delegates

Iowa (Democrats)

Obama - 38%, 16 delegates
Edwards - 30%, 14 delegates
Clinton - 29%, 15 delegates

Wyoming (Republicans)

Romney - 67%, 8 delegates
Thompson - 25%, 3 delegates
Hunter - 8%, 1 delegate (OH, HE'S ON FIRE NOW!)

New Hampshire (Democrats)

Clinton - 39%, 9 delegates
Obama - 37%, 9 delegates
Edwards - 17%, 3 delegates

New Hampshire (Republicans)

McCain - 37%, 7 delegates
Romney - 32%, 4 delegates
Huckabee - 11%, 1 delegate

Now its on to Michigan then Nevada, and South Carolina.

If you need a primer on how the delegate selection process works, read this.

Can't he run again?

2008-01-06T22:00:00.000-05:00

I was but five years old when George McGovern ran for president as a Democrat in 1972. He was, of course, crushed under the Nixon landslide. McGovern is 85 now and has outlived most of his political contemporaries. He has put the current president in his sights.

"Why I Believe Bush Must Go" - today's Washington Post

The sub-title of the editorial - "Nixon Was Bad. These Guys Are Worse."

I love being a Democrat.

Done With Hawkeyes, Off to Granites

2008-01-05T13:13:00.000-05:00

For the Republicans - Huckabee vanquishes the Mormon and heads off to New Hampshire without much money or support. How big will the bounce be? Is it enough to stop the surging John McCain, who is fighting his last stand in the Granite State. Will New Hampshire make McCain the "new Comeback Kid?" We'll find out Tuesday. What is evident is that by Tuesday the Republicans should be down to a three man race. Sorry, Dr. Paul, your campaign is terminal. And if Romney comes in a distant third, you should be able to stick a fork in him, too. He'll be done.

A donkey is sort of like a horse right? For we have got ourselves a horse race for the Democrats. Obama's win was much more surprising than Huckabee's (Iowa voters think more like an evangelical Christian than a black man from the city) and it is bad news for the Clinton camp. Well, we have said it all along, she is unelectable. Finally, the voters are coming around to that. I would have liked Edwards to have done a little better, but he is managing. I don't know how long the three man (person) race can last, but it is certainly exciting.

House of Representatives Update

2007-12-27T23:56:00.000-05:00

"No, I'm sorry Ms. Bono-Mack, you may not vote twice, just because you married another House member." Yes, Mary Bono (R-CA), the widow of our dear friend, Sonny, married fellow Representative Connie Mack (R-FL) earlier this month. While it seems that the two of them are safe in their seats in the House, what does the rest of the table look like?

Can the Democrats increase their margins? Can the Republicans claw their way back from the pit? The thing about House races is that as soon as you get elected, you have to start campaigning again, especially if you are in a district that is competitive. Granted with Gerrymandering, there are fewer of those around, but there are some seats that will be newsworthy in 2008.

Larry Sabato, over there at the Crystal Ball again, has come out with his Congressional outlook. He starts off by saying,

Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often-years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other.

Since 1970 we have had five of those years:

[We could have a quiz and make you name them . . . nah, here they are]

1974 - a direct result of Watergate, the Democrats netted 48 House seats (along with 75 freshmen, who shook up the House)
1980 - The Republican landslide with Ronald Reagan's initial election, the GOP added 33 House seats. It didn't give them the majority, but it came damn close.
1982 - And the pendulum swings back. During a recession, Democrats won back 26 of the 33 seats they had lost two years earlier.
1994 - The Contract with America and our man Newt. Forty years of Democratic control of the House came to an end, as the GOP added 52 seats
2006 - After 12 years, Democrats screamed back gaining 30 House seats

There is more good news for the Democrats in this election cycle [from Sabato]:

For the first time in at least two decades, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has out-raised the National Republican Congressional Committee, and by the sizeable margin of $56.6 million to $40.7 million (with cash on hand: $29.2 million D to $2.5 million R).
Freshmen Democrats, many of them elected from normally GOP constituencies in 2006 and thus potentially vulnerable [see my comments above], have been doing particularly well in fundraising.
Out of 23 open seats for 2008, 17 are held by Republicans. Open seats give the opposition party the best chance for a takeover in many instances. You will note below that seven of these are rated as toss-ups.

Here's how Sabato is calling the races in the 23 districts where the incumbent is retiring:

Alabama 2 - (Terry Everett, R) - Safe R
California 52 (Duncan Hunter, R) - Safe R
Colorado 6 (Tom Tancredo, R) - Safe R
Louisiana 4 (Jim McCrery III, R) - Safe R
Mississippi 3 (Chip Pickering, Jr., R) - Safe R
Ohio 7 (Dave Hobson, R) - Safe R
Illinois 18 (Ray LaHood, R) - Likely R
New Jersey 3 (Jim Saxton, R) - Likely R
New Mexico 2 (Steve Pearce, R) - Likely R
Wyoming AL (Barbara Cubin, R) - Likely R
Illinois 14 (Dennis Hastert, R) - Leans R
New Jersey 7 (Mike Ferguson, R) - Toss-up
Arizona 1 (Rick Renzi, R) - Toss-up
Illinois 11 (Jerry Weller, R) - Toss-up
Minnesota 3 (Jim Ramstad, R) - Toss-up
New Mexico 1 (Heather Wilson, R) - Toss-up
Ohio 15 (Deborah Pryce, R) - Toss-up
Ohio 16 (Ralph Regula, R) - Toss-up
Indiana 7 (Julia Carson, D) - Likely D
Colorado 2 (Mark Udall, D) - Safe D
Maine 1 (Tom Allen, D) - Safe D
New Mexico 3 (Tom Udall, D) - Safe D
New York 21 (Michael McNulty, D) - Safe D

There are many bridges to cross between now and election day. A lot will also hinge on who is the nominee of each party for president and how big the coattails are for those down the food chain. Stay tuned.

Whither the Senate?

2007-12-18T22:57:00.000-05:00

Currently the Democrats hold a one vote majority in the Senate. This could very well change come next November. The Republicans are defending twice the number of seats as the Democrats and several of the seats are open because the incumbent is leaving.

Larry Sabato, writer of Sabato's Crystal ball says on his blog,

Look at recent history. The Senate has changed party control six times: in 1980 (D to R), 1986 (R to D), 1994 (D to R), 2001 (R to D), 2002 (D to R), and 2006 (R to D). This is no longer a rare event. And the Democrats now control the Senate by the slimmest of margins, 51 to 49. Surely, then, Republicans have a real chance to recapture Congress' upper chamber in 2008.

Surely not. While strange things happen in politics, and the election is almost a year away, it would be truly extraordinary if the GOP seized the Senate. In fact, Democrats have an excellent chance to expand their margin of control, perhaps significantly. Let's go to the states to see how.

Sabato believes that of the thirty-five Senate races in question, twenty-five of them are locks for the party that holds the seat (11 D, 14 R):

Alabama - Jeff Sessions (R)
Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D)
Delaware - Joe Biden (D) (we're guessing that presidential thing won't work out so well)
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss (R) (and this upsets me, I would like nothing more than for him to lose badly)
Idaho - the departure of Larry Craig (R) is leading to the running of the GOP Lt. Gov. of Idaho, Jim Risch, who will almost certainly be the next Senator (that's how things go there in Idaho)
Illinois - Dick Durbin (D)
Iowa - Tom Harkin (D)
Kansas - Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) - there was a rumor that he was going to get a good challenge, but that has vanished.
Nebraska - Chuck Hagel is leaving the Senate and the Republican former Governor Mike Johanns should win.
Massachusetts - John Kerry (D) - oh, yeah, him.
Michigan - Carl Levin (D)
Mississippi - Thad Cochran (R)
Montana - Max Baucus (D)
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (D) - and very, very old in his second Senate career.
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe (R)
Rhode Island - Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina - Lindsay Graham (R)
South Dakota - Tim Johnson (D)
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas - John Cornyn (R)
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (D)
Wyoming - Mike Enzi (R)
Wyoming - John Barasso (R) - he was appointed to fill out the late Craig Thomas's term and should win on his own.

So what of the other ten elections?

Alaska - Ted Stevens (R) - Oh, that this race should be competitive. Stevens may face a primary challenge as well as a stiff opponent in the general election.
Colorado - Open seat - Wayne Allard (R) pledged to leave after two terms and is doing exactly that. The new "purple" state may very well give the Democrats a pick-up in 2008.
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (D) has been targeted for poor performance post-Katrina, so she is in the bullseye of the Senate races. Given the swing to Republicans in the state (see Bobby Jindal's election as governor and the fleeing of the state of the democratic voting bloc), this race is a toss-up and may very well fall into the "red."
Maine - Susan Collins (R) is a dying breed in the Senate, a moderate Republican. She is facing off against Maine's lone Congressman and could get knocked off. Still rated as a toss-up.
Minnesota - Norm Coleman (R) - is Al Franken enough to put Paul Wellstone's seat back in the Democratic column? Remember, this is the state that elected Jesse Ventura governor.
Mississippi - Trent Lott (R) is taking his marbles and going home. While the Republican Governor of the state, Haley Barbour, has not yet said when the special election will be held, he will have appointed someone to sit in the Senate to gain the stink of incumbency. For that, this election is leaning Republican.
New Hampshire - John Sununu (R) is in big trouble in the Granite state, where Republicans are dropping like flies. He is running against popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen and she will likely win for a Democratic pickup.
New Mexico - Open seat - Pete Domenici (St. Pete, as he is known in NM) is retiring due to illness. This seat will likely stay Republican unless Governor Bill Richardson can be persuaded to run when (note when, not if) his presidential campaign stalls.
Oregon - Gordon Smith (R) normally gets little opposition here. Since he is getting some now, the race is being noticed, but for the time being, he's safe.
Virginia - John Warner (R) is retiring. It is very likely that people will notice little difference as another Warner will likely slip into the seat. Mark Warner, Virginia's popular ex-Governor has announced and will likely face his predecessor in the Virginia state house, Jim Gilmore.

Gut check early prediction for the next Senate:
58 Democrats, 42 Republicans (note, that is still two shy of the presidential override margin, but a Democratic president should come along with it).

The Ioway to the White House (Democrats)

2007-12-15T23:58:00.000-05:00

About three weeks from now, Democratic voters will convene for the Iowa Caucuses. On the Democratic side, it has come down to a horse race between Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. I still believe that when it comes right down to it, people will go into the polling place and say to themselves, "I can't bring myself to vote for a woman, or a black man." This is what John Edwards is counting on. He is not running for second place a second time.

However this all shakes out, the latest polls are showing that any of those three Democrats will beat the Republican nominee (in the case of Mike Huckabee, by double digits).

In the interests of full disclosure, there are other candidates running for the Democratic nomination. No, really there are.

The rest of the field:

Senator Joe Biden (DE) - again, as I have said before, he's really running for Secretary of State.
Senator Chris Dodd (CT) - not a chance, Chris, go back to the Senate.
Former Senator Mike Gravel (AK/VA) - every time I say his name, Mrs. BA goes, "Who?"
Representative Dennis Kucinich (OH) - he's got the UFO lovers vote sewn up
Governor Bill Richardson (NM) - I really like him, but he is running for the vice presidency.

So how do we think Iowa will shake out? Here's the predicted order of finish for the first three contests (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina):

Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards

The lesser candidates will likely not survive after this point. Further, there is a significant possibility that the Democrats will see a brokered convention because they apportion their delegates differently than the Republicans. It is not winner take all, and will the three front runners all close in poll numbers the number of delegates for each contest could get split three ways.

Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

I Heart Huckabee?

2007-12-11T00:25:00.001-05:00

I would like to say I thought this all the time, but it would conflict with my other belief that America does not elect a president with a vowel at the end of his name. With those disclaimers, what is up with Mike Huckabee? The new man from Hope, Arkansas, albeit from the other side of the aisle, is positioning himself to win Iowa and possibly South Carolina.

With less than a month to go before the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, here are my predictions for what the Republican field might look like going into Tsunami Tuesday.

Here are the Republican candidates, in case you have been living in a vacuum or under a rock:

Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York
Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas
Duncan Hunter, Congressman from California
John McCain, Senator from Arizona
Ron Paul, Representative from Texas
Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
Tom Tancredo, Congressman from Colorado
Fred Thompson, Actor, former Senator from Tennessee

The Washington Post has started a series on the candidates, which has been very good. It focuses on the "front-runners" and for the Republicans, that means, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and Thompson. While Congressmen Paul, Tancredo, and Hunter are certainly interesting in their own right, they will not be the nominee of their party. So, for our purposes here, they are not a factor.

Iowa: The Republicans are starving for someone that thinks like they do. Despite Mitt Romney's millions of dollars spent in the Hawkeye State, I don't think it's going to happen for him. Ditto for Rudy. Iowans will go for the guy who sounds like them.

Projected Finish:

Huckabee
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain

New Hampshire: Romney's last stand. If he can't win here, next to his putative home of Massachusetts, stick a fork in him, he's done. McCain needs the big win, too, but again, as I have said all along, I never thought he would make it this far.

Projected Finish:

Romney
Giuliani
Huckabee
Thompson
McCain

South Carolina: The third prize in the front-loaded delegate sweepstakes. McCain has spent a lot of time here and, unfortunately it is not paying off for him. He will probably make it to this primary and they quietly walk away.

Projected Finish:

Huckabee
Giuliani
Romney
McCain
Thompson

Once these three contests are over, I think that both McCain and Thompson will withdraw. Giuliani still leads in most national polls on the race for the nomination, but Huckabee is closing the ground fast. The big question will be is where do the supporters of McCain and Thompson go when those tents come down? That may be the best news for Mitt Romney. In a three-person race, he will come off as the most "presidential" (again, the vowel thing) and should get a good bump going into "Super-Duper Tuesday."

I still maintain that at least one party or the other may go into their convention without one individual holding enough delegates to get the nomination on the first ballot. God, I would love that. I would take time off to sit in front of C-Span to watch.

Coming next, why can't John Edwards pass Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? Come back soon. I'll be here.

Answers to the second quiz

2007-12-01T16:16:00.000-05:00

Here are the answers to the second quiz, which appeared last Sunday.

Which member appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a professional athlete?

Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) in the March 1, 1965 issue. (He was a professional baseball player.)

How many current governors served in Congress?

10 of 50 (Bob Riley - Alabama, Butch Otter - Idaho, Rod Blagojevich - Illinois, Ernie Fletcher - Kentucky, John Baldacci - Maine, Jim Gibbons - Nevada, Jon Corzine - New Jersey, Bill Richardson - New Mexico, Ted Strickland - Ohio, Mark Sanford, South Carolina)

How many Senators served in the House?

49 of 100

How many Senators are children of Senators?

Five - Evan Bayh (D-IN), Robert Bennett (R-UT), Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Mark Pryor (D-AR).

How many presidents has Representative John Dingell (D-Mich.) served under since he was sworn in?

Ten, Dingell took office in December 1955.

Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore failed to win 30 percent of the vote in four states in 2000. Name them.

Alaska (28%), Idaho (28%), Utah (26%), Wyoming (28%)

Which three states switched their presidential vote from 2000 to 2004?

Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico

Congress, it's just trivial!

2007-11-27T20:21:00.000-05:00

Here are the answers from last week's quiz. How'd you do? Are you ready for some politics? Stay tuned.

Which member of Congress is the only one who refuses to disclose his or her date of birth?

Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) - best the Congressional Biographical Dictionary can say is December 1952.

Which member of Congress is baseball great Hank Aaron's brother-in-law?

Representative David Scott (D-GA)

Which member of Congress delivered his 2002 opponent's baby?

Representative Michael Burgess (R-TX)

Which member of Congress worked for Jerry Springer's 1982 Ohio gubernatorial campaign?

Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA)

Which member of Congress carried the "nuclear football" for Presidents Carter and Reagan?

Representative John Kline (R-MN)

Which member of Congress is the only member to list the addresses of all his district's bowling alleys on his congressional website? (Oh, think about this one, it's easy!)

Representative Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) (told you it was easy.)

The Primary Lineup

2007-11-23T20:50:00.000-05:00

The New Hampshire Secretary of State has finally declared that the first presidential primary will take place on January 8. With that, the schedule is set.

January 3, 2008 - Iowa caucuses
January 5, 2008 - Wyoming caucuses (Republicans)
January 8, 2008 - New Hampshire primary
January 15, 2008 - Michigan primary
January 19, 2008 - Nevada caucus and South Carolina (Republicans) primary
January 26, 2008 - South Carolina primary (Democrats)
January 29, 2008 - Florida primary
February 1, 2008 - Maine caucus (Democrats)
February 5, 2008 - being dubbed as "Tsunami Tuesday" or "Super Duper Tuesday" when 21 states will hold caucuses or primaries.
Alabama
Alaska (caucus)
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado (caucus)
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho (Democratic caucus)
Illinois
Kansas (Democratic caucus)
Minnesota (caucus)
Missouri
New Jersey
New Mexico (Democrats)
New York
North Dakota (caucus)
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah
February 7, 2008 - Hawaii caucuses (Republicans)
February 9, 2008 - Kansas Republican caucus, Louisiana primary, Nebraska Democratic caucus
February 10, 2008 - Maine caucuses (Republicans)
February 12, 2008 - The "Capital Primary" - Washington DC, Maryland, and Virginia primaries
February 19, 2008 - Hawaii caucuses (Democrats), Washington state and Wisconsin primaries
March 4, 2008 - Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont primaries
March 8, 2008 - Wyoming caucus (Democrats)
March 11, 2008 - Mississippi primary
April 22 - Pennsylvania primary
May 6, 2008 - Indiana and North Carolina primaries
May 13, 2008 - Nebraska primary (Republicans) and West Virginia primary
May 20, 2008 - Kentucky and Oregon primaries
May 27, 2008 - Idaho primary (Republicans)
June 3, 2008 - Montana, New Mexico (Republican), and South Dakota primaries

Get Your Motor Running!

2007-11-20T20:03:00.000-05:00

Don't you think that Steppenwolf's "Born to Be Wild" would make an awesome campaign song? This on the heels of Senator Obama's admission that he used illegal drugs and drank in college (well, who didn't really?), maybe he should pick a new song.

But it is time to get pumped for the upcoming presidential campaign. Yes, sure it's been going on for a while, leading to this Onion story, but the Iowa caucuses are less than two months away! I hope that this blog will be your site for finding out who will grab their respective party's crowns and head off to the general election.

As a teaser, here is a short trivia, courtesy of today's Washington Post. Answers next week. And lots more content coming!

"Like us, you probably spend the holidays gathered around a roaring fire, leafing through the family's beloved, dog-eared copy of the Almanac of American Politics. (Did you know that Collin Peterson - the Susan Lucci of Congress - lost four consecutive races for Minnesota's 7th District before he got elected?) To pump you up for the newly released 2008 edition, the publishers offer these brainteasers to share with your loved ones this Thanksgiving."

Which member of Congress is the only one who refuses to disclose his or her date of birth?
Which member of Congress is baseball great Hank Aaron's brother-in-law?
Which member of Congress delivered his 2002 opponent's baby?
Which member of Congress worked for Jerry Springer's 1982 Ohio gubernatorial campaign?
Which member of Congress carried the "nuclear football" for Presidents Carter and Reagan?
Which member of Congress is the only member to list the addresses of all his district's bowling alleys on his congressional website? (Oh, think about this one, it's easy!)

Scary Quote of the Week

2007-10-24T22:36:00.000-05:00

"I've been planning that myself." - President Bush, asked about the prospect of Putin keeping power next year by becoming prime minister.

This will come as no surprise to some, who believe that the current administration might even plan a terrorist attack (or let one happen) next summer, suspend the Constitution, and call off the 2008 elections to stay in power.

Senator? Do you have a square to spare?

2007-10-23T22:10:00.000-05:00

So Larry Craig is staying. Does this mean that his ultimate retirement will mean Idaho will elect a Democrat to replace him? Probably not, but it will certainly make his seat a little more competitive with him staying on the stage too long.

The Republicans have the majority of seats to defend in the 2008 cycle, 22, versus 12 for the Democrats. Five of the Republican seats will be open as the Republican incumbent is retiring.

Here's a rundown on the Senate Races for 2008 and the (very early) predictions:

Alabama - Jeff Sessions (R) cruises to a third term.

Alaska - Ted Stevens (R) will be 85 in 2008. Let's hope the Democrats can find a worthy opponent. Ted is definitely a target. Let's say Democratic pickup.

Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D) vs. whatever sacrificial lamb the Republicans can find. He's probably safe.

Colorado - Wayne Allard (R) promised to stay for two terms and he's keeping his promise. Congressman Mark Udall (D) is running. Look for a Democratic pickup here, remember the Democratic Convention is in Denver in 2008.

Delaware - Joe Biden (D), you remember him? The guy running for President? Watch for him to slink back to DE and pick up his campaign to return to the Senate (until a democratic president-elect chooses him for Secretary of State, the job he's really running for). The seat will stay Democratic.

Georgia - I would love nothing more than to see Saxby Chambliss (R) lose this election. He managed to defeat Max Cleland by calling him unpatriotic. Nice. A veteran in a wheelchair is unpatriotic. Chambliss is not worthy of being a Senator, but I don't see a good enough challenger to unseat him.

Idaho - Larry Craig (R) is staying until the end of his term. But in this conservative state, that might not be enough to make the state go blue.

Illinois - Dick Durbin (D) has risen into the party leadership. Illinois loves him and will send him back to the Senate.

Iowa - Tom Harkin (D) is an institution in this state. No Republican should have a chance.

Kansas - Pat Roberts (R), see Tom Harkin, but as a Republican.

Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) is now the Minority Leader in the Senate. He's not going anywhere.

Louisiana - With the election of Congressman Bobby Jindal (R) as Governor, the state is losing Democrats left and right. Mary Landrieu (D) is certain to be targeted by the Republicans and she is in danger of losing her seat. Republican pickup.

Maine - Susan Collins (R) is a dying breed, that of a moderate Republican. Tom Allen (D), one of Maine's two Congressmen is already running and it will definitely be a close race. I say Democratic pickup.

Massachusetts - Hey, remember this guy? He wanted to be president? In one of the bluest states in the nation, John Kerry will stay in the Senate.

Michigan - Carl Levin (D) has been around the Senate for sometime. While he will be 74 in 2008, he's not heading home. He's safe.

Minnesota - Norm Coleman (R) should have never been elected. Had Paul Wellstone not died in a plane crash, he wouldn't have. A bevy of characters have lined up to take on Coleman, including comedian Al Franken. Democratic pickup.

Mississippi - Thad Cochran (R) is the other senator from Mississippi. He will cruise to reelection.

Montana - Believe it or not, both Senators from Montana are Democrats. Max Baucus (D) has been there a while and should be hard to push aside.

Nebraska - Chuck Hagel is taking his marbles and going home. Bob Kerrey, the former Senator is being pushed very hard to run for the Senate again. Let's hope so. Democratic pickup.

New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (D) was called out of retirement to run when Bob Menendez hit the skids in 2002. Lautenberg will be 84 in 2008. Does he have it for another six years? Either way, I think the seat stays democratic.

New Mexico - St. Pete, Pete Domenici (R) is retiring due to brain disease. There are those that are hoping Bill Richardson (D) will give up the presidency chase and go for this seat instead. This seat's a toss-up.

North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (R) turns 72 in 2008 and has had some health problems recently. Might she announce her retirement soon? But the seat is likely to stay red.

Oklahoma - James Inhofe (R) will be 74 in 2008. He may call it quits, but there is currently no real competition for him. Either way, the seat stays in the Republican column.

Rhode Island - Jack Reed is a nice moderate Democrat. He's safe.

South Carolina - Lindsay Graham, who made his name as one of Clinton's impeachers, has moved to the center as a Senator. He's very impressive and a shoo-in for reelection.

South Dakota - Tim Johnson nearly died, but he's running for another term. You want to go negative on this guy? He should be fine.

Tennessee - Lamar Alexander is quiet, unassuming, and of retirement age. But he's probably staying and should be reelected easily.

Texas - John Cornyn is one of Bush's closest allies in the Senate. While that is certain to be a handicap for him, he should be safe.

Virginia - The Commonwealth looks to be changing color and will exchange one Warner for another, as John (R) is retiring and former Governor Mark (D) is running. Democratic pickup.

West Virginia - John D. Rockefeller IV is still the junior Senator from WV (at 71). He's back for another term.

Wyoming - Both seats are up for reelection with the passing in 2006 of Craig Thomas. John Barasso was appointed and will run on his own for the completion of Thomas's term. Also up in Mike Enzi. Both should win.

So what's the scorecard?

Current - 49 R, 49 D, 2 I (with the Democrats)

Projected - 44 R, 54 D, 2 I (with the Democrats)

A Look at the House of Representatives

2007-10-08T21:41:00.000-05:00

I have been neglectful of this blog for some time. Here we are in October of 2007 and the interminable quest for the presidency continues. Here are a series of posts to update where things stand for the races for the House, the Senate, and of course, the Presidency.

The House of Representatives is currently at 232 Democrats and 200 Republicans. There are currently three vacancies. In Massachusetts, Martin Meehan resigned to become Chancellor of the University of Massachusetts. A special election will take place on October 16. It is expected that Paul Tsongas' widow will win that election and the seat will remain in Democratic hands. Representatives Paul Gillmore (R-OH) and Joann Davis (R-VA) died in office and special elections will be set to fill those vacancies. Neither seat is expected to be competitive.

So what does this mean for 2008? According to Sabato's Crystal Ball, there are a total of sixty-one competitive races in 2008. Twenty-eight of the seats are held by Democrats and thirty-three by Republicans. Sabato defines the race as competitive if the victor won with less than 55 percent of the vote in 2006. This site is watching the "open seat" races, where the representatives have announced their retirements from the House. As of mid-September, this list has nine people on it, seven Republicans and two Democrats, including former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

Several of the seats currently held by Democrats are in Republican districts (Mark Foley's district in Florida, for one) and they will be challenging for Democrats to hold. My early prediction? The House stays in Democratic hands but the majority shrinks. Make me put a number on it? 220-215.

So Where are We?

2007-07-15T11:13:00.000-05:00

Yes, I know. It's a been a while. But, please, I can't keep posting to this blog about the goings on in presidential politics. That would only encourage the candidates that we like this marathon campaign season.

But I figured it was time for a little update as the field is shifting. Let's take a look at the Democrats first - for if you can believe it, they are the more stable group.

Hillary still leads the pack - and I continue to shake my head. I don't get it. It is clear that if she gets the nomination, Republicans will get up out of their graves to vote against her. But Democrats don't see that. Kudos for the ad announcing her campaign song - but MAJOR boos for choosing Celene Dion! She is still the candidate to beat.
One of the only others in the field that can is Barack Obama. He continues to do well in speaking, fund-raising, no gaffes. As with a woman, we may not be a nation ready to elect a black man, but between the two of them - it's going to be interesting.
John Edwards. He has been dealing with some issues, mainly the haircut thing. Then his wife, Elizabeth, took on Ann Coulter (LOVED it). I think that Edwards has a really good shot, he just needs to let it ride and perhaps hope for a brokered convention, where the delegates would move to him after it becomes clear that neither Hillary nor Obama can get the nomination.
Despite his claim that he is after the top job, Bill Richardson is clearly running for Vice President. He would be an outstanding number two for any of the candidates. He has good Clinton ties and would be a great fit for her.
The Rest of the Field: Biden - again, says he is running for president, but I think really is running to be somebody's Secretary of State. It's the job he has always wanted. Dodd - putting a lot of money in some of the early primary states, it's not going to help. Kucinich - his only chance is with the crazy vote, which he has locked up. Gravel - still asking, who?
The wallflowers - Al Gore and Wesley Clark. Gore could get into the race and become a serious contender overnight. Clark not so much.

The Republicans are [still] in complete disarray. I believe I could announce for the Republican nomination and get it.

People scoffed at me when I said that John McCain was not going to get the nomination. He has only about three people still working for him and about that many dollars. I still don't think he makes it past the first set of primaries.
Rudy Giuliani. I still wonder how a left wing Republican (what we New Yorkers call a Rockefeller Republican) can get the base to support him. He must be doing something right. I always use to say that a candidate with a vowel at the end of his name wouldn't play in the Midwest, but he seems to be doing well all over.
While Mitt Romney has lost the PETA vote, he is doing well in all areas of the party. He has been raising good money and is clearly gaining momentum.
We all know what happened the last time the Republicans nominated an actor for the presidency. Can lightning strike Fred Thompson and elevate him to the big house? Stay tuned for that one, but don't go looking for the Law and Order reruns, they will have to be pulled.
The other guys - Sam Brownback - may God have mercy on our souls if he manages to make it; Mike Huckabee - how far can weight loss carry a man?; Duncan Hunter - one should have more than one issue to run on; Ron Paul - see Dennis Kucinich; Tom Tancredo - see Duncan Hunter; the other Thompson (Tommy), a potential dark horse, but way, way, way outside.

Who Will Be Number 2?

2007-03-31T18:27:00.000-05:00

A pause from the examination of who will top the respective party tickets. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is speculating on who might be a good choice to round out the tickets for the Republicans and the Democrats next year.

Sabato starts with what the VP choice should bring to the ticket:

Disciplined, relatively scandal-free, and cause no major problems at selection time and throughout the campaign.
Should be able to carry his or her home state. This is important especially if the choice is from a state that would go to the other party otherwise.
They should complement those talents / experiences of the presidential nominee
Help to (re)unite the party by being from another faction than the presidential candidate. Sorry, Joe Lieberman, don't wait for the phone to ring.
If the presidential nominee is too far left or right, then the VP choice should be a centrist.
A regional balance can be helpful, but it has not proved essential (Clinton/Gore).
Symbolism - a woman, African-American, Hispanic/Latino, etc., could translate to voters and money
Personal chemistry between the ticket-mates. Again, good, but not essential (Kennedy/Johnson).
Finally, is he presidential?

Of course, as the article continues, the number 2 slot often goes to the person who comes in second in the delegate count. They are known quantities but with this field unlikely. Obama is a likely choice, if he can hold on to second. Same for Bill Richardson. Hillary would not be satisfied with number 2 and Edwards has already been there, done that. For the Republicans, Rudy's ego would disqualify him, McCain's age, and Romney brings nothing to the party except things people don't want.

Who Will be the Democratic Number 2?

2007-03-31T18:15:00.000-05:00

Sen. Evan Bayh of IN - Centrist Democrat who could put IN and OH in play simultaneously, good family and media image, broad executive and legislative experience, BUT cannot guarantee IN, not a strong public speaker, low-wattage personality.
Gov. Phil Bredesen of TN - Executive experience at state and local levels, puts TN in play, moderate Southern/Border Democrat, personal wealth, BUT no foreign policy experience, bland personality.
Sen. Bob Casey of PA - Moderate Democrat, giant-killer of Santorum in '06, guarantees PA.
Gov. Jon Corzine of NJ - Executive and legislative experience, strong business credentials, personal wealth, BUT adds nothing electorally, perception that NJ=corruption and Corzine has had more than his personal share of it, another liberal Democrat from the Northeast.
Gov. Mike Easley of NC - Executive experience, good match for northern liberal, puts NC in play, BUT dull persona, no foreign policy experience.
Sen. Russ Feingold of WI - Broad legislative experience, strong netroots backing, highly intelligent, clean as a hound's tooth, BUT very liberal Democrat, twice divorced, something of a gadfly, unable to be controlled by nominee or, eventually, the White House.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar of MN - Keeps MN in D column, woman, good counter-move to Pawlenty, some legislative and law enforcement experience, BUT MN already likely to be D, liberal record, minimal elected office experience, no foreign policy background.
Sen. Mary Landrieu of LA - Centrist Southern Democrat, woman, may possibly be able to put LA in play, long legislative experience, could make Bush Katrina response a big issue, BUT by no means can she guarantee LA, much less any other electoral votes.
Sen. Blanche Lincoln of AR - Moderate Democrat, Southern, woman, considerable legislative experience, puts AR in play, BUT AR not guaranteed, and not many electoral votes besides, bland persona.
Gov. Joe Manchin of WV - Executive experience, moderate Democrat, puts WV in play, BUT WV is a tough sell nationally, no electoral votes outside WV guaranteed, no foreign policy experience.
Gov. Janet Napolitano of AZ - Western executive, woman, puts AZ in play, BUT no national security experience, unknown nationally.
Sen. Bill Nelson of FL - Only Democrat who can probably deliver FL and thus the White House, long legislative experience, moderate Southern D, BUT FL not guaranteed even with Nelson, not a strong persona.
Sen. Mark Pryor of AR - Moderate Democrat, Southern, good political instincts, puts AR in play, BUT little foreign policy or executive experience, bland persona.
Gov. Ed Rendell of PA - Strong executive experience at state and local levels, key state that GOP always targets, BUT relatively little national security background, PA ought to be Blue anyway.
Gov. Bill Richardson of NM - He's got it all: The resume of the year, executive and legislative credentials, the only Governor with a credible foreign policy, Hispanic, Western, BUT are the personal womanizing rumors true? We don't know but Richardson has to deal with them so the nominee--if not Richardson--doesn't have to.
Gov. Bill Ritter of CO - Western executive, puts CO in play, BUT relatively inexperienced, problems with labor unions, too.
Sen. Ken Salazar of CO - Key Western state, probably puts CO in D column, Hispanic, BUT no foreign policy experience, relatively new, bland persona.
Gov. Brian Schweitzer of MT - Executive experience, Western, ebullient personality, may put MT in play, BUT adds little electorally, no foreign policy experience.
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of KS - Executive experience, woman, Midwest, possibly could put KS in play, BUT unknown nationally, in deep Red territory that perhaps cannot be moved, no foreign policy experience.
Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio - Executive and legislative experience, moderate Democrat used to running in rural areas, puts the key swing state of OH in play or more, BUT depends on achievements as Governor by '08, low voltage personality, little foreign policy experience.
Ex-Gov. Mark Warner of VA - Successful executive and businessman, puts VA and WV in play, unusually energetic, personal wealth, BUT only one-term in office, no foreign policy experience.
Sen. Jim Webb of VA - Moderate Democrat and former Reagan Republican, might put VA in play, giant-killer of George Allen in '06 that switched Senate to D column, netroots favorite, would pound away at Iraq, national security and military experience, BUT new to Senate and elective office, might be loose cannon, certainly impossible to control, doesn't guarantee VA.

Who Will Be the Republican Number 2?

2007-03-31T18:02:00.000-05:00

Gov. Haley Barbour of MS - Solid Southern conservative, sharp strategist, national reputation as ex-RNC Chair, understands the media, BUT adds nothing electorally, may be too conservative for country, has mission to complete in post-Katrina MS.
Ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush - Strong record as Governor, critical swing state, 100 percent name ID, BUT his last name is tarnished for a generation.
Sen. Susan Collins of ME - Moderate-liberal, woman with centrist appeal, could put ME into play, BUT social views would cause consternation among GOP conservatives.
Sen. Elizabeth Dole of NC - Stellar "brand name" in GOP, solid conservative, woman, wouldn't be controversial, BUT adds little electorally, unexciting candidate.
Sen. Lindsay Graham of SC - McCain favorite, some centrist appeal, long legislative experience, BUT adds nothing electorally, has irritated many conservatives yet totally pro-Iraq War, brings back Clinton impeachment issue.
Sen. Chuck Hagel of NE - If Iraq is a total disaster, Hagel is a way for GOP nominee to separate himself from Bush, BUT adds nothing electorally, would split party, strong personality would overshadow presidential candidate.
Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee of AR - Moderate conservative, long executive record, weight loss twist, BUT tax-cutting wing doesn't like him. Offers little or nothing electorally.
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of TX - Solid conservative except on abortion, woman, long political experience, appeal in South plus West, BUT adds little electorally. Only Texan who could be on the ticket in '08 (sorry, Rick Perry and John Cornyn), but is the Bush-whacked Lone Star State out of the running totally this time?
Sen. Joe Lieberman of CT - Technically a Democrat-Fusion ticket, long Senate and foreign policy experience, hawk, could put CT in play, BUT his liberal views on economic and social issues would be anathema to GOP.
Gov. Tim Pawlenty of MN - Conservative with a Midwest twist, executive experience, swing state, McCain favorite, BUT questionable whether he could carry MN after weak 2006 performance.
Gov. Sonny Perdue of GA - Solid conservative, Southern base, executive experience, BUT perhaps too conservative for the country, adds nothing electorally.
Gov. Jodi Rell of CT - Liberal on social issues, woman, puts her state in play, BUT so liberal a GOP convention walk-out might occur.
Gov. Bob Riley of AL - Solid conservative, congressional and executive experience, BUT gains the GOP nothing electorally. No foreign policy experience.
Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice - Black, female, impressive mind, 100 percent name ID, BUT Iraq, Iraq, Iraq: She owns it too. Bush III when almost no one wants that.
Gov. Mark Sanford of SC - Solid Southern conservative, executive and legislative experience, 2000 McCain backer, BUT adds nothing electorally, mixed record in Palmetto State.
Sen. Gordon Smith of OR - Centrist appeal, could make OR competitive, BUT too liberal for most in GOP, likely loss of his GOP Senate seat (up in 2008).
Sen. Olympia Snowe of ME - Liberal who appeals to center, woman, long legislative experience, could put ME into play, BUT may be too liberal for most in GOP, possible convention walk-out.
Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson of TN/Hollywood/DC - Solid conservative, McCain supporter--at least until he got the White House bug recently, Reaganesque, great on TV, BUT time may have passed, adds little electorally.
Sen. David Vitter of LA - Endorsed Rudy, possible Southern VP for him, good media image, could crusade for Katrina relief--separating the ticket from Bush, BUT relatively unknown and inexperienced, adds nothing electorally, hasn't been vetted.
Sen. George Voinovich of OH - Long executive and legislative experience, could be the only way for GOP to save the key swing state of Ohio, BUT nationally unknown, somewhat quirky in Senate.

Mayor Mike Makes Some Noise

2007-03-27T19:28:00.000-05:00

Reports are circulating that New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg is thinking about running as an independent for President of the United States. Someone needs to sit him down to contact John Lindsay from the grave (or for that matter, his predecessor, Rudy Giuliani).

Could he do it? One of the reasons that Governor Tom Vilsack withdrew from the presidential race (and endorsed Hillary Clinton) was that he didn't have enough money to sustain his candidacy. Mayor Mike? Not a problem, as Bloomberg currently sits at No. 142 on the Forbes list of the worlds richest people and is reportedly worth at least $5.5 billion. He is also not afraid to spend his money. In his recent reelection bid for Mayor, he spent $85 million against an opponent that was not likely to win anyway.

Who would he appeal to? Bloomberg used to be a Democrat, turning Republican late in life (perhaps it was all that money). So he could draw support from both parties to an independent candidacy.

What about those other people? The two main parties have the process locked up and third party candidacies very rarely get anywhere (see: Ralph Nader, Ross Perot). Bloomberg is publicly silent on the issue, but the idea is coming out from Bloomberg's media empire that he is considering it.

Unity08 was founded to help the "center" gain a voice and is planning to hold a "unity" primary to nominate a bipartisan ticket for the White House. The group was founded by several heavy hitters, including Hamilton Jordan, who served as President Jimmy Carter's Chief of Staff.

The question remains, one that Bloomberg himself is asking, can a "5-foot-7, divorced billionaire Jew running as an independent from New York possibly have a chance?"

For 2008, as we have already seen . . . All bets are off.

But I Brought a Note from My Campaign Manager

2007-02-25T22:53:00.000-05:00

There is a new report out that recounts the votes missed by current members of Congress. Pundits have taken note of the presidential contenders who have missed votes. Please disregard the person at the top of the list, Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), he's been a little busy not dying.

Herewith is the list of senators who have missed votes and are also seeking their party's nomination for president.

Sam Brownback (R-KS) - 22 votes missed (42.3%)
Joseph Biden (D-DE) - 12 votes missed (23.1%)
Chuck Hagel (R-NE) - 9 votes missed (17.3%)
Christopher Dodd (D-CT) - 8 votes missed (15.4%)
John McCain (R-AZ) - 5 votes missed (9.6%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) - 2 votes missed (3.8%)
Barack Obama (D-IL) - 0 votes missed!

Vilsack Gets Sacked

2007-02-25T22:48:00.000-05:00

Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack has withdrawn from the 2008 Presidential Race, a mere 15 weeks after getting into it. Vilsack announced the day after the 2006 midterm elections and brought the best "emotional" story to the race. However, he was always viewed as a underdog, despite an impressive resume and most importantly, executive experience. As most pundits will tell you there is a reason the past four of five presidents have been governors.

Vilsack's withdrawal could be good for Bill Richardson of New Mexico, one of the few other governors in the race and also an impressive resume. I believe Richardson will do well if he can survive the front runner shuffle being conducted by the Senator from Illinois and the Senator from New York.

Stay tuned. There's still a long way to go and lots more time for people to stumble.

President John McCain?

2007-02-07T22:25:00.000-05:00

The current issue of Washingtonian Magazine (February 2007) has a fictional article in it on how John McCain becomes president in 2008. It was a fascinating read with some interesting factual stingers, most notably how Joe Biden can't seem to keep his foot out of his mouth (articulate, indeed!).

The article describes how the Democrats go into their convention deadlocked with John Edwards, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton all with large numbers of delegates but not enough to capture the nomination. Clinton finally releases her delegates to Edwards after securing a promise that he will pick Obama as his running mate. Clinton returns to the Senate and a place in history.

McCain has wrested the nomination away from Rudy Giuliani and asked Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty to run as his vice president. The general election race is on. On October 31, a terrorist attack strikes in St. Louis and it reminds the nation that Edwards and Obama may not be ready. McCain wins the election a week later.

The article uses actual statements from McCain and weaves an impressive story and goes to show how entertaining the next two years are going to be. But I still think that McCain will not be the Republican nominee, regardless of what happens.

Only 648 Days Until the Election!

2007-01-29T22:27:00.000-05:00

The title of this blog comes from the cover of Time Magazine's February 5, 2007 issue. The issue is full of stories about the extraordinary presidential race already underway. It reminds us this is the first election since 1928 that no incumbent President or Vice President is on a primary ballot. It points out that we might conceivably elect the first woman, the first African American, the first Latino, or the first Mormon.

The magazine also announces the creation of the Time Election Index, which will be periodically updated as the candidates popularity ebb and flow over the election season. The index plots a candidates support among voters against how much they presume to know about the candidate. The index currently puts the front runners as Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats.

Speaking of Clinton, she campaigned in Iowa this weekend and performed admirably. It marks the first time a Clinton has campaigned in the Midwest battleground in some time. Bill Clinton wrote off Iowa in 1992 and did not campaign there as an incumbent in 1996.

The issue also points out the 8 Keys to the Campaign:

How the Iraq War Scrambles Party Lines - where else do Chuck Hagel and Joe Biden agree?
Raising Cash - Clinton's announcement to forgo public financing puts the bar out of sight of most, meaning that candidates will need to raise about $2 million a week to remain competitive through the campaign.
The Religion Question - Are we ready for a Mormon? Do we need another conservative Christian? What of the Republicans who don't espouse the typical religious beliefs of the party? Which Democrat will stop ducking the gay marriage question?
Read All About It! - At least half of the candidates out there have best sellers.
What About That Guy? - Both Al Gore and Newt Gingrich are waiting in the wings to see what happens. Newt reminds us all that John Kennedy waited until January 1960 before announcing his candidacy for president.
The men behind the curtains - Political talent is being snapped up left and right. Will there be anyone left? Are the operatives hooking their carts to the right horse?
The Blogosphere - There are a lot of us out there and many of the candidates do their own blogging. Howard Dean showed us the power of the Internet and it will only become more powerful in the next two years.
Wait, don't tell me. That's, um, you know, that Senator . . . - Three House members, a bunch of Senators, several Governors. Can't tell the players without a scorecard. Get yer programs here!

It's going to be a long season / campaign / year. Hold on tight!

January - A Busy Month!

2007-01-22T19:31:00.000-05:00

It's only January 22, and we have had a flurry of candidates getting into the race. Storming into the race and out in front are the two Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Over the weekend, Senator Sam Brownback announced his candidacy. Governor Bill Richardson takes aim at the Hispanic vote by announcing the formation of his exploratory committee.

A news report tonight on the Jim Lehrer News Hour contained a quote that candidates will need to raise nearly $2 million a week over the next year to stay viable. It is the first time since 1928 there is no sitting president or vice president in the field, hence the plethora of candidates.

It is still too soon to tell who the nominee will be and whether it will even be one of the current candidates or a dark horse not yet being discussed.

Democrats in:

Joe Biden (Sen.-DE) - announced he is running but no formal candidacy announcement yet.
Hillary Rodham Clinton (Sen.-NY) - announced her candidacy on the Internet, realizing the power of that medium. But can she win?
Christopher Dodd (Sen.-CT) - announced candidate with little appeal outside of his native Connecticut. Could be a good veep for a candidate outside the Northeast, like . . .
John Edwards (former Sen.-NC) - the former VP candidate in 2004 has remade himself as a populist and as the "Anti-Hillary." It could work to his advantage.
Mike Gravel (former Sen.-VA) - who? Gravel represented Alaska in the House and was front and center during the Watergate issues. Since relocating to Virginia, he is largely unnoticed in the field.
Dennis Kucinich (Rep.-OH) - A candidate in 2004, he believes the Democrats are not advancing the anti-Iraq agenda enough. Not likely to be a contender.
Barack Obama (Sen.-IL) - filed his paperwork for his committee this month and will announce in February. Can he stop the Hillary onslaught?
Bill Richardson (Gov.-NM) - a candidate I firmly believe can win the presidency.
Tom Vilsack (former Gov.-IA) - restricted by term limits, he announced his candidacy the day after Election Day 2006. Could be a VP candidate.

Republicans in:

Sam Brownback (Sen.-KS) - the choice of conservative candidates, he could keep the Republicans to the right.
Jim Gilmore (former Gov.-VA) - no, really. Jim Gilmore? for President?
Rudy Giuliani (former Mayor-NYC) - the 9/11 icon could make the Republicans worry about the message he brings to the party.
Duncan Hunter (Rep.-CA) - a House Member with one issue to run on, the military.
John McCain (Sen.-AZ) - the front runner, if he runs.
Mitt Romney (former Gov.-MA) - sometimes conservative, sometimes liberal, Mitt is an enigma, and that's dangerous.
Tom Tancredo (Rep.-CO) - another House member with one issue, but this one is immigration. He won't go quietly.
Tommy Thompson (former Gov.-WI) - also a former member of the Bush Cabinet, he may show up on VP short lists, but that's about all.

Representative Tancredo slips in under the radar

2007-01-17T19:45:00.000-05:00

Representative Tom Tancredo (R-CO) has filed papers to form a presidential exploratory committee. It was not an unexpected move, but Tancredo is another longshot for the nomination. He joins another House member, Duncan Hunter (R-CA) in the race for the Republican nomination.

As I said when Hunter got in the race, the last House member to go to the Presidency was James Garfield in 1880. With the star power on the Republican side (Giuliani, McCain), Hunter and Tancredo can only hope to get their issues out there and keep the Republicans on message.

Iowa and New Hampshire are but a year away!

Senator Dodd for President

2007-01-17T18:15:00.000-05:00

Christopher Dodd, the senior Senator from Connecticut has decided to run for president. Okay, but why is the next question. He flirted with the idea in 2004 and now thinks the time has come for him to "get out of the bleachers and play on the floor." Too bad that his pickup game is going to be a little short from the other players on the floor.

But I wish him luck. Dodd is a good Northeast liberal. And we all know how successful they are in winning the presidency. What does he have going for him? A prominent father who was also a Senator from Connecticut. Remind you of anyone else?

Good luck, Chris. I like you but I don't see you making it past Super Tuesday.

The 110th Congress Convenes

2007-01-04T19:54:00.000-05:00

History was made today, when the 110th Congress of the United States convened. Members of the House of Representatives elected Nancy Pelosi of California to serve as Speaker of the House. She becomes the first woman ever to hold that position.

The leadership of the House was also announced on the floor:

Majority Leader - Steny Hoyer (MD)
Majority Whip - James Clyburn (SC)
Minority Leader - John Boehner (OH)
Minority Whip - Roy Blunt (MO)

Over on the Senate side, the new Senators were sworn in by Vice President Cheney.

A new day dawned in American politics as the Democrats took control of the entire Congress for the first time in 12 years. Let's hope they can pull it off, or it is likely to be a short majority.

Mitt Romney Joins the Field

2007-01-04T19:47:00.000-05:00

After the nation bade farewell to the 38th President, Gerald Ford, outgoing Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney announced the formation of an exploratory committee in preparation for a run for the Republican nomination for President in 2008.

This has been expected for some time and he joins a field still looking for a front runner. John McCain is still considered the front runner, but, while exploring a run, I continue to maintain that he will ultimately decide not to run.

Romney's religion may be a hurdle for him and he is not well liked by the conservative wing of the party. However, he has proved a good administrator in Massachusetts. Romney also has a good political pedigree. His father was George Romney, Republican Governor of Illinois and unsuccessful presidential candidate in 1968. Romney joins several others in the Republican party: who have already declared their candidacies or have formed exploratory committees:

Senator Sam Brownback (KS)
Rudy Giuliani
Congressman Duncan Hunter (CA)
Senator John McCain (AZ)
Secretary Tommy Thompson

An End of the Year Recap - Democrats

2006-12-27T23:25:00.001-05:00

Here is a year-end look at who is in and out for the Democratic nomination for the presidency:

IN:

Dennis Kucinich - the Ohio Congressman has jumped into the race yet again. He believes the Democrats are not being anti-war enough for his tastes.
Tom Vilsack - the popular governor of Iowa (home of the first caucuses) has declared and is off and running. Enjoy the attention now, for it won't last.

EXPLORING:

Joe Biden - the Delaware Senator has done this before. He should know better. It won't work this time either.
John Edwards - his website announced his candidacy before he did. A clear party favorite, can he make people forget that he was John Kerry's running mate in 2004?
Bill Richardson - the New Mexico governor would be the first Hispanic candidate. From a red state, he could certainly make the Democrats sit up and take notice.

RUMORS:

Wesley Clark - a contender in 2004, he brings military gravitas to the party. Can he get his message out now?
Hillary Clinton - I like her. She's a fine Senator. But please, stay there. Make a career in the Senate. You could be the first woman Majority Leader. Please?
Christopher Dodd - the Connecticut Senator is making noise. For now, that's all it is.
Al Gore - he says he's not running. If he does, he can always say that he one in 2000 and he is just trying to get back in the front door.
John Kerry - he will turn 65 in 2008, he will be up for reelection. Will someone whisper in his ear to go away?
Barack Obama - he's well spoken, he's good looking, he's African-American, he's young, and he's inexperienced. By all means, let's call him the front runner.

OUT:

Evan Bayh - the Senator from Indiana formed an exploratory committee and then declared he would not be a candidate. Too bad. He could have been a serious contender.
Tom Daschle - the former South Dakota Senator should think about running to return to the Senate if Tim Johnson decides to retire after his health scare.
Howard Dean - the screamer has done a good job as DNC Chair. He wants to keep that job and help elect the next president, which he says will not be him.
Russ Feingold - the Wisconsin Senator announced he would enjoy being in the majority and work for the people from the Senate and not on the presidential campaign trail.
Mark Warner - the former Virginia governor said his family asked him not to run. Again, a candidate from a red state, with deep pockets, he could have been a serious contender. An excellent VP choice.